I will break this post into two parts, first detailing what I saw number-wise from live and PTR going into Tuesday and then what went live this week. This will give context to the analysis, as it is crucial to know that Frost was even stronger on the PTR than Live. Next, I will offer feedback on the unintended consequences of these nerfs and touch on some points to consider for Frost in the future.
Who am I? I write the Frost guide for Wowhead and have done much of the SimC development for Frost in The War Within, from code implementation to the action priority list. Sometimes, I write posts on the forums to provide data-backed feedback on unhealthy trends.
Numbers
Single target sims were a standard 240-360s patchwerk fight. AoE sims were done with DungeonRoute set up with a +10 Necrotic Wake, no raid buffs, and three lust uses. All Post-Nerf numbers are done with an updated APL that optimizes for the Deathbringer changes, so the nerf numbers will be shown as less than a if we raw damage comparison based on AP coefficients alone.
I wrote this post before the unintended Soul Rupture buff was reverted. To account for that, knock ~1% more off of the AoE builds.
| Single Target | PTR DPS Pre-Nerf | PTR DPS Post-Nerf | % Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breath of Sindragosa Deathbringer | 1,658,118 | 1,501,942 | -9.4% |
| Shattering Deathbringer | 1,561,989 | 1,425,207 | -8.8% |
| Shattering Rider of the Apocalypse | 1,456,775 | 1,422,005 | -2.4% |
| AoE | PTR DPS Pre-Nerf | PTR DPS Post-Nerf | % Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breath of Sindragosa Deathbringer | 1,762,262 | 1,649,973 | -6.4% |
| Shattering Deathbringer | 1,728,157 | 1,635,730 | -5.4% |
| Shattering Rider of the Apocalypse | 1,713,709 | 1,678,996 | -2.0% |
Now lets look at the same nerfs, compared to the state of Frost on Live servers last reset.
| Single Target | Live DPS Pre-Nerf | Live DPS Post-Nerf | % Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breath of Sindragosa Deathbringer | 1,506,439 | 1,496,757 | -0.6% |
| Shattering Deathbringer | 1,468,060 | 1,420,999 | -3.2% |
| Shattering Rider of the Apocalypse | 1,458,501 | 1,422,005 | -2.4% |
| AoE | Live DPS Pre-Nerf | Live DPS Post-Nerf | % Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breath of Sindragosa Deathbringer | 1,691,585 | 1,649,973 | -2.8% |
| Shattering Deathbringer | 1,742,434 | 1,635,730 | -6.1% |
| Shattering Rider of the Apocalypse | 1,706,272 | 1,678,996 | -2.0% |
Conclusions from the numbers:
Our dominant build gets through largely untouched. Looking at the PTR numbers pre-nerf, it is clear that Frost would be out of control, especially the Breath of Sindragosa build dominating the meta right now. Gains ranged from 8-10%. Looking at the difference in live numbers from 11.0.2 to 11.0.5, we see Blizzard succeeded in offsetting the gains they did not intend to give Frost. We lost a bit of AoE damage, but frankly, it was hard to say we didn’t deserve it. Especially with how much damage Icy Death Torrent did for being a pure passive node with no thought required.
However, I think nerfing Obliterate was a step too far. Breath of Sindragosa is the best spot to take advantage of the new Deathbringer tree since it can dump a large amount of Shadowfrost damage off the GCD to take advantage of Dark Talons and Wave of Souls buffed with Swift and Painful. On top of that, it can pop Reaper’s Mark rapidly to get a good overlap of the Swift and Painful % Strength buff with Pillar of Frost. Non-Breath builds cannot get as strong an overlap, so we see Shattering Deathbringer take a hit.
Meanwhile, Rider of the Apocalypse takes a full-on hit. The Deathbringer nerfs cannot bridge the gap between the Hero Talents when Rider also falls. Rider will continue to decline as the expansion continues due to poor secondary stat scaling. Deathbringer benefits from our Mastery on every single effect, while Rider lacks Mastery scaling in any form on half the Horsemen.
2H Frost also takes a disproportionately large nerf from this, dropping 2.5%-5% depending on Rider vs Deathbringer. It benefits the least from Deathbringer, having no good ways to take advantage of extra Shadowfrost damage due to the bulk of its damage being Frost-based abilities with Rune costs. Much like Blood, it takes a significant nerf with the nerf to Deathbringer. 2H was already struggling, and with the nerf to Obliterate, it is relegated to the bin. It goes past the point of being suboptimal but an option for those who love it. It is now a straight-up bad build with no upside.
If Frost sees further tuning, please revert the Obliterate nerf. Most eyes are on the Breath of Sindragosa build and its dominant place in the meta, but its niche remains cloudy as other specs like Elemental Shaman are going through rapid changes. How nerfing the entire spec will badly affect the off-meta builds isn’t cloudy. Talent diversity will be stifled.
P.S.
Why did Blood eat a nerf for this as well? Every effect in the Deathbringer spell data is split out for Blood and Frost, each spec with its own AP coefficients. Nerfing Blood makes no sense when the blue post called out Frost as the problem.