Toss hits 43% in GM

Do you mean like this? https://i.imgur.com/jKnVZeu.png. Notice how Protoss performance is basically neutral for all of LotV, then is overwhelmingly positive at the 2020 mark. You know, right after they delete the infested terran which was zerg’s only efficiency play vs skytoss.

That’s a common misconception and it stems from a misunderstanding in how rating systems work. When Protoss is favored, their performance goes up, which gives them a higher ranking in PvZ, and this effect bleeds over into other matchups. That’s because the probability of facing a zerg changes with respect to PvZ strength and that creates ranking deflation in general for all zerg matchups. The opposite is true for Protoss. There are more protoss playing more games, this creates a ranking inflation. This same effect is why the Grandmaster threshold is so low (4800) compared times in the past (5500). In the past, players were more active. When you change the activity level of a race in tournaments, by knocking out the players, it causes ranking deflation/inflation.

So we expect higher and more clustered performance, which is exactly what the data shows. We don’t expect a skew in PvZ rankings relative to other matchups, because that’s just not how the system works on a fundamental level. PvZ performance has a bleed-through effect that prevents that from happening. In order for there to be no bleed-through effect, there would have to be absolutely no co-dependency between PvZ performance and PvT/PvP, and that’s just not how it works. The matchups are definitely co-dependent because a PvZ can affect the probability of the other matchups occuring.

Because performance goes up in general, not just PvZ, it’s hard to assert whether this Protoss is simply more skilled or if it’s balance. You’d expect a Protoss to have a higher PvZ ranking than PvT but that’s not necessarily true as I have shown. So how do you tell the difference between a genuinely higher skilled player and one boosted by PvZ? That’s where the bradford hill criteria enter the chat:

This is why I keep emphasizing the fact that there are 6200 mmr Protoss GMs who don’t use hotkeys. There is a strong correlation between # of hotkeys used and SC2 performance, and that trend is highly skewed in the Protoss population. Protoss in GM have skill metrics similar to Masters-2 level zergs, and that just doesn’t happen unless Masters-2 level Protoss are being boosted into GM by PvZ. The same trend exists in APM, EPM, screen movements, spending skill, etc (https://i.imgur.com/wpOiKMQ.png, https://i.imgur.com/4KIy1M3.png, https://i.imgur.com/d2SXoFm.png, https://i.imgur.com/enGARya.png). It’s simply a fact that Protoss is highly favored by balance.

TLDR
Not only do Protoss have higher and more clustered performance, the skill metrics are highly skewed within the protoss population which is equivalent to saying less skilled players achieve higher rankings with protoss, and this trend is universally true for all known skill metrics. Protoss is overpowered. Nerf it.

Lol again @ Eli-liar saying I provided “no reason or evidence”. Lmao. When do you think he will apologize, or are my expectations just too high?

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