… of the theory that Zergs popularity at the pro level is caused by Zerg being over-powered:
This chart shows the average ELO for each player vs the matchup specific ELOs for each player. This is for all players in Aligulac with at least 100 games in each matchup. As you can see, at every point along the graph, players are better vs Zerg.
The theory that a bunch of lesser Zerg players have been boosted into the pro scene is wrong and this chart proves it definitively. If that were the case, we’d see a severe skew in this chart - as ELO decreased we’d see vs Zerg ELOs drop. That isn’t the case. Performance vs zerg is consistent throughout the pro scene, and zerg is consistently the weakest race in the pro scene.
More people play zerg at the pro level, and that’s a product of a factor other than balance, unless you want to argue that being a weaker race increases the number of players who play that race (absurd).
EDIT:
While I am at it, why stop here? Here are some tables.
Per-matchup ELO rankings:
ELO
vs Terran
vs Protoss
vs Zerg
Terran
295.4125342
270.9423969
317.9549696
Protoss
270.5957812
238.7107053
277.7051112
Zerg
281.9219276
259.929215
286.7139381
Per-matchup ELO deltas (example: ZvT ELO minus TvZ ELO)
I just added some more data. The difference between ZvT-TvZ ELO is 26% of the average Zerg players rank. The difference between ZvP-PvZ ELO is 13% of the average Zerg players rank. This is significant. Zerg is the weakest race by a large margin. If you think BL+infestor is balanced, I’ve got news for you - this clearly indicates it is too weak.
TvP is 270.9 vs PvT’s 270.6. Aka, the definition of perfectly balanced. Yet, all we hear about is how OP Protoss is and how the infestor needs to be nerfed. Time to stop balancing according to the outrage-mob’s wishes and use evidence and logic. The few whiny Terran streamers on Twitch shouldn’t have complete control over Blizzard’s balance decisions.
Unless you are Serral, zerg is trash, and needs buffs. Bring back the mutalisk, and I mean bring it back FOR REAL this time. That would be a good solution.
Honestly, never seen this ELO of yours here in SC before. And it seems its you doing it, which means its about as credible as my socks.
Oh, look! I did research! And it seems it favours my point even if RL results point other way! Not enough? Wait a bit… Look! Added more data to make it look even better for me!
Aligulac’s data is publicly available so feel free to download it, prune players with fewer than 100 games played, and calculate averages. It’s not rocket science. This post makes plenty of claims that, should they be wrong, would be easy to falsify. You could go even farther and calculate player rankings from the match history. That will take more technical knowledge but would still be very easy to do if you know how.
The whiners narrative blown to smithereens with FACTS and LOGIC and all you hear are crickets. I think they know they are done for - massive zerg buffs are on the horizon!
fine i’ll bite. Why average performance over peak performance? Isn’t peak performance a better indicator of future balance and also who’s most likely to win the tournament.
Do you see a change in this trend line at higher ELO rankings? It stays consistent no matter the ELO range we’re talking about. The problem isn’t that the meta hasn’t shifted; it is that zerg is systematically disadvantaged. Serral is so strong that he defies this trend - the definition of an outlier.
There is a lot of bashing batz here, but you guys forget to credit some things, he is the only one actually providing raw data to back his claims, whatever they are. I do not agree with him in all his claims, but at least he brings something to the table despite the lot of people constantly trying to discredit him.
“Not credible because its him” arguments are baseless in this situation. You want to prove his data wrong? Do the same and bring up data analysis that discredits him. If he is, it should be an easy enough task. He provided the source, hence the only way to prove that it is fraudulent is to do the same analysis yourselves and bring up different results. Only then you can whine that the data is made up.
It is extremely ignorant to try to discredit somebody that posts the actual source of the data without doing the same process to actually prove him wrong. If you cannot be bothered to at least do the same effort to discredit him, then you should be outright ignored. Or, if you do not understand how he processed some simple graphs, then you are not capable enough to comment on the findings.
To be fair, they are completely unequipped to fight in this Arena and they know it. So, telling them to go through the same process to verify the data isn’t exactly convincing in their eyes. They stand no chance at being able to verify the data, so they choose to pick the conclusion they favor the most. It boils down to if they trust me or not, and when I tell them their intuitions are wrong that trust is obviously obliterated.
This is the great challenge of leadership. You have to get the sheeple to trust you which is impossible to do when they know what you are purporting is bad for them, regardless of if it is truthful or not. Even if truthful, they will reject it out of their own interests. This is exactly why politicians are two-faced.
Rogue: “I won because BL Infestor is far too strong. I have nothing to gain by this statement and everything to lose. Further i have greater game knowledge than everyone on the Blizzard SC2 General Discussion forums.”
Batz: “Clearly he’s biased and doesn’t understand the game as well as me.”
Because everyone else does use raw data, such as current win rates in high level tournaments, etc.
We don’t have to delve deep into other faucets of raw data because the overwhelming amount of relevant data is actually in front of our faces. Batz has to do a lot of work to find even the smallest amounts of data that can even come close to backing up his agenda-based statements.
Rogue won the GSL using infestors as one of his backbones.
Batz must therefore scrounge the the depths of different data avenues to counter such an obvious and true fact. He will even do so in spite of Rogue admitting that infestors was one of the major reasons why he won.
As said before, its because the data thats clear and obvious already supports a massive position against zerg (and infestors in general), and therefore data to prove our point that infestors are an issue are vastly obvious, such as the last GSL finals, where Batz has to pull whatever obscure stats he can find out there in the ether.
