Serral is 56-0 on EU

General Discussion
1

I have never seen something like that before. Serral is top 3 on EU GM ladder, and his record is 56-ZERO, as of 24.07.2024. Not a single loss! XD

2

quit knob gobbling the pros.

2 Likes
3

Honestly, Serral is so good it’s a balance problem lol.

4

If he plays like that more, they will prolly nerf Zerg again. :slight_smile:

5

I don’t know what’s going to happen. They might need to start amputating Serral’s fingers. Zerg can’t take many more hits.

6

Serral is 56-0 on EU

Absolutely false, and easily verified:

https://sc2pulse.nephest.com/sc2/?type=character&id=340879485&m=1#player-stats-matches

He lost to reynor, heromarine, and mana in recent games. The loss to mana is in particular rather interesting because there is a 7119-6307=812 mmr difference between the two players (https://i.imgur.com/OeOGSbp.png). Nowhere in Serral’s recent rank history does he lose to the same mmr range vs a terran or zerg, so it’s an odd result. Let’s crunch some numbers. The mmr algorithm is defined in the alphastar paper, and can tell us the expected win-rate based on mmr differences:

P(SerralWin) = 1.0 / (1 + e ^-(SerralMmr - ManaMmr)/400)
P(SerralWin) = 1.0 / (1 + e ^-(7119-6307)/400)
P(SerralWin) = 0.884

So Serral is supposed to have an 88.4% chance to beat Mana, but lost. Interesting. What’s even crazier is that if this were due to pure luck, there is a 43% chance it would happen vs a Protoss because EU gm is 43% protoss, so the probability a protoss of this mmr range could beat serral is extremely low at (1.0 - 0.884) * 0.43 = 0.04988 aka 5%. So there is a 1 in 20 odds this could happen which isn’t very likely. Similar calculations in Grandmaster reveal that Protoss has a +300 mmr advantage in PvZ thanks to balance, this is what causes Protoss to dominate grandmaster, so how does that change the mana vs serral match? Would it make the outcome more plausible? Let’s find out:

P(SerralWin) = 1.0 / (1 + e ^-(SerralMmr - ManaMmr)/400)
P(SerralWin) = 1.0 / (1 + e ^-(7119-(6307+300))/400)
P(SerralWin) = 0.782

Including the chance that it’s protoss: (1.0 - 0.782) * 0.43 = 9.4%. Aka, even with a +300 mmr balance advantage, the result is still unlikely.

Serral’s performance history does not support the theory that Zerg is overpowered, in fact it supports the exact opposite: Protoss are taking games off of serral despite massive differences in mmr, and this is inline with the rest of the data, about the pro scene & grandmaster, that indicate protoss is advantaged in PvZ.

2 Likes
7

LMAO

One guy miraculously wins despite that his race is considered “underpowered” according to people who play this race.
The reason why Serral wins and other 3 zergs in the past are queens and queens alone ! Nerf queens and his dominance will fade in no time.

8

Nah it’s all skill issue.

1 Like
9

In a Terran map pool, imagine we get the Zerg favorite map pool back.

10

Anyway, Serral destroyed Maru twice, like Maru is a complete noob.

So the question is, is Serral suddenly much better than Maru?? Or something is not right here??

11

Serral let his 7.5k MMR account go inactive so his MMR reset. He had to work back to top gm from ~4k mmr.

12

That’s hilarious. It’s also why the mmr of the ladder is contracting. Players are going inactive, losing a bunch of mmr due to mmr decay, and coming back. They then get back to their old skill level pretty fast, taking mmr away from people in the process. That’s why GM used to start at 5500 and now it can be as low as 4200.

3 Likes