It’s a shame that top terrans keep losing to a build that has been around for a decade & which has a known, ez pz, defense. They haven’t even been scouting for it. I keep saying, over and over, on these forums that dark gets half is wins by taking 3 gas, making 8 roaches, and coinflipping a ling flood allin or drones. He’s been doing it for years.
We got terrans dying to basic cheese builds and protoss losing 7 void rays to a single bile wave when 1 more apm could’ve saved them. Zergs get to win games because their opponents allow it. Did you see the singular archon kill 4 tempests because hero stopped microing them in range of an archon that had been neuralled? Things are just happening so fast that the players can’t process what’s happening. It’s a soup of visual information & they focus on the wrong thing.
https://i.imgur.com/K4Mz3iv.png
0.978: 'Serral'. 0.841-0.137
0.602: 'herO'. 0.043-0.559
0.398: 'Clem'. 0.111-0.287
0.022: 'Dark'. 0.005-0.017
Semi finals:
1.000: 'Dark'. 0.022-0.978
1.000: 'Serral'. 0.978-0.022
1.000: 'herO'. 0.602-0.398
1.000: 'Clem'. 0.398-0.602
Updated for the finals. The players’ rankings have been updated based on their match history in the other rounds. Serral’s odds to win have gone down substantially since he struggled to beat Hero 3-2. Hero’s PvZ and PvT rank have both gone up, giving him much better odds to win. He’s more likely to make it past Clem (60% chance) due to that. So probably Hero v Serral finals favoring Serral with a 94.4% chance to win. If Hero loses to clem, serral is favored to win at 73.5%.
In the off chance that Dark claps Serral, hero has a 74.7% chance to win if it’s hero in the finals, and clem has an 85% chance to win if it’s him in the finals. But there’s 6:1 odds that serral wins another 
tournament. I doubt Dark will win based on a video pig put out where dark was playing in an online tournament vs solar and was playing super lazy / not bothering to scout and making some basic mistakes. So I think the model is spot on for dark’s odds to win.
Again, to all those reading this, this is for entertainment purposes only and comes with absolutely no warranty. Use it at your own risk.
Clem will have a wrist injury during practice and ask Byun to step in. To give credit where credit is due Her0 played really well since his match against Serral and considering that there’s no more map veto’s I’m feeling an upset is incoming.
The coinflip is if they see a 3 cc or not. The reason Inno was able to stop it way back when was because 2 base allins were super common and Serral didn’t get the scout off.
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My program underestimated Serral’s suicidal commitment to the nerfed baneling. The baneling was bad before being nerfed and now it’s giga trash after the nerfs and he’s still massing them even though they can’t ever even get in range of the bio. Then he makes an infestor, gets a single fungal and clean sweeps fights ez pz but somehow it never clicks that maybe he should stop making banes and make infestors instead. Plus microbial helps out vs the libs and neural helps out vs the tanks. Infestors also have evasion, which banelings just don’t have.
APM spammers gonna spam that apm, even if it means losing hundreds of thousands of dollars. SC2 just isn’t a strategy game anymore. How on earth can the top zerg not realize how bad banelings are unless he has zero strategical understanding of the game. How did he get to the top, then? Well, he’s an apm spammer and sc2 is a game of spamming apm.