The state of PvZ is a complete joke right now. Denver, of all people clears both Neeb and Showtime in IEM EU qualifier. This guy isn’t even a professional player, yet he is rolling over top tier EU protoss.
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He beats Harstem day earlier and all pro Protoss loose to all terrans as well. So Balance team attention is needed. No pro eu Protoss can at least fight for later stages…Neeb included.
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I haven’t considered either neeb or showtime a top player for a couple years now. They’re probably better than Denver but not nearly as much as you are making it out to be. Not even serral has a 70% win-rate and even with a 70% win-rate you are bound to lose 30% of your games. This means sometimes you will lose. That’s just how it works.
I actually just looked it up and Denver has 6778 MMR on EU while Neeb has 6786 and Showtime 6940. Denver winning is nothing out of the ordinary at all.
Serral looks to be in trouble, though, his KR rank has dropped by 200-300 MMR.
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IEM Katowice 2020 qualifiers so far :
EU : 0 P 1 T 2 Z
NA : 1 P 1 T 1 Z
KR : 1 P 1 T 1 Z
I don’t think we can, reasonnably, expect a better racial distribution.
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ok ok you will see it in IEM if you can’t see it now. Protoss has no chance even for quaterfinals.
Just for your information: Stats qualified through PvP, Zest through PvP and PvT vs his best friend TY he knows for years and he was his team mate in KT rolster. All other protosses worldwide have failed.
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EDIT: Updated to include new chart.
ORIGINAL POST:
Since you are interested, why don’t we take a look at the whole pro scene and not a single cherry picked example?
| ELO | vs Terran | vs Protoss | vs Zerg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terran | 294.7314214 | 280.4771727 | 320.5823781 |
| Protoss | 276.3619643 | 243.3043588 | 287.7051532 |
| Zerg | 285.2214822 | 260.8035641 | 295.4561684 |
| ELO Delta | vs Terran | vs Protoss | vs Zerg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terran | 0 | 4.11520838 | 35.36089591 |
| Protoss | -4.11520838 | 0 | 26.90158909 |
| Zerg | -35.36089591 | -26.90158909 | 0 |
| Average ELO Delta (% of average) | vs Terran | vs Protoss | vs Zerg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terran | 0 | 2.756362929 | 23.68469676 |
| Protoss | -3.058226727 | 0 | 19.99197882 |
| Zerg | -25.21332286 | -19.18159689 | 0 |
Terran: 3% vs Protoss, +24% vs Zerg.
Protoss: -3% vs Terran, +19% vs Zerg.
Zerg: -25% vs Terran, -19% vs Protoss.
Conclusion: Zergs are struggling in all matchups, Protoss is struggling slightly vs Terran.
Because “single cherry” is games for $400, 000 prize after patchterran and your stats is just ladder without even dates.
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These trends come from the actual pro games themselves. You start every player with 0 for their rank, then go through every game played in the history of SC2 and adjust their rank up or down based on whether they won or lost the game, with the size of the adjustment scaled according to the rank difference between the players. You do this for every game ever played, in chronological order, until the present day. These rankings can be used to predict win-rates between players with accuracy, which means the rankings accurately reflect actual player performance.
What the rankings are that I posted are averages of the pool of active players. I filter the pro scene by certain criteria (has to have played a pro game recently, for example) and this creates a set of people from which an average can be calculated. The “delta” is simply the difference between one race’s average in a matchup and the other races average. When scaled as a percentage of the average, it gives a good indicator for how all players of that race are performing on average.
This means if we were to create a typical tournament (typical as in similar to the ones that produced this data) Zerg players would be destroyed due to their low odds of winning on average. When the average TvZ is 320.5823781 and ZvT is 285.2214822, it equates to a 45% win-rate for Zergs.
1 Like
You’re right on this, I would argue KT rolster was a long time ago tho, and you might be as close as you want from the guy, beating TY 3-1 is impressive !
TO adress OP, while loosing to Denver, Neeb also 2-0 TLO and Solar.
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The KT rolster comment he made is nothing more than a special pleading fallacy. He’s saying a Protoss got a free win from an ex-teammate, but if being an ex-teamate gives you a free win why wasn’t it the Terran who received the free win and not the protoss? The reasoning has to be applied equally to all scenarios or you have a special pleading fallacy:
Special pleading: Applying standards, principles, and/or rules to other people or circumstances, while making others exempt from the same critical criteria, despite the situations being similar (or even identical), without providing adequate justification as to why the rules apply to one and not the other. Special pleading is often a result of strong emotional beliefs that interfere with reason.
S.d. please
20 characters
Are you used to give average values to your employers/customers without giving standard deviations too?
We’ve also had Rogue lose to Skillous and Innovation to Zoun.
You can’t take a single run of a qualifier as being evidence of any broad balance claim.
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reason for this could be, that he was inactive between hsc and like week 2 of january. so he didnt played for ~ a month and just started to ladder again.
i expect serral to do really well in iem. one thing that came directly to my mind watching the iem qualifiers so far is, that we almost didnt saw any lurker usage. so either pros think, that theyre not that usefull (while hsc was dominated by lurker gameplay), or we will see the “real” strategies with lurkers at iem. wouldnt surprise me, since no zerg really wanna show their hands right at the qualifiers to give oppoents time to prepare for that.
so i execpt especially serral and reynor to come up with a new lurker meta. so if even an inactive old-meta kinda serral can beat a cure, he most likely will crush through the iem bracket, once in shape and meta again. i just hope that we will finally get a bo5 between serral and maru, since maru looking good recently.
i wouldn’t call denver a no name, definitely recognize his name… has played in a quite a few WCS and isn’t a push over. you know some people actually get better…
Zoun is an upcoming and rising player since 2019… Denver has been out of shape for years now, if he didn’t play Zerg he wouldn’t even be a top 200 player to be fair.
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well, people in this forum were also surprised by dark finally winning a gsl lol. even tho, he was top4 for multiple years/gsl seasons. imagine what would have happened, if he would have managed, to qualify somehow.
such claims are easy to say, but are impossible to proof. so to say something like “player xyz would be far worse with race abc” is just nonsense.
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Having actually seen some of the games, Denver’s form is the best it’s been in memory, and never-the-less, Zoun is a relative no-name on the tournament scene.
You say one is out of shape and the other is up and coming based purely on what makes your argument stick, not on their form or any reasonable metric. They are both often looked-over players who have done well recently, you’re just making a distinction here so you can support your whine.
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Stop lying please. If you do not know Zest and TY are friends outside of Starcraft and usually they are sparring partners, also with Stats. You can see it on their stream if you have follow them btw. What I said was not a “free win” or any other of your nonsense. I said that Zest knows TY’s playstyle and knows how to play vs him cause of hours of practice. I have no idea why you deny obvious things. If you play vs someone you know how to play against vs someone new it is different things…
Thank you for not using imgur 