More accurate fact check: Zerg wins every premier tournament

General Discussion
101

This is eating away at my conscience. I’m sorry to anyone and everyone who I mislead. I uploaded a chart that I switched Terran and Zerg on the legend key.

Photoshopped version:
https ://imgur. com/a/wW7gL7e

Original unedited chart:
http ://aligulac. com/misc/balance/

I think some people may have figured this out and played along with my facade, but some people probably didn’t and dug their heels in their position. The forum did indeed get much quieter after I posted the fake chart, which did make me feel there was some bullying here.

This makes me a hypocrite as I wanted to argue in good faith only, so why would I do this? Because I just want this to be charade of a debate (which truly ended a while ago) to be done. Because we all know Batz had his “facts” debunked but he refutes any contradictory evidence. I wanted to present an unbiased algorithm that estimates race balance, but I knew Batz wouldn’t accept it unless one of two things happened:

  1. It did indeed show Zerg to not be OP.
  2. I made the chart look like it shows Zerg to not be OP.

Batz is on record blasting everything he disagrees with as unfactual. To now turn around and disagree with this algorithm ONLY AFTER learning it doesn’t support his beliefs would shred his entire argument of only him and no one else accepting the facts and statistics.

This was way too dirty and dishonest, so I would like to extend to RabiDrone an opportunity to bow out of this debate and maintain your honor on the grounds that I presented false evidence to you and therefore the onus was on me, not you, for this. You aren’t gonna get a better chance than this.

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102

Cappa just RKO’d Batz

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103

All the best players in the world try to play every premier tournament they can in order to get wcs points to qualify for blizzcon.

Alot of top players play few and some dont even play in minor or even major tournaments.

These are just facts, and if these are correct that means premier tournaments will always have every single player good enough try to play and win with their best strategies no mather what.

Minor tournaments and even some major tournaments are often online daily or weekly tournaments usually with alot smaller pricepools than premier tournaments.

Going by this logic, lets take a look at what would happen if 2 players are to face off in a minor tournament and then lets say a week later one or both players are going to play a more serious match like wcs or gsl. The player that has a premier match will obviously want to save their best strategies for the more serious match and by that not even play at their full capeabilities in the major/minor tournament to begin with.

For your statement that minor and major tournaments have any kind of evenly distributed skill among the players just look at coopa america as one of the most obvious examples of a single player dominating a tournament for several years.

Also im not sure if your aware but apperently wardiis map contest tournaments count as major. I assume i dont have to explain why a tournament held on maps not even tested yet shouldnt even be considered into win rates as mutch as a premier tournament.

Im not going to go trough over 1000 different minor or major tournaments but i assume now as I have at the very least pointed out 2 tournaments that for obvious reasons should be looked away from and if you agree that a player has no incentive to bring their agame for a major online tournament when they are going to be playing a premier soon after (to save strategies), then we can also agree that even when players of equal skill meet in majors or minors it doesnt even mather since theyre not playing as good as possible.

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104

I challenge you to list even a single point that was supposedly debunked. You won’t be able to because there weren’t any.

It doesn’t estimate racial balance. Lmao. It measures meta shifts. It tells how balance is changing, not where balance is at. I pointed this out and this makes it unacceptable for measuring balance.

Kid, I didn’t accept it. That kinda blows a giant hole in your narrative. I rejected a data source that said exactly what you claim I want to hear and I made fun of someone who did accept it.

105

Is Zerg winning 3x more tournaments compared to the other races individually in a single year good for the game?

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106

Lying isn’t an argument. Cappa lied about the data, I rejected it, then he lied saying I accepted the data and that I only accepted it because it confirms my position. I rejected it even though it confirmed my position and mocked someone who did accept it. Now you are lying and saying he won the debate. I’ve won this debate so hard. I haven’t seen this big of a fail since the troll nomufftotuff.

You guys can’t win on fair grounds in a debate and have to cheat, and even then you still can win. Pathetic! Come back when you have an actual argument.

107

This is what happens when you try to argue with someone so intellectually inferior to you. They simply lack the IQ to understand they’ve lost the debate. Batz will continue to think he won, so long as shining pillars of intellect like Goba stroke his ego.

He lost this debate before it even started, he’s trying really hard to understand what’s going on, he just can’t quite keep up.

It’s okay, big guy. Just keep rereading and you’ll get there eventually. I believe in you.

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108

You know that better than anyone here.

Zerg must always be UP even if they destroy Protoss heavily in ZvP and win most of the 2019 premier tournaments. Also we got to nerf Terran, because Terran shouldn’t win anything in LOTV because they won in WoL.

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109

Its kind of silly how he tries to argue zerg being weak while theyre dominating top level more than any race has ever done before in sc2 history.

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110

You want to get rekt, ok.

rabiDrone: Each participant on average should have 1/totalNumberOfPlayers odds of winning the tournament. In a round of 32 tournaments, each player on average will have 1/32=3.125% chance of winning the whole tournament.

No, they don’t.

What you presenting as odds of winning is most likely an odds o fmeating opponent in the Ro32. “Most likely” because none of the stages in the tournament are battel Royal. Tournament have 2 types of matches group matches and 1vs 1 matches those we should use “Combinations without repetition”.

For group stage: X!/(4! * (X-4))!
And chance or probability is 1/(X!/(4! * (X-4))!)

X is the number of players

For example
Ro32: 32!/(4! * (32-4))!
probability: 1/(32!/(4! * (32-4))!)

For Player vs Player stage: X!/(1! * (X -1)!)
And chance or probability is 1/(X!/(1! * (X -1)!))
X is the number of players

so for q-finals:8!/(1! * (8 -1)!)
probability: 1/(8!/(1! * (8 -1)!))

The chance of the player winning a tournament is equal to the lowest chance player has to pass the stages.

the equation is: 100 * player skill level/(sum of both player skill levels)

example from 2019 WCS Fall Playoffs.
Skill level taken from aligulac as it is the best available representation of players skills

Has(PvP: 2131) vs ButAlways(PvP: 1807)
–Has had: 100* 2131/(2131 + 1807) = 54% chance of wining match

Has(PvT: 2230) vs Special(TvP: 2603) = 43%
–Has had: 100* 2230/(2230+ 2603) = 43% chance of wining match

vs Serral or Raynor this chance will be lower
Has had: less than 43% chance of winning each match

Has had at Ro16 only 43% of winning the tournament

**
Serral(ZvP:3199, ZvT:3132, ZvZ:3198) vs
vs Denver(ZvZ: 2353)
vs HeRoMaRinE (TvZ:2677)
vs Neeb(PvZ:2798)
vs Raynor(ZvZ:2891)

Serral had at worst a 51% chance of winning the tournament.

rabiDrone: The odds for a race to win a tournament is a product of the participants. If each player has a 1/32 odds to win, then if there are 10 zergs, zerg collectively should have 10/32 odds to win. Not rocket science, just basic math.

No, the odds of Race winning tournament are equal to the odds the best player of this race has to win the tournament.

–Zerg have the highest chance of winning the tournaments if Serral is present
–Terran has the highest chance of winning the tournament if Serral is not present but Maru is present.
–Protoss highest chance of winning the tournament if is Stats is present and 8 players above him are not preset

rabiDrone: The tournaments on average were 25.7% Terran, 31% Protoss, 42.9% zerg.

rabiDrone: 575 of these tournaments were won by Terrans (29%). 868 were won by Zergs (43%). 569 were won by Protoss (28%).

rabiDrone: Zergs win 42.9% of tournaments while making up 43% of tournaments. That is perfectly balanced. That means every zerg in a round of 32 tournament will have a 1/32=3.125% chance to win.

rabiDrone: Protoss win 29% when they ought to win 31%. Protoss is underpowered.

rabiDrone: Terrans win 29% of tournaments when they should only win 25.7. Terran is overpowered, quite probably vs protoss. In a round of 32 tournament, there would be an average of 8.224 terran players who collectively have a 29% chance to win the whole tournament. This means each player has a 3.5% chance to win the tournament on average, when a fair win-rate would be 1/32=3.125%.

rabiDrone: We can punch the Terran data into [https://www.stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx] to calculate how confident we are in Terran being OP. This could happen by chance, so we need to know what the odds are that it did happen by chance. This yields a 0.011% chance that this occurred by chance. There is a 99.989% chance Terran is overpowered.

if I remember Aligulac database model their event is defined as a Round(Ro32, Ro16, q-finals, etc) and the tournament is defined as a group of rounds. But I could be wrong, so I go to pages _Portal:Tournaments - Liquipedia - The StarCraft II Encyclopedia and guess what there are 499 tournaments registered in 2019.

Yes, I Copy-past all tournaments to excel to check.

So to recap
–Your understanding of Aligulac database model is very bad.
–You take incorrect eqation to calculate odds of winning
–You do not check your data
–Your understanding of Tournament model is none existant

Conclusion
Your wall of text is BS from beginning to the end

Sincerely
Your friendly protoss player

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111

Except I proved that thoroughly. Are you going to say the evidence is wrong? 32 people in a tournament and 1 of them wins. That’s 1/32.

Has would have a 64% chance to win a best of 1, a 70% for a best of 3, and a 75% chance of winning a best of 5, and a 78% chance of winning a best of 7. Your math is wrong.

This is blatantly wrong. The odds of any zerg winning is the sum of all individual zergs individual odds of winning. If a zerg has a 1% chance to win, he’d win one in every hundred. If serral has a 50% chance to win, he wins 50 in 100. The total odds would be, assuming these are the only zergs in the tournament, 1% + 50% = 51%.

Sorry, but where is the evidence? Your inability to understand that the probability space sums to 1 doesn’t beat an argument that is logically correct and empirically verified. Saying that the odds that any zerg will win is equal to the odds of the best zerg winning is synonymous with same the sum of all the probabilities doesn’t equal 1. That is a stance that is contrary to basic laws of probability theory.

112

I quoted your words before I responded so no you didn’t write what you claim. but to answer your question Yes, 1 out of 32 participants will be a winner but the probability of winning is not 1/32 because:

A) The player only plays 9 matches(1v1) in total, not 32 as you suggest
B) The skill level has an impact on the match.

Provide equation and we can talk.

[quote=“tEhbAtZ-1845, post:111, topic:4068”]
This is blatantly wrong.

WTF! I can’t believe you say out loud. Please read what Tournament is before you embrace yourself even more.

_Tournament - Wikipedia

Evidence of what that Players having different skill levels?
Every Tournament, match and round is proof of that.

In tournament football, basketball, StrongMan, SC2 each match is treaten as individual competition between participants not a group competition like relay-race.

So if you have Person who can lift a Tank

A read for you: _Liberal Arts College in Wilson, NC | Barton College

113

I never said a player has to play 32 matches. I said a player has to play 5 because I was using round of 32 tournaments which by definition are 2^5=32 aka 5 rounds.

With an adequate sample size the skill representation per race averages out resulting in 50/50 odds to win on average.

Ea = 1 / (1 + 10 ^ ((Rb - Ra) / 400))

where
Ea is the ratio of wins for player A.
Ra is the ranking of player A.
Rb is the ranking of player B.

It’s a mathematical fact, so if you disagree then you are ignorant. The probability space always sums to 1, so if you purport that it doesn’t sum to one (which your last argument did) then you are wrong by definition, no evidence necessary. You said the odds for Zerg to win are equal to the odds of the best zerg winning, and that is synonymous with saying the sum of the probability space doesn’t equal 1. That is wrong.

A proper statement would be “The odds of any zerg winning is the sum of the odds of each individual zerg winning.”

So, if there are 3 zergs, and they have the odds of 5%, 9% and 70%; then the odds of Zerg winning is 84%. Your theory would say it was 70%. That is wrong.

That paper agrees with me.

114

Keep in mind you are debating a person who has argued into a corner where he can’t admit 9=(3+3+3) without acknowledging he lost a debate.

So now 3 is no longer less than 9.

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115

i wonder how long this meme will be staying alive lol.

and that just because of the fact, that batz and the other guys were talking about different numbers.

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116

It will stay alive up until batz admits 9=(3+3+3) or 3×3 or 3^2

117

RabidDrone will just spout some nonsense on even greater level and we will catch that. Untill tommorow tho, we can make fun of him withg 3 > 9.

118

Please visit _https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/2019_WCS_Fall

check how many rounds have Ro32 (Stage 2) and do some simple math

I give you a hint: Total number of rounds per group is less than 32.

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119

another thing i do wonder about is, how long it will take, until the first zerg op thread appears, after the wcs starts.

i would bet like something after first map of dark vs showtime. maybe even during the first map. the only thing im not sure about is, which unit will be op this time. the queen? the infestor? the broodlord? the zergling? or even the mighty broodling? i really dont have a clue, but we will see.

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120

Actually RabiDrone is right. Ya’ll are getting over focused when the issue at hand is simply the sample size isn’t large enough to form any kind of firm conclusion.

This is literally statistical analysis 101.