Is it too late to be bigger man and change my mind? Ive been messing around RankedFTW and Aligulac, and I found this formula-based chart made by the creator of Aligulac. OFC it doesn’t automaticall mean Terran is op, but mabye zerg isn’t as strong as I previously thought.
No hate, just being honest here.
https ://imgur. com/a/wW7gL7e
Edit: Each player from his website is assigned an elo score based on how well they perform. If an upset happens between two different races, it has greater weight when calculating the score, because winning isn’t really a 50% chance when it comes to professional sc2.
These charts are really interesting. Have you checked the “balance report” chart? Its really interesting to observe that if you look at all 3 matchups from say 2017 upto now you find the following:
The most biased matchup on average seems to be PvZ which oscillates between 43% and 48% winrate for P (with a couple of brief peaks, one at %51 and one at 52%).
Then there’s TvZ which oscillates between 45% and 50% winrate for T again with a couple of brief peaks at 51-52%
Then there’s TvP which was really badly P favoured at the start of 2017 then oscillated pretty wildly but since may 2018 has oscillated very closely to 50% (maybe with a slight bias towards T ~2%).
I don’t know what kind of model is used for this graph but at least in what it reflects about Zerg it coincides pretty strongly with my intuition. I think if we leave the game now, stop the balance patches and let the meta evolve independently I think we wil discover eventually with a high degree of certainty that Zerg is just better (maybe not overwhelmingly better in that beating it is impossible but still). When you look at this graph it really reinforces this fact. Barring some very brief periods Zerg have had consistent winrates of > 50% in every non-mirror matchup. This translates in the real world to the fact that any newly discovered meta and/or balance change that affects the matchup is figured out eventually (pretty quickly in fact) and Zerg returns to a consistent > 50% winrate.
I don’t see such a big discrepancy, Zerg is still dominating in the performance chart in recent periods. Besides they measure different things. One is about matchups and the other is about performance of individual players. These are correlated no doubt but neither fully determines the other.
Kind of. But they’ve already stated they intend to change the meta drastically once per year.
The thing about the Infestor, is it seems that it only truly benefits the highest pinnacles of the esport. You don’t notice it until you’re staring at a top tier game and the late game is a complete one sided joke. TVZ and especially PVZ are simply not lost in the late game. Prior to that, however, the ease of play seems to favor Protoss most heavily for the majority of the time.
If you look here, you’ll notice Terran has been the runt of the pack for years in terms of GM representation. Since late 2017, Protoss simply dominates it (patch 4.0). And Zerg has been middle of the pack.
“I don’t know how it works, but it agrees with me so it must be right.”
Fyi, it takes glicko deltas and categorizes them by race instead of by player, and uses a smoothing function of some sort. It doesn’t measure balance, it measures change in balance. It shows when the meta shifts but says nothing about balance.
Please, tell us more about how the chart that doesn’t measure balance confirms your balance intuitions.
Lmao. He did the opposite and as a bonus he proved the peope on these forums can’t distinguish between a logically coherent argument and something someone just copied and pasted from random wikipedia snippets. The guy butchered basic terminology.