Well, I tried doing the first 3 minutes of a reaper expo into 1/1/1 hellion/banshee vs. the first 3 minutes of a fast third blink opener. The result?
Terran ended with 25 SCVs, a reaper, and 500 minerals/180 gas (3 minutes being about when the factory finishes and you are about to start 2 hellions and a starport, I was a little sloppy with this build)
Total Mined: 3,200 minerals and 380 gas, 3580 overall
Protoss ended with 2 stalkers, 30 probes, and 215 minerals 38 gas, with warp gate half finished and the twilight having just started.
Total Mined: 3,315 minerals and 288 gas, 3,603 overall
So technically, by 3 minutes when the second orbital has just barely finished, protoss has technically mined more (by 20 minerals, with a sloppy terran opener from me). I suspect if you went to 4 minutes, when the first pair of 2 MULEs expired, it would be terran favored.
I would also point out that it’s only Protoss favored if you count gas and minerals equal, technically it takes the same time to return 4 gas from a refinery than 5 minerals from an over-saturated mineral patch. So at best 4 gas = 5 minerals, and actually more, which means that if you convert 4 gas to 5 minerals you get
Terran: 3,675 mined
Protoss: 3,675 mined
Which is literally identical. Wow, so imba, nerf protoss…