Wow its kind of insane how imbalanced this game is. Zergs only option is to allin every game and these are the highest level pros we have. Protoss is 50% of EU GM currently. Does the balance team smoke crack before they have their meetings?
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I just clapped a 5200 mmr terran. This was after losing to two protoss in a row – one 4900, the other 4600. Look what happens to Protoss army strength given equal economy: https://i.imgur.com/oIcJE4s.png. And they aren’t good players, either: https://i.imgur.com/S7UNiUG.mp4. Their army value skyrockets while using poor micro/positioning/control. How does that work. Protoss has become so powerful that they can F2+aclick through Grandmasters. It’s absolute insanity.
There are several ways to calculate PvZ win-rates. What we want is the PvZ win-rate given equal skill & effort from both players. If you calculate it, using a variety of methods, it comes out to ~70% for toss and 30% for Zerg. That equates to about 300 mmr.
You can calculate this from:
- GM representation (how much MMR is required for the ratio of Z/T/P in GM)
- From GM demotion thresholds.
- Using GM win-rates.
- From tournament representation statistics (either opening round, victors, or finals).
- It can also be calculated from skill metrics (like APM, Screen Movements Per Minute, etc).
They all give the same result. Protoss is favored by ~1/2 standard deviation in performance.
This is wild because Grandmaster is a sigma 3 outcome. That means balance takes a sigma 3.5 zerg and moves him down to 3, and takes a sigma 2.5 protoss and puts him at 3.0. What does this mean, though? 3 .5 sigma is so rare that it happens 1 time in every 5000 people. 2.5 sigma is 1 in 161. Game balance is taking your garden variety top 1% player and makes them play as well as a super genius.
It’s important to remember that SC2 is a game of exponential growth. A small advantage compounds into a massive lead. So the performance difference between two players separated by 1 standard deviation should be absolutely enormous because higher skill nets exponentially larger rewards. In other words, toss is EXTREMELY broken in order to cause a 1 standard deviation difference in performance between Zerg and Protoss.
As you can see, I’ve done some very thorough analyses of SC2 balance, and have even unified the trends from the pro scene and the ladder. The evidence is overwhelming which means we are just playing the waiting game. The “IMbalance” counsel will have to sober-up eventually. They can’t drunk-balance for eternity. I am thinking someone in the pro scene might accuse them of cheating and crap’s gonna get real when lawsuits start flying, lmao. I don’t think they realize there can be real world consequences to this stuff. People could be missing out on real money if balance is insanely broken. I wouldn’t sue because I am not a pro player and I am not giving legal advice here. I am just saying I wouldn’t surprised if that’s a likely outcome.
At a bare minimum, I think it’s irresponsible and unethical to let Protoss dominate like this, and it’s not like they didn’t know toss was like this. Toss has been doing very well in a variety of statistics for quite some time. GM dominance goes back to 2020. In my estimation, they extended that dominance from merely PvZ to include PvT (from the latest patch). What on Earth are they doing. It’s genuinely baffling. It’s not like it’s hard to balance a game, either. We can definitely say that a 1,000 HP interceptor would favor toss and a 1 hp interceptor would favor zerg, which means there is a value between 1 and 1,000 that would be balanced. An hour or two in the unit tester could determine a decent estimate based on trading efficiency. You simply reduce the trading efficiency until Protoss in GM equalize to 33%. It’s really quite simple. You don’t have to pick interceptors either. You can even pick multiple things – pick 5 random protoss unit stats and reduce them until toss is 33% gm. Balancing a game is quite simple – it is not rocket science.
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The Game is more balanced now, than it has ever been!
(I know that you wanna bring back the time when zergs were wining everything, and I mean everything like 2 years straight, well tough luck, it is not going to happen any time soon)
Ironic coming from a Protoss player. You need to stop saying “Zergs” and say what you actually mean; Serral was winning everything. Zerg is doing absolutely terribly right now with Serral gone. Open ESL’s are still being dominated by Toss/Terran. The last two Premiere tournament finals were PvT with Clem being the winner of both. As soon as Serral left for the miliary, Protoss now dominates completely on ladder as well. EU GM is almost 50% Protoss again. The game isn’t balanced for anyone, not even Pros at the moment because we had 3 years of nerfing one race because Serral was too good.
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remember 2019 when they said zerg dominated but gm/ esl/ qualifier/ group phase was overflowing with toss.
so for me race is dominating when they are overrepresentative. e.g. 2017 Zerg in WCS or toss currently.
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Well Protoss is not my main, and never actually was my main.
You must feel awkward right now, with your irony crap.
Serral is Not on the list on the GSL season 1 2024!!
How is Serral relevant to how many Terrans ended it up in the finals???
You have 6 posts, you just created a new account, to say same stupid crap.
Actually I created a new account to play on ladder, not post on these forums. I just happened to come across them recently. Serral is always relevant. The balance patch is not just about GSL.
EXACTLY! Finally someone who gets it! Protoss 44% of GM = PERFECT balance.
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lol. Its kinda funny watching Protoss win everything except the top 1% of tournaments and people still arguing there isn’t something wrong with this game.
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As a Protoss Supremacist, I believe all protoss are just better players. That’s right. We’re gifted. All other players just suck. We’re so gifted that winning 49% EU GM and 42% of tournaments is proof of how weak protoss is. If game design weren’t rigged, we’d have 100% of tournament wins and 100% of GM slots! It’s true, we only use one hotkey but that’s because one hotkey is all we need. We’re just that good. That’s why we, the Protoss, are superior. All hail the Protoss Reich! May Protoss rule for a thousand seasons!
(gotta wonder how APEtoss players try to spin it in their mind. Let’s be real, they know toss is busted and they are OK with cheating their way to the top)
In StarsWars, not a single zerg qualified for the event – exactly as it should be. Those zerg abusers are inferior to us, the superior protoss. They do not deserve to qualify for tournaments, they simply are not good enough at starcraft. With out one army hotkey we will annihilate them from the premier events and send their win-rate into the abyss where it belongs. We protoss are so talented we’re just a different breed! How DARE zergs think they can be in the same tournament as us!
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Hm. GSL S2 Ro8: 3 Zerg, 3 Terran, 2 Protoss.
Looks alright to me but please, continue.
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R08 doesn’t matter. R04 and finals does. Still going to be a PvT final.
No, Protoss representation is far too low. Protoss DESERVE 100% representation. Anything less won’t reflect the SUPERIOR skill of Protoss players!
I really hope its a PvP final just to make this comment even funnier.
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