Dreamhack fall win rates

General Discussion
1

ZvP: 50%
ZvT: 53%
TvP: 48%

From:

h ttps://www.reddit.com/r/starcraft/comments/iy755s/dreamhack_masters_fall_in_numbers/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

As you can see we have huge balance problems here guys.

Discuss

2 Likes
2

Kind of amazing of ZvP being 50%. I thought it was heavily zerg favored.

3

Sampling bias my friend.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_bias

The intention is probably to hit 50% for all kinds of match ups but remember that 50% is the ‘ideal’ case. Meaning that as more matches are played (towards an infinite number of matches), the % draws closer to 50%. But it will never ever reach 50% (because an infinite number of matches cannot be played).

And not to forget Confirmation bias.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

Just because the win rates are not 50% does not necessarily mean that there is an issue with the race (or balancing). There are so many other factors at play here:

  • Player skill
  • Players who are more comfortable playing at home vs playing at a tourney location
  • Network and latency
  • Etc

I’d agree that it doesn’t rule out the possibility, but then we cannot be precise and claim that it is solely because of balance.

2 Likes
4

I think the OP’s intent may be sarcasm. The point of those statistics is probably to show that race matchups are (allegedly) more balanced than some people here say.

Anyway, I commend you for the logical and well-thought-out argument. Not something you see everyday here.

5 Likes
5

well the tvp is inflated because the terran players play perfectly.

the difference between a grandmaster terran and a pro terran is waaay bigger than gm protoss and pro-toss.

also the terrans are way better than protoss players

6

Let me first say, I do think the game is very well balanced. It is one of the more balanced periods in SC2 history.

However, at the top, Toss still struggle mightily against Zerg.

If you look just at the DH Fall Finals numbers:

14W 8L 63.6% PvZ

h ttps://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/ESL_Pro_Tour/2020/21/Masters/Fall

Small sample size but this is the story of every premier tournament. When you look at the final round of 32 or beyond… Protoss get wrecked by Zerg.

1 Like
7

This tournament had games like Probe vs Rogue and Nice vs Reynor… Expecting a 50% win rate in this case is expecting top tier champions to have a 50% win rate against pretty much ladder players.

Considering that the two weakest regions by far both sent out a Protoss player and that they got matched against the GSL champion and the EU champion in their first match, a win rate above 50% for Zerg for that tournament really isn’t too bad (except if you consider that Probe and Nice are as skilled and Reynor and Rogue…)

1 Like
8

Really wish they stop region locking. As much as I enjoy seeing Has/Time/Nice etc they really aren’t at that caliber yet.

Can’t do much about GSL since it’s offline, but for online come on.

9

Absolutely valid point. I am talking more about every GSL code S and even European tournaments. I made a topic which I can link which compiled all the premier tournaments for the year and the overall total (even including some lesser “premier” tournaments like NA DH masters) came up to about 55%-45% ZvP

10

DH SC2 Masters 2020 Fall : Season Finals Winrate are more accurate because only top level players play in :

TvZ : 43.8%
ZvP : 63.6%
PvT : 53.8%

We can see here Terran is really a bad race and is unfavor in both TvP and TvZ.

We can see Zerg is the most broken race of SC2 because zerg is hard favor in both ZvT and ZvP.

Nerf Zerg thx Blizzard.

11

DH Summer was played on a different patch :man_facepalming:t2:

12

Stats are from DH Fall, i just miss write. But i was talking about DH Fall.

You can see these stats here : https://liquipedia.net/starcraft2/ESL_Pro_Tour/2020/21/Masters/Fall

So Zerg is OP. And you speak about balance and you are platinum, maybe you should play instead of crying because you don’t understand this game. Before speaking about balance, learn to play please.

13

Velitey already address this, weaker regions get spots even though they’re not as good.

Terran got time and special who are not on level of ty, clem, inno.
Protoss got nice and probe who are not on level of stats and trap.
Zerg has scarlett, that’s their only player from a weak region so of course win-rates are going to be inflated if you include group stage.

1 Like
14

More on ZvP:

h ttps://www.reddit.com/r/starcraft/comments/iyzhd2/dh_masters_fall_is_pvz_broken/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

15

And on top of that, Scarlett is still better that TIME, Probe and Nice by quite a bit. She 2-0d TIME and she’s still a Code S regular.

16

Time is not really bad considering he is from China server, he would be way better if he played on EU or KR.

17

Time isn’t on level of ty, inno, clem.

18

I dont care if she 2-0’d Time, I still have a hard time believing she is better than him. Still impressive though.

Remember this is the same Time who has beaten Serral and is also a beast in TvT.

19

Breaking news, I have some hot data to bring you guys. ZvT winrates are at 0% (based on my games against a diamond Zerg)!!! Please nerf Terran and buff Zerg!!!