https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysOkSVnwHTk
Lmao. All those SCVs looked so stupid trying to get a surround then realizing there was no scan available. Haters said proxy lurker couldn’t be done. Playing SC2 be like:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcR3lu_HEN0
Batz admitting that the orbital command is in fact severely underpowered.
Yeah terrans can’t brainlessly spam mules oh no lurkers are imba!!! Honestly the mule is basically equivalent to free marines, so you spend energy and attain marines, that’s a free marine and people will whine that you put a stop to the free marine train by forcing scans.
https://i.imgur.com/qQTa0zM.jpeg
U think he’s being sarcastic or honest?
Game’s dead, man. This guy is a GM and he didn’t know how to scout/react to 2 base muta. Mutas are hitting his third and his roaches are panic walking across the map (no roach speed). There are a trillion and one ways to beat mutas. The easiest is to just spam speedroaches off 3 gas on 2 bases. You have like 20 roaches hitting the muta player’s nat at the same time as the mutas are popping. You get a base kill and the spire kill bare minimum. Instead of ling speed you start a lair. It’s not even a hard build to do. You just have to scout the lair timing, gas count, base count, aka there are a million tells. RIP sc2.
That’s what happens when Zerg is 22% of GM. You got to learn the ins and outs of ZvZ when it was the most common matchup then flame the guy for not going microbial shroud.
It’s the only way to get GM despite APEtoss – stellar ZvZ and ZvT win-rates. If OPtoss is 40% of your games then you’d better have a 70% ZvT winrate to compensate.
I actually think APEtoss makes ZvZ harder, because it pushes high ranked zergs lower in MMR than their ZvZ skill would allow. So they transfer the lost mmr to lower ranked zergs, in essence. In other words, to be GM you have to have stellar ZvZ but this guy was like “WTF why are there mutas?”. It’s quite the conundrum. The only conclusion is that ZvZ skill is going down in general in the GM population.
I remember the day when not only would you have to know it was important to scout, you’d need to know clever tricks on how/when to get the scout in, because your opponent knew the scouting timings and would deny them. From there you’d also need perfectly optimized build orders and crisp execution. Nowadays a GM is like “Scouting? What’s scouting?”.
This is why I don’t think Serral is the GOAT. Same for Maru. Both are peaking after the talent pool has nose-dived. 7k mmr is impressive, but not as impressive as the 2015 era when players were insanely good. Do you remember when every tournament top 8 was jam packed with koreans? Teaja, hydra, rain, mc, the list goes on and on.
Ground control is a bigger issue, honestly. The banes just come in from all angles and the lurkers can’t burst them down before they reach something critical. So he’s taking damage on 3 base, and while you can’t kill him you are forcing him to waste money on rebuilding while you are building a bank, expanding, getting out broods, etc. He has to go heavy into the lurkers and that’s why the broods are the nail in the coffin. He just can’t afford enough vipers to abduct them fast enough.
A quick question that you might know the answer to. Do you know if the IEM round of 12 is randomly seeded?
Just go by 2023 seeding.
Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. There is a lot of missing information. There are certain things in this tournament model that are unknowable. For example, the liquipedia page tells how ties are broken, but it doesn’t say what the original metric is that is tied. I am going to assume it’s match score, e.g. matches won minus matches lost. There are many sources for error here, it’s a whole new monte carlo model that I haven’t verified, the data had to be pulled from aligulac with several processing steps in between, I haven’t ran this code in about 2 years, etc, so, take it with a grain of salt, and, as always, there is no warranty:
GuMiho:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 53.74%.
Quarter-finals: 53.62%.
Semi-finals: 17.62%.
Finals: 4.84%.
Victor: 0.55%.
Solar:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 55.28%.
Quarter-finals: 46.99%.
Semi-finals: 15.63%.
Finals: 4.27%.
Victor: 0.31%.
Spirit:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 12.30%.
Quarter-finals: 3.16%.
Semi-finals: 0.38%.
Finals: 0.04%.
Victor: 0.00%.
HeRoMaRinE:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 48.88%.
Quarter-finals: 64.34%.
Semi-finals: 23.91%.
Finals: 7.22%.
Victor: 0.67%.
Scarlett:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 28.49%.
Quarter-finals: 12.43%.
Semi-finals: 2.12%.
Finals: 0.25%.
Victor: 0.00%.
trigger:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 1.31%.
Quarter-finals: 0.18%.
Semi-finals: 0.00%.
Finals: 0.00%.
Victor: 0.00%.
Clem:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 31.45%.
Quarter-finals: 86.82%.
Semi-finals: 59.20%.
Finals: 40.13%.
Victor: 14.17%.
Cure:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 62.44%.
Quarter-finals: 46.54%.
Semi-finals: 15.77%.
Finals: 5.71%.
Victor: 0.42%.
Oliveira:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 33.69%.
Quarter-finals: 16.07%.
Semi-finals: 3.84%.
Finals: 1.06%.
Victor: 0.10%.
Bunny:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 7.83%.
Quarter-finals: 2.58%.
Semi-finals: 0.24%.
Finals: 0.04%.
Victor: 0.00%.
SHIN:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 62.65%.
Quarter-finals: 50.62%.
Semi-finals: 19.42%.
Finals: 9.54%.
Victor: 0.51%.
Stats:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 1.95%.
Quarter-finals: 0.59%.
Semi-finals: 0.13%.
Finals: 0.02%.
Victor: 0.00%.
Serral:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 7.31%.
Quarter-finals: 99.15%.
Semi-finals: 90.40%.
Finals: 77.10%.
Victor: 67.23%.
ByuN:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 81.36%.
Quarter-finals: 52.05%.
Semi-finals: 17.12%.
Finals: 6.13%.
Victor: 1.37%.
Astrea:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 25.41%.
Quarter-finals: 2.84%.
Semi-finals: 0.25%.
Finals: 0.00%.
Victor: 0.00%.
Kelazhur:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 30.78%.
Quarter-finals: 6.59%.
Semi-finals: 0.85%.
Finals: 0.00%.
Victor: 0.00%.
Skillous:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 23.79%.
Quarter-finals: 4.46%.
Semi-finals: 0.64%.
Finals: 0.07%.
Victor: 0.00%.
Firefly:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 31.34%.
Quarter-finals: 6.01%.
Semi-finals: 0.84%.
Finals: 0.37%.
Victor: 0.00%.
Dark:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 50.17%.
Quarter-finals: 83.73%.
Semi-finals: 52.85%.
Finals: 16.25%.
Victor: 6.12%.
Maru:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 64.35%.
Quarter-finals: 72.60%.
Semi-finals: 37.60%.
Finals: 13.88%.
Victor: 4.57%.
Reynor:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 62.03%.
Quarter-finals: 72.04%.
Semi-finals: 34.40%.
Finals: 10.22%.
Victor: 2.87%.
herO:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 23.30%.
Quarter-finals: 16.53%.
Semi-finals: 6.80%.
Finals: 2.86%.
Victor: 1.13%.
ShoWTimE:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 0.16%.
Quarter-finals: 0.04%.
Semi-finals: 0.00%.
Finals: 0.00%.
Victor: 0.00%.
Cyan:
Round Robin: 100.00%.
Playoffs: 0.00%.
Quarter-finals: 0.00%.
Semi-finals: 0.00%.
Finals: 0.00%.
Victor: 0.00%.
Terran:
Round Robin: 41.67%.
Playoffs: 53.35%.
Quarter-finals: 50.55%.
Semi-finals: 44.13%.
Finals: 39.53%.
Victor: 21.84%.
Protoss:
Round Robin: 33.33%.
Playoffs: 13.41%.
Quarter-finals: 3.83%.
Semi-finals: 2.16%.
Finals: 1.66%.
Victor: 1.13%.
Zerg:
Round Robin: 25.00%.
Playoffs: 33.24%.
Quarter-finals: 45.62%.
Semi-finals: 53.71%.
Finals: 58.81%.
Victor: 77.03%.LMFAO 
Serral’s gonna win this thing so flipping hard. I am going to celebrate knowing the IEM winner, before it even starts, by drinking a glass of strawberry wine. Cheers to more zerg nerfs! https://i.imgur.com/hLK75bi.png
EDIT: one more big caveat that I just thought of is that there isn’t a lot of data about the pro scene since the last patch. So, maybe that’s a source for error, but, if I wanted to, I could include ladder performance using stouffer’s method, and that would help a lot. I think it would be a waste of time based on the numbers that we are seeing here. If people are routing against serral, they better hope he comes down with a cold or flu or something that just drops his performance level off a cliff. That’s the way it seems to me.
Cyan with 0% is just rude. There’s no such thing as a 0% chance. Firefly being better than the European equivalents was obvious though.
It means the monte carlo method didn’t find any instances where it happens. It’s definitely >0% but it’s also very close to 0% because it’s within rounding distance of 1/100,000,000. The simulation does 100 million tournaments and counts how many results in each outcome so it’s >0% and <0.000001% (based on the data and processing methods and assumptions, in so far as those can be trusted).
So when it’s a fight between Cyan, Dark and Reynor for third place and he gets into the playoffs we can say Protoss is so OP we live in a world that not even maths can accept?
Just noticed Serral has a 7.31% chance at playoffs. Washed confirmed.
There are 2 ways to be make it to the ro8. You can take first in your round robin group, or you can take 2nd or 3rd but then you have to make it through the playoffs. Serral having a 7% chance of making it to the playoffs means a 93% chance he takes first in the round robin & goes straight to the ro8. This makes sense since he is the strongest player in Elo ranking and he’s in a group with several of the weaker players, which means he practically has a free ticket to the ro8. Statistically, weaker players will end up in the playoffs, so in the off-chance that Serral makes it to the playoffs he will have a very high probability of advancing. That’s why the model gives him a 99.15% chance to make it to the ro8.
Ps mods benned me for making an anatomical joke. This place is run with stricter rules than a kindergarten class. Twitch by comparison pays you to make those jokes. This place doesn’t pay you and actively harasses you for having any personality at all. Who on earth do they have running this place because they don’t understand business. This is why IDGAF if they perm ban me again. I brought millions of clicks for free over the years, and they don’t even pay me, in fact they harass me instead. You gotta know who your friends are and bnet mods clearly are not friends of content creators.
Honestly it’s a matter of self respect. Posting on bnet is like moving back in with an abusive ex, lmao. The parallels there are actually rather striking. You just know this crazy chick is gonna go through your texts and find things to be mad about but you still move back in because you don’t have enough self respect to known you deserve better.
Bnets gonna end up being the crazy cat lady of the intenet.
This is virtually analogous to how I feel about SC2:
https://youtube.com/shorts/nMEPGM6Kkqw
“I know what chess is all about. It’s about memorization and pre-arrangement; creativity is lower down on the list. It’s ridiculous.” - Bobby Fisher.
“I know what SC2 is all about. It’s about grinding your APM low. Strategy is lower down on the list. It’s ridiculous.”
It’s the same argument, mutatis mutandis. SC2 and chess can actually be abstracted down to a lower level and into the same genre: both are about interference patterns. You have a spatial domain that you want to control, and items produce patterns that interfere with your opponents ability to occupy space and that pattern changes depending on the spatial arrangement of the items. It’s literally that simple at its most fundamental level.
This applies to almost every game, by the way. You can reduce almost every game in existence to a decision tree, and every decision tree can be analyzed as a spatial domain that can be controlled with interference patterns. The only two categories of games that can’t be analyzed like this are the ones that are totally random, like poker, or games that have no player-to-player interaction, like a 100 yard sprint.
Did they nuke a thread or something? Can’t remember a single instance that deserved a ban, lmao. You must be getting reported and instead of actually moderating the forums they just dish out bans to save time.
They edited the offense out of apost. Basically if you have any masculinity in your post, the probability you get gestapoed goes through the roof. Bragging, confidence, pride, determination - Get ready for the gulags, bucko. I’ve noticed the trend on reddit to. Internet moderation systems are extremely feminine and not in a good way, but a catty and vindictive and melodramatic kind of way.
I had a guy harassing me on my stream at one point and just ignored him, but eventually vlocked him. He said all sorts of truly horrendous stuff. I didn’t even bother to report him. Meanwhile bnet users are going through my posts with a fine tooth comb, looking for anything they can report, and it’s exactly like a toxic ex girlfriend going through your texts. It’s analogous. Theres like 10 or so crazy cat laddies browsing this cite and reporting anything that looks even remotely masculine.
By the way, I highly recommend stats vs clem. It’s obvious that Stats is a champion tier protoss but that he is definitely out of practice. Clem vs cure is a good example on how the match history of pro play is biased towards EU, overestimating their ranks compared to koreans. There aren’t as many korean vs foreign games as are ideal, nor many k v k, but there are tons of f v f. In other words it’s likely the above analysis over estimates clems probability of winning the tournament.