In an equal match, if 1-4, 2-4, 3-4, 4-3, 4-2, and 4-1 are all common, then what isn’t? Just 4-0 and 0-4, which almost happened anyway.
An equal match scenario has the highest variance, meaning any outcome is likely and that makes it hard to predict.
Think of it this way. If Rogue is facing vs a Gold league player, Rogue will consistently win every game - there will be no variability in the outcome. When Rogue is playing an equal, Rogue only has a 50% chance at winning a game so it’s a complete coinflip what is going to happen each game and the entire series becomes just a series of conflips.
It’s easy to prove this since it’s a binomial variable: P * (1.0 - P). Plug in 0.5:
0.5 * (1.0 - 0.5) = 0.25
Plug in even a slightly altered combination:
0.49 * (1.0 - 0.49) = 0.2499
0.2499 < 0.25
So as you can see, the variance peaks at P=0.5 which is a 50% win-rate in this case, aka an equal skill match. In that scenario, the only unlikely outcome is a 4-0 or an 0-4, which requires 4 consecutive coinflips being the same, which is 0.5^4=0.0625 aka 6.25% chance.
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Am i the only one thinking its completly rubbish to use school math to make an assumption between 2 Players in the finals of one of the biggest tournies in sc2? There is so much going on between those 2 that we dont even know which completly changes their chances. Even the match that maru won was rather a match that rogue lost. We have seen an entitely one sided series because apparently rogue did his homework Big time and Made maru look like a Clown. I mean for real if You want to calculate the real Chances You need so much freakin data between those 2. How did they prepare? How much did rogue know about marus early game and the weakpoints(apparently a looooot). Who was rogues Training Partner and what did he know ? And this goes for marus perspective too. Calculating chances when no one prepares vs when both prepare for a longer time are compleeeeetly different. But yeah we shouldnt expect batzy to know this stuff. Since he went to University at age 10 and did his phd at 13 probably 
lets face it. He has never seen the indoors of a University which is why he is so obsessed with that Matter.
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Not at all: you’re right on the money there and the vast majority isn’t that stupid but on this forum, unfortunately, there are some exceptions.
If this rambling tells us anything, it tells us rather much about the author of the post (or in this case of his numerous posts). It tells us that he’s trolling by acting like a complete know-it-all-wannabe-starcraftprofessor (don’t worry he’s good at history too) and combined with his incessant balance whining on this forum, which can be witnessed in countless posts, he must have a ‘very interesting’ life where much is going on. Now bad trolls always get identified and since most of the community already did that, there isn’t much success for him there as well. I think it’s best not to feed it too much and report his sort of posts as spam/ trolling.
However, every now and then it gets a bit funny (and very silly at the same time) when you see his predictions crash and burn consecutively. It’s like watching someone running head first into a concrete wall over and over again, after which he decides he needs some protection… and wears gloves at the next attempt. I think his character can be compared to some of the participants in Monty Python’s ‘upper class twit of the year’-sketch, but that is a personal opinion.
Kind regards
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Any player who watches the game will know that GSL finals are usually unexpected and underwhelming.I think Maru is a better player,but that day probably didn’t expect agressive roach play, maybe he was expecting ling bane muta or ling bane hydra into lurker, then he got roached several times in a row and T is a race that must follow proper builds and reactions. The series were not close,it was a facerroll with the classic strat newer players get in ZvT, roaches are good for timings and allows for an easier macro.People talked about Trap choking, but this one is probably bigger, roach in zvt is usually the least strong composition and Maru lost 3 games to it and it was the damn finals.
He also said that this GSL would be protoss dominated, but not sure if he used a mathematical calculus for that statement or just his bowel movements.
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I would argue all maps were strategic wins. Only game 5 was relatively standard and was more an execution win, but I think the strategy is still there. In a BO7, going macro is also a strategic choice, especially when you went for timing attacks for 4 straight maps. Strategy plays a bigger role than a lot of people think IMHO.
100% accuracy → “crash and burn consecutively.”
Sorry kid, lying only gets you blocked. This is strike 2. One more blatant lie and you’re permanently blocked.
100% accuracy → “not sure if he used a mathematical calculus for that statement or just his bowel movements.”
Sorry kid, lying only gets you blocked. You’re well past strike 3. As far as I am concerned, from this moment forward you never even existed:
https://i.imgur.com/BtWpkAm.png
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I Think we hit a nerve. I can also come up with some calculations and say well well well the match gonna be very very close. No sh!t its the Finals of one of the most important tournament. And then call a 4-1 a common result. Such genius much wow.
It is the brick. Which has landed on poor birds head. That have stopped his education… LUL
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Let’s see how long that lasts.
Freedom of speech is a good thing.
In fact, the only thing to block would be troll accounts. It would be 100 times more logical to ban alt troll accounts like your BigTurkey than to block people who you disagree with.
LUL bird is welcomed to speak. But not deserving to be heard…
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Imagine thinking that “freedom of speech” equates to “everyone must listen”. Talk about cerebral atrophy.
You should put more words in my mouth, it isn’t full yet.
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More evidence of cerebral atrophy. I thought you were a doctor. I guess in med school they teach you not to self-diagnose.
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