wowwwwww. All those discussions with Bourne and you still haven’t come to the agreement about race difficulty. You never asked if this dude was terran. A terran with 2500 MMR with the 40% boost means he is in masters league.
1 Like
I actually thought about that, looked him up and indeed saw a 2275 mmr terran. I was like omg now its all clear. Why are you terrans like that? Once you hit “t” you all think you are maru and belong in gm 
I mean obviously if bourne sees this discussion he would instantly attack me and defend wiceorc with “2200 mmr terran is actually gm with every other race because terran is so hard reeeeeee”
1 Like
Because of what we have to witness. I just watched a skytoss player with 1/1/1 upgrades focus fire 2/4 ultras with 100 marines sitting behind them. This was already a 2v"3" one of their teammates died. A 20 minute game with the dude having 3x the army size and it was almost a throw before I gave him directions. Thankfully he actually listened. Most of the times the scrubs are also extra yappy which makes it that much better.
MMR decay links player activity to the variance of the mmr system as a whole. For example, serral didn’t play in his 7500 mmr account, was booted to 4500, and had to work his way back up, which effectively subtracted 3000 mmr from the entire pool of mmr for all players. Repeat this many times over & that’s how you get the GM threshold at 4200 mmr (at the season start).
6k mmr has been remapped to 5.2k. Most ex 6k mmr players are in the range of 5.1 to 5.3k mmr. So you could map out the exact change using z scores if you wanted to but the “6k mmr index” is probably a good estimate. Most players lost 800 mmr since the “glory days” of sc2. I was comfortably 5500-5700 with meme builds back in the day and now I am 4800 with not much else changing. It’s just the variance of the system going down due to mmr decay.
Another way to estimate it is the minimum gm threshold. At peak, it wouldn’t let you into GM until 5500. Now you find it’s common for players to be 4700-4800 mmr in GM. That’s 800 mmr almost exactly.
2 Likes
yeah -800 mmr looks quite accurate. I remember even Forgg couldn’t keep himself above 5700+ by the time he quit streaming in Febuary 2024. He used to be 6300~6400 all the time like 4years ago…
Yeah people have to realize it’s basically scoring you on a bell curve so the absolute number doesn’t matter, it’s the number relative to everyone else’s number that matters. So it’s the difference between two numbers that matters. The last time I calculated it, the mean for all players was ~2859 and the standard deviation was 881. So a 5700 mmr player would be a (5700-2859)/881=3.2 sigma which is the top 99.9% which is the top half of grandmaster since gm is supposed to be >=99.8%. So the number checks out. But I haven’t updated that figure since may of 2023, so it’s probably out of date.
1 Like
https://sc2pulse.nephest.com/sc2/?season=42&queue=LOTV_1V1&team-type=ARRANGED&us=true&gra=true&page=2&type=ladder&ratingAnchor=5423&idAnchor=8339055&count=-1#ladder-top
This is the season when SC2 peaked in terms of activity. We can compare where Gms were back then to where they are now. PracticeX is one of the most common NA ladder opponents in GM and he is currently rank 13. In 2019 s4 he was rank 85. So we can infer that a lot of top GMs are leaving the game. We aren’t having mmr inflation, we are having mmr deflation.
But this is only true for NA. On EU Gm player base remains virtually unchanged in the last 6-7 years. You have same contenders these days as you had 7 years ago.
Maybe with the exception that a lot of NA Gms practice on EU.
So actually what ive heard is that in these days getting certain mmr is a lot harder on NA than on EU. One of my friends is 5200~5400 on NA and 5600+on EU even with ~180ms. Not so sure, because i can’t really test this because i have 350+ ms on eu but at least everyone i asked says they have higher mmr on EU than they have on NA.
1 Like
I got placed into master one season after not playing for a bit. I left league because I knew it was obviously a bug with my ~3.5k MMR. I belong in d2. Just how big do you think m3 is?
Yes I think you are right. ThrivingGG has four accounts (two na, two eu). That’s actually really useful. Taking the average (5218 eu, 5071 na) it seems to be ~150 mmr harder on NA:
https://i.imgur.com/PgaPHKe.png
We could add more GMs to the average but I don’t know of any others that play cross region. Instead we can contrast the GM demotion thresholds too:
Lowest EU GM: https://i.imgur.com/D1ZTFUu.png
Lowest NA GM: https://i.imgur.com/ok6QsqI.png
265 mmr difference.
So NA is somewhere in the range of 150-265 mmr harder. Revising my previous theory, my best guess, for why this is happening, is that EU/KR players smurf on NA but they do it irregularly. So their accounts are mmr-reset between periods of inactivity. They come back, rocket up to GM with an 80% win-rate, only to go inactive again. But, they transfer all the mmr lost from the mmr-reset to everyone else in the process. If you get a lot of people doing this, it would reduce the average mmr of GM players. I think that’s probably what’s going on.
It’s a byproduct of smurfing / multiple accounts. This started to happen after free to play become a thing. It was around that time that I noticed the GM demotion threshold started to drop on NA. It used to be 5500 and for awhile it was 5300. Now it’s 4800. I think that theory passes the “sniff test”. It’s plausible.
The thing that I am most curious about is if this will ultimately shrink the GM threshold down to 4k or lower. New MMR is injected into the system by adding new players BELOW the average MMR of 2850. If smurfing is very common & new players are uncommon, I’d bet that the MMR threshold can go even lower and ultimately even reach 2850 if the factors were extreme enough.
2 Likes
I hopped onto thriving’s stream. He did a gassless third hatch in main into 1/1 ling flood and beat a 5300 zerg player. I invented that build back in 2016 and used a variant of it on snute. Thriving’s version is really bad because he gets overlord speed and 1/1 and a spire. A well executed +1 speedroach flood auto wins vs him, a defensive roach into hydra auto wins, a 3 base spire build auto wins, a 3 base ling bane allin auto wins, the same build but third on location auto wins, etc.
This 5300 zerg has a super delayed lair. No reason for the delay because he has a low queen count so what exactly was he doing. Thriving has one advantage and it’s the ling mobility. If this guy builds a hydra den while turtling, makes 12 hydras, then pushes, it’s a free win. Instead he moves out on the map, commits to the push despite multiple red flags that he should go back, loses 2 bases, lets his roaches derp around at thriving’s third even though it’s time-critical to ram those roaches in as fast as possible.
Yeah, EU’s mmr is definitely inflated compared to NA. This 5300 zerg is drastically worse than a comparable 5200 on NA like Sammyuel or EON. His zvz might be unusually bad but I’d rank it around 4600 on NA. There is no way thriving’s build beats a 5300 na zerg. Not a chance.
This Bug has been around for more than 5 years, you would think they would fix that by now.
Nah, remember they aren’t in active developement, and it isn’t a game breaking bug, so it kinda just gets left.
They have attempted to fix this bug a few times in the past before it popped back up again for reasons unkmown too.
Well the reason is most likely any patch, any change in code can affect other code and make the bug again. However, if it was fix in the past, then they probably know exactly what and how to fix it, they just don’t care!
1 Like