Cleopatra:
It’s merely speculation on my behalf, but Overwatch “behavior model” seems to be based on pre-existing psychological compatibility of team - as in “everyone work together, play nice”. But real Overwatch team usually is far from that, in more than one aspect. Making calculated odds of winning different from actual odds.
Honestly I prefer a source that has been “on some level” endorsed by a Blizzard rep/mod.
Win streaks and loss streaks are common, but are not related to your actual skill rating or MMR. Naturally of course the higher you climb the more difficult the matches will get (that is the point of a ranked ladder of any competitive game). It’s also not uncommon to ride on your emotions (get energized when you win, get tilted when you lose). Anyone who says there are “forced wins or losses” in Overwatch are fooling themselves.
Here is a handy detailed guide to matchmaking and skill rating in Competitive Overwatch.
The rating and matchmaking system is confusing, and a good overview does not appear to be available. The official overview1 is incomplete and does not answer a number of common player questions and concerns. This information below is gathered from sporadic developer posts and videos, salted with my own experience and experiments, various forum threads, and watching streams. Note that since Blizzard does not give exact algorithms, I do have to fill in some gaps, or leave some items unknown. Final…
Until Blizzard comes forward and tells us whats going on, literally all of it is speculation.
The reality is, people’s ego’s are too fragile and they need to find a scapegoat as to why they’re unable to be successful in a video game where they’re playing against other human beings who are more skilled, more intelligent and sometimes, just luckier.
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