A balanced match will be about 50% chance of winning. If the match maker works as intended, most (if not all) your games will be like this. Thus meaning a 50% winrate is highly likely. Not forced, just a mathematical probability.
He’s not said that, he’s said that as you move about MMR and because queues are are queues, that 50% change of win, might mathematically be 55% or 45%. This is where the modifiers come in. If the SR is slightly lower on one team, but they win, they will get the relevant modifier.
It is more that people have interpreted things they way they want, rather than the way they were. If someone believes the theory, they will find anything they can and call it “evidence”.
That isn’t true. It is more coincidence. If you win a lot and your MMR goes from 0.85 to 1.25 (for example). You will be matched with 9 others at 1.25. Some of them are possibly going to be on a loss streak and dropped a bit, others will be on a win streak. And just as likely you’ll have some who are about 50/50.
Streaks/recent results aren’t relevant to match making. It only considers 4 things
- MMR (the big concern)
- Queue time
- Ping
- Group size
As a core, matchmaker is a mathematical formula that takes into account multiple factors, including but not limited to:
- Skill: The matchmaking system will try to group players with and against players of similar skill. The game represents “skill” as a hidden matchmaking rating, or “MMR.” In role queues, the matchmaker will prioritize placing pairs of similar MMR players on each role on either team. All game modes, including, only look at matchmaking rating when creating a match; outward-facing skill tier and division have no effect on matchmaking.
- Queue time: The matchmaking system will try to find a fair match in as little time as possible.
- Ping: Players connected to servers that are geographically closer to one another are prioritized in order to minimize lag.
- Group size: The matchmaking system will attempt to find groups of equal sizes to match against each other. For example, if four players are looking for a game together, the matchmaker will try to match them against another group of four.