This, to me, is a likely outcome. That’s going to be unfortunate for 5v5, too, if it happens considering one of the purported benefits will be more-even queue times.
I actually hadn’t strongly considered the impact of induced demand, but the reality is that OW2 is going to radically change the flow of the game & how characters feel & play, particularly for Tanks. This isn’t speculative–the developers have been very open and frank that this is their goal. That goal, however, hasn’t been received with overwhelming support from what I’ve been able to determine. Many, many tank players have expressed dissatisfaction at the idea, and in all probability, we’re going to see a migration away from Tanks, either to Support, or to DPS, or to just quitting the game altogether. Whatever changes Blizzard may be making to tanks to try to mitigate this migration, I don’t think it’s going to stop it. That intrinsically will limit the benefits of 5v5 for queues…
but on top of that, it does very little to address the problem of the Support queue. While not as bad as the Tank queue in some regions, in other regions, it’s as bad or worse. Fixing the Tank queue won’t solve that–if anything, the proposed changes seem as though they will only make it worse as Blizzard has not indicated any sweeping changes for Supports, and Support players have expressed concern with how the changes to Tanks will affect them and their role in the game. I think it’s very likely that Supports will see a reduction in players as well, and the end result will be the bottleneck simply shifting from Tanks to Supports, with only-marginal benefit to DPS queues.
If Blizzard actually wants to resolve queue times, they can start by not pushing 5v5. Keep 6v6, or even explore 7v7–yes, it would be a little chaotic and different, but it wouldn’t require the style of sweeping changes that 5v5 does. They need to focus on making Supports & Tanks feel powerful & impactful again–that doesn’t mean making them broken, but it means exploring different avenues of toning down their power without making them feel piddly or botty (healbot for healers, shieldbot for tanks). I’m pretty sure the suggestion of limiting barriers to 1 per team has been thrown out before–that would be better than the Tank situation right now, or a potential 5v5 shift. Ideal? Maybe not, but better. If Blizzard wants to reduce the DPS queue time, they need to be less willing to make sacrifices to the Tank/Support experience to cater to the DPS experience and recognize that there are three roles in this game that people should be able to enjoy. Making changes at the expense of one or both of the other roles isn’t going to help DPS in the long run, and maybe not even in the short run.