Fallaciously extrapolating my knowledge of evidence or stats lol.
For today’s lesson, we’re just going cover coin flips.
With what I posted, yes it is about 20% error. Still enough of a tell tale. I could post more and more samples, but if people can’t get through the statistical basics there seems little point.
The coin flip analogy proves that I lose much, much worse than random. Actual random at 600sr would be something like 1-2 losses per 10, because there would be significant positive bias and central tendancy towards the population mean.
In other words, you should get the mythical ‘unlosable’ matches far more often in the bottom 0.37% if the bias is fairly scaled and matches are not rigged. The fact the we’re seeing 10% win ratios and long loss streaks at 600sr night over night suggests the coin is just biased (and in the wrong direction) - i.e. rigged.