Forced losses (or wins) would imply a discrepancy between team mmr (mixture of individual) mmr and match sr. The larger and more frequent the streaks, the more ill-behaved this discrepancy. Getting a 10% win ratio at 600sr (worse than bottom 0.5%) means I would belong in the bottom 0.0X% or something atrocious. I’m pretty sure my coaching staff would argue I’m not THAT bad. Silver maybe? That part is irrelevant.
We’re striving for fair matching at fair ranking. And we’re not getting it.
It ‘felt’ to me and my viewers that it was nothing but smurf/troll matches. In ranking terms, I was playing matches with hidden mmr way higher than 600. And, for whatever reasons, couldn’t keep up in those mmr mixtures, either because the opponents were too strong (out ranked) or my teammates too weak (couldn’t carry), or just plain losing normally.
My rank of 600sr wasn’t too high.
My mmr of X they ‘rigged’ me into, was.
I posted 2 screenshots which give a win ratio of 10% over 20+ games. With long negative streaks (10+ losses, 1 win, 6+ losses). I have much more I could post, but the principle is the same. This is taking place at 600sr.
It is enough sampling to calculate (with some error) if the system is ‘unfair’ in the sense of a negatively biased coin flips. I leave the actual calc to anyone willing to call me out.
Look up biased coins and coin flips. You don’t have to do much work to see if the coin is rigged. Change detection: If you suddenly chain lose at 600sr, then with very high probability you were not given a fair coin (in fact, one with very strong bias against).
Sure, you could be singled out, but I think it’s much more likely that you haven’t reached your correct SR yet. What do you gain from believing yourself to be a victim? The only thing that does is ensure that you continue to fall. Put your ego in check, friend. You can thank me later.
I still think the sample size is large enough that losing streaks like this will simply happen to a significant number of people through random chance & the increased likelihood of losing again after a loss due to mood change (i dont care how big or how small an effect there is, its there, noone is a robot)
Thats, like, a 20% or higher margin of error. And, even if it wasnt, all it proves is that you lose a lot. Doesnt suggest a single thing about those losses being “forced.” Its not rocket science
Not to mention, we have no idea how many games were between those screenshots. So, not only is it a pathetically small sample size, its also not a truly random sample size.
Your understanding of “evidence” would give a Stats 101 teacher a literal stroke
False. These loss streaks are happening way too efficiently for said rank. It is akin to someone being completely boosted and going into freefall. Am I completely boosted at 0.37% i.e. belong in the bottom 0.01% or the like? Possible, but extremely unlikely.
When you’re already at the bottom 0.37%, its far more likely for you to drift upwards, even through random bozzo chance. Let alone actual effort. All things being equal, it is way more likely my correct sr is above 600sr not way below.
The system punishes people by assigning them an mmr way outside their sr.
Fallaciously extrapolating my knowledge of evidence or stats lol.
For today’s lesson, we’re just going cover coin flips.
With what I posted, yes it is about 20% error. Still enough of a tell tale. I could post more and more samples, but if people can’t get through the statistical basics there seems little point.
The coin flip analogy proves that I lose much, much worse than random. Actual random at 600sr would be something like 1-2 losses per 10, because there would be significant positive bias and central tendancy towards the population mean.
In other words, you should get the mythical ‘unlosable’ matches far more often in the bottom 0.37% if the bias is fairly scaled and matches are not rigged. The fact the we’re seeing 10% win ratios and long loss streaks at 600sr night over night suggests the coin is just biased (and in the wrong direction) - i.e. rigged.
We have every idea. The replay log has all the matches and they come with timestamps. The 2 wins triggered more immediate loss streaks. But keep refuting, gatekeeping for more evidence, and goalshifting the burden of proof.
No amount of sampling or stats will ever be good enough for forum goers. But I’ll post more loss streaks as they happen across our discord and we can keep refining the likelihood things are cooked.
This just doesn’t make sense.
You are a <600 SR player who refuses to learn from your mistakes. (Despite apparently having a “Coaching Team”???) That is the only logical solution.
Can we see a video of one of these games? I’d like to see if you truly are as good as you say. All we know is that you lost. We don’t know who’s fault it is. If we could see WHY you lost, then we could more accurately judge your claims.
Perhaps they should eliminate comp for anyone who isn’t a pro. See how that works? You want to tell others who spent money they can’t play a mode. Well what if no one but the OWL players could play comp???
There should not be a need to play a mode, they dont like.
If they dont like to play serious they should not have to.
But to get golden guns you need to play comp.
You don’t need to be pro to play competitive… If you play sports and matches against others, you train etc(and have fun)… But in those matches you play to win. Even if you don’t get money for taking first spot. Or get paid for competing (sponsors).
Since i am a software engineer my self, it is not to hard to create an algorithm that will detect if people are throwing or even soft throwing.
So a system that detects if you playing far below your usual skill, or the skill other players have in your rank.
Like if your 5 party members having around average stats for those ranks and you have the stats far below someone playing that rank on that hero, you are throwing.
Oke it will also probably trigger when someone is ill, or drunk etc… but should you be playing comp in those state?
And yes it will of course also trigger when you play a hero that is being hard countered and you dont get the usual value from it.
So 2 simple changes will made comp better(more like a real competitive mode):
remove rewards (like golden gun) from comp mode.
create a system that detect throwers and soft throwers.
Every time I tell people loss streak and they just say I am titled but actually I am not. The system obviously gives players who perform below average to drag you down to the level that it determines u should belong to. That’s why I get dragged down to 3900 where it determines I should be and I can do nearly nothing and still win games.
the matchmaking system totally inadvertently forces losses. it gives you stronger opponents however not the team to match, which results in (most cases) a landslide loss with more to follow. it also doesn’t help if your account is from early seasons of competitive given how old mmr plays into this.
