"Ana has a healthy winrate" or "IDK what statistics is"

General Discussion
1

Big disclaimer.
I have seen people discussing numbers on this forum, and I am so scared to start a conversation where I have to explain how numbers work, because I had masses of people, not 1, not 2, masses of people saying that 14% pickrate means 5x14% which is 70%, which is absolutely not because first of all, there are only 2 supports in each team, not 5, and second of all 5x14% do not stack, each 14% is individual. Yes, more players means more chance, but it’s not bluntly adding the each chance to each other. If you have 14% pickrate on ana and I have too, we don’t have 28% together, and if anyone doesn’t know this or think the way is to add the chances to each other, please leave this thread now because I have no energy to argue people who didn’t finish 6th grade of school. Disclaimer over.

Now ana sits around 50% winrate and if you just look at numbers without context, she looks like a balanced choice and you can even think she is not even that great. However, we live in the world of anas now and for every 1 ana in one team, there is another ana or kiriko in the opposite team, and this is why you have a balanced 50% on this character.

Now if you generate let’s say 100 matches where only one team is allowed to pick ana, the winrate will drastically change. I am sure many of you had a match where you faced ana without having ana or kiriko yourself, and you were forced to switch the tank and the support because of the massive disadvantage and how easily you get stomped because of nade and having no counter to it. I am sure the winrate will be around 80% if you don’t pick ana and kiriko against one singular ana. She herself defines meta, she is meta, I can’t believe how people cannot see the power she possesses and how she literally alone ruins the game.

P.S I can’t believe I have to do this. Either these are subtle trolls and I am being baited, or I seriously need to re-explain the disclaimer.

There are 4 supports in the lobby, but there is a limit, only 2 can be Ana. So the cases are individualized and cannot be “stacked” more than twice cuz there is a limit.

Case 1
Support 1 and Support 2 pick Ana, while Support 3 and Support 4 don’t (cuz they can’t, it’s already picked).

Case 2
Support 1 and Support 3 pick Ana, while Support 2 and Support 4 don’t (cuz they can’t, it’s already picked).

Case 3
Support 1 and Support 4 pick Ana, while Support 2 and Support 3 don’t (cuz they can’t, it’s already picked).

So the probability of each case is

Case 1. (0.14)² * (1 - 0.14)² = 0.0196 * 0.7569 = 0.0148 or 1.48%
Case 2. (0.14)² * (1 - 0.14)² = 0.0196 * 0.7569 = 0.0148 or 1.48%
Case 3. (0.14)² * (1 - 0.14)² = 0.0196 * 0.7569 = 0.0148 or 1.48%

The probabilities of the each case is the same number and we add them togheter, which is: 0.0148 + 0.0148 + 0.0148 = 0.0444 or 4.44%

Warning, this showcases the method of calculation, not the overall calculation.

You can add as many cases as you want to check the probability, but you need to remember the game limit, like if you calculate for tank, you are not going to have the same result cuz it’s only 2 people with the role, not 4. You get the idea.

So the chance of each individual support picking Ana is 4.44%. BUT, I already said in the previous thread that Overbuff shows wrong stats, therefore, 4.44% while be mathematically correct calculation, it does not show the real probability because Ana’s pickrate is not 14% because Overbuff is just wrong.

The method used to calculate the probability of each individual support picking Ana is based on combinatorics and the concept of complementary probability, so if you want to argue with basic math, please, go on.

Another edit here, anyone who throws insult on me for proving them wrong is going to ignore list. Learn to lose with respect please. You can find 0 cases of me insulting anyone directly, so mind your manners and tone please. I understand that math is not an easy topic to engage, but if you can’t follow 13 year’s old etiquette, do not engage in a conversation like this.

Also, the amount of people thinking they understand numbers, but actually they are so clueless… it’s disturbing…

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Are you the guy who didn’t understand how pick rates work from overbuff a few days ago?

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Pick rate is calculated disregarding roles. If you add together all of the pick rates from every support you should get 40%, not 100%.

Also if you play Ana 50% of the time and I play Ana 50% of the time, together we would play Ana every single time.

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Are you the guy who was telling me that ana had 140% pickrate because 10 players each lobby and 14% pickrate is 14x10?

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Nope.

But a 14% pick rate means you’d see ana picked 70 times across 100 matches.

Edit: that’s actually meant to be 50 rounds. But there’s “100 teams” across those 50 rounds. Was updating but got quoted too quickly. Eating dinner. Don’t sue me.

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yes but you should also calculate the limit. each lobby cannot have more than 2 anas

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Might be cause you dont know who they work to start with, try understanding them first before showing us your “knowledge”

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I was never "shorlwing“ my knowledge, just genuinely being shocked how much people think they know while they know absolutely nothing.

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They at least know more about mathematic than you. You should finish 10th grade before insulting other people.

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Oh hi Crow, how are you my brother? Where did insult anyone btw?

And why suddenly so many people come to this thread, discuss 0 things about what is posted here and just directly attack me?

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“OOOHHH what an humilliating defeat, i know when i am beat so of course take a seat”

Talking from experience i see

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Are you okay my brother? Who hurt you?

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That is already a cause why you get flagged. So if you get the next ban. You now know why.

And you should look at the math stuff from 10th grade. In my country it will be taught there.

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Because someone can’t admit they are wrong and uses alts to false flag, and this is not an opinion, this is customer support’s words.

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Non-mirrored win rates are more interesting imo. So matches with an Ana on one team and the other team without. This is one of the data points Blizzard uses themselves.

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Is it a public data? Any ways to check? And non-mirror means how many heroes do not repeat? Or it’s a completely different comp? What’s the exact definition?

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Nopes not public. You have to rely on 3rd party sites which aren’t always accurate.

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It’s just sad then, but many times they announced how they rely on data to make decisions, and it’s disturbing because relying on data without checking the context is fallacy.

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Like I said I did not report you

And for your examples your Bernoulli is wrong because the probabilities are not independent

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I am sure you didn’t :wink:

The probabilities are not independent in the examples or in the game?