No the game is designed to make fair matches…I mean in theory that would mean derankers and seal clubbers…fresh new accounts…not match new players with veteran players…etc.
That however does not mean sitting pretty, because “this game is a guaranteed win, because I lost the last one.”
Tldr; games that aren’t boring or soul crushing. Ironically, most games are boring and soul crushing.
that is gambler’s fallacy
big difference between a close game and a blow and why any of them happen.
I don’t think the match maker can ‘see’ that stuff.
The earning report yesterday said Overwatch still has 10 million monthly average users.
IMO the match maker can’t do much more than find 12 players who have kind of close MMR/SR and away you go. Good enough.
No it’s literally chapter 1 of intro to statistics. You should read it. It’s the exact OPPOSITE of the gambler’s fallacy.
Why y’all referencing Gambler’s Fallacy, which has nothing really to do with statistics but rather psychology?
All it means is that you think after a run of bad luck, your luck is due to change. You cant possibly lose again, right? Surely the odds are in your favor now? It cant land on red again, could it?
The roulette wheel has no memory, as they say. My point is the Blizz matchmaker SHOULD have a memory. That would prevent the rather demoralizing loss streaks.
No it should not. If you’re having a bad day with your gameplay and stats so much below the average for your rank that you’re losing several games in a row, it shouldn’t hand you free wins by putting you against people well below your rank. It’s a ranked game, so it should put you with and against players of the same rank as you. Every loss, you should be with and against players 20-25 SR (actually the MMR equivalent) below the previous loss, since that’s how much your SR went down. You are suggesting if you’ve fallen from 2500 to 2400 because you’re playing like the average 2000 SR player does that it suddenly puts you against 2000 SR players so that you’re not “demoralized.” That has no place in a ranked game. Hence, you should always stop playing after 3 losses max. If your output is that much below your current rank, you should expect to lose the vast majority of your matches until your output is approximately appropriate for the rank you’ve fallen to.
EDIT: Added you to ignore list because of other thread. So I won’t see your reply.
I think you’re confusing the odds of predicting the correct outcome of lets say 100 coin flips before you have even done the first flip vs odds of each flip independently being heads.
That’s a whole other issue.
if the match maker is a true 50% win chance system then each game is independent of the games in the past as far as win/lose outcome. Other than moving the player’s own MMR up or down.
So every game is still just 50/50 win chance. Meaning oh I can’t lose the next game or I can’t win the next game is pure gambler’s fallacy
There is a reason every college stats professor use a coin flip to explain gamblers fallacy in the first place. It’s just the purest form of odds people can understand.
Look at what I replied to and what I said. There is in fact approximately a 1% chance of performing 10 coin flips and having exactly 1 be tails. Why you brought up the gambler’s fallacy is beyond me. I said nothing about a subsequent flip, nor anything about prior flips.
But this assumes that you’re basically afk in the game. If you happen to lose 10 games in a row, sometimes it’s your fault other times it’s not your fault. At the core, if it’s at least somewhat even matchups with no one giving up then this is ok. The matches are statistically balanced, it’s unfortunate that you lost 10 games in a row but the matches were even.
What you’re literally asking for, is to be handed a free win for doing nothing but afk’ing in spawn because you’ve lost 10 games in a row and you think this is an ideal system?
I never said a free win. What I said is that the algorithm should account for the psychological factor of consecutive losses by increasing the probability of a win. I said nothing about handing out free wins.
Statistically even assumes, also, no smurfs, leavers, rage quiters, etc. Aint the case.
Ok so let’s go back to my first example of inconsistent players playing anywhere from gold to diamond skill level. So with your latest statement you’re saying that because you’ve lost 10 games in a row, the matchmaker should be able to pull information about the people sitting behind the computer screen and how warmed up they are, how not tired or tilted they are and how they’re going to play out of their minds?
Dude I dunno what world you live in, but if you think Blizzards MM is able to pull biological data/info and use that in their matchmaker, you shouldn’t be talking bad about it.
No I mean the formula should simply be adjusted so that the next match is a little easier. Has nothing to do with why you lost or biological data. Instead of 50 / 50, make it 60 / 40.
At the absolute minimum, even if they do nothing with the algorithm, at least throw some extra loot boxes or something to make up for the terrible matchmaker.
(Oh and this would also help with smurfing. Each next win makes a loss more likely, so when they win 7 games in silver, it ramps up their opponents exponentially. Maybe then they wont sit around decimating gold players when they are masters level.)
If you had enough brains to figure that out, how come you still cant figure why you lose so often lol
It is because I have enough brains to identify a broken system when I see one. If you are another “MM is fine, no issues here” then go ahead and defend Blizz and their MM.
But in doing so you are ignoring mountains of evidence that there are problems. Not even to mention smurfs, leavers, trolls, throwers, etc. Even without those things, the algorithm does not factor in streaks. And it should.
You still don’t get it. How are you going to make it 60/40? By putting a bot on the enemy team? How do you think they’re going to feel? Do you think that the enemy team is going to feel good about playing this? What happens when you start winning too much so then you get the bot?
I never said anything about a bot lol.
It is simple - win streaks and loss streaks. Winners should get progressively harder games, losers should get progressively easier games. It swaps back to 50 / 50 after the winners lose or the losers win.
It is the best way to stop mass loss / win streaks.
There are lots of ways to implement this. But it has an inherent structure that is like a yin and yang.
Team A has an avg rank of 2300 lets say and they are on a win streak.
Team B has an avg rank of 2500 and they are on a loss streak.
Make Team A and Team B face off. Team B (losers) are now favored to win. Team A (winners) are favored to lose. How symbiotic!
The SR gain for Team A would be bigger since they were favored to lose (and if Team B wins, they at least get the satisfaction of winning but a very minor SR gain).
It is honestly a win win. Team A gets the chance to prove themselves against a better team, but if they lose it doesnt hurt SR much. Team B gets to experience a win but doesnt gain much SR.
It would be an excellent system and easy to do.
So even in games, we should sugar coat things for the babies that don’t want to admit it’s their own fault? Why blame the algorithm when it’s the players that destroyed it?
This is your perfect example of this forum’s, “OMG this game has so many smurfs”.
Why are you trying to bend MM to your will so you can rig everything to favor you? Why not just play the game within your control and not care about what the number associated to your rank is? I was literally 2500 days ago, I’m back in 2900 on open queue (the game mode I prefer). I don’t need MM to do anything to make me feel better, I know that some days I’m just bad and other days I’m doing well. When players emotions are what controls a MM, that’s when it’s truly rigged.
This has nothing to do with smurfs. I also don’t see how if you read what I wrote and actually understood it you would be talking about bending the MM so that it is always in my favor.
It favors whoever is on a losing streak. It is an extra factor the MM could consider. I gave you an example that is simple to understand.
Instead of bringing up randomness, why dont you address the proposed change to MM? It has no downsides and would have a major upside - preventing huge losing streaks. That is a major win in my book.
Bruv the games do get easier as you drop and it requires no output change from MM because difficulty scales to your input lol
The only big problem matchmaker has, is players thinking they deserve more lol