People love trying to discredit overbuff but donât ever bring another source to combat it lol.
Overbuff isnât perfect but itâs the best we have.
Also Iâm curious, what do you base your balance arguments off of if not Overbuff?
Why people use it? Because thatâs the only data we have access to
overwatch.op.gg/heroes/global/winrate/competitive
There is still massive statistical bias everywhere with in Overbuff being the sample set isnât neutral. People just keep over looking that and parroting the same basic lines about sample size, sample size, you see you only need a small sample size to extract blah blah blah.
but the sample set still needs to be neutral and due to the nature of private profiles and what a person in Overwatch catches grief for in game it mostly destroyed Overbuff.
most of all when we are talking about stats for unpopular heroes that a person might, in the old system, catch the most crud from others on the team for playing. Like rank up as Brig/Mercy and play DPS or be very low rank last season, but not look boosted etc.
So that sort of player and players with losing records are WAY more likely to keep or move a profile back to private.
Do well on DPS or tank? Maybe you open up your private.
Just massive, massive bias now everywhere
the issue people have with Overbuff isnât about the sample size side of stat, itâs the bias issues.
The only thing Overbuff is good for anymore is maybe trends. Like how Moria has moved up in pick rate at high SR or how Baptiste is so low in lower SR ranges.
but private profiles more or less ruined all 3rd party stat sites, IMO that was by design.
The problem with that is that if Sigma is having a 16+% pickrate, his winrate would have to be 50%. If no GM team is willing to play without Sigma, then there would be one winning Sigma and one losing Sigma, evening out the winrate to 50%. That currently isnât the case.
That only matters if youâre looking at supports only compared to eachother. I donât do that.
GM players arenât always playing against GMâs.
My impression is that itâs more work for them to fix than they feel itâs worth as they area aware of it.
Yes.
But, itâs always been impacted by having access to only a limited portion of the player base. If nobody looked for you and you didnât end up in a scrape overbuff didnât have you.
If you look at the archive.org before and after private profiles you will not see much movement.
Overbuff is not perfect data but, itâs a big upgrade over nothing.
Itâs not accurate, especially since some people who main X hero have a private profile more often than people who main Y hero, for example
Thats certainly a fair theory, but realistically that just didnât happen.
If it were true, then you could look at the trends of things, you would have expected a big drop on heroes such as Brig or Mercy, as they hide their profiles as to not get bullied or whatnot. But that just didnt happen. Like I said, there was only a minimal difference between before and after. Saying that everyone hid their profiles and skewed everything just doesnt hold up.
And when you think about it, it makes sense. The site used by more people than just one tricks and boosted scrubs. Theyâre used by people who want to win, and have been willing to flex around different heroes in an effort to reach that goal. Those same players are also more likely to keep their profiles open. If anything, one could argue that itâs more accurate now that we donât have one tricks skewing the data to make certain heroes seem stronger than they are.
Either way, in the end, we can agree on one thing. Even if the numbers arent 100% exactly accurate, we can still use the site to get a decent idea of todays trends and tactics.
Regardless. Masters players emulate GM players, and having a 16% pickrate requires a sigma on both sides.
Overbuff has my profile up to the point where I made it private.
It also has no idea about my other account which I never registered there.
Blizzard really ought to give us access to similar statistics at this point.
(Not that they would⌠It might make them look bad)
Itâs a small sample size now, but since Blizzard is taking the stance of just hiding as much information as they can rather than admit there are problems (being able to see who is grouped as the latest example) itâs all we got.
No. People will tell you otherwise, but in statistics, you need only a 10% sample of a population to make an accurate prediction with a 95% confidence interval. The amount of public profiles are higher than 10%, so itâs probably 99% accurate.
That said, no one on the forums knows how to use statistics, so they just use whatever data supports their claim, and bends/twists the numbers to make stupid interpretations based on whatever their current reality is. This is why anyone spouting overbuff statistics isnât to be taken seriously - they generally have no idea what theyâre talking about.
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Itâs important to remember that a relatively small sample group is required for statistical accuracy - only a few thousand playersâ stats need to be recorded in order for the information to be considered reliable.
Having said that, itâs always better to look at trends rather than the hard numbers themselves.
but I think thing the over all number of accounts and players has just tanked, making the issues of stat bias even worse. Like early OG heroes, before private profiles, will have QP rankings out of 300k+ sort of numbers. Moria? 175k, Baptiste? Itâs out 12k.
So right there⌠are we looking at stats for 300k+ Rein accounts vs only 12k Baptiste accounts? So one Baptiste playerâs stats weighted to the tune of 25 Rein players?
I really do think private profiles just wrecked the 3rd party sites and it was, tinfoil hat on, totally deliberate on the part of Blizzard to mask balance and match making issues.
I mean sure itâs all we have so there is some merit to it but I really have a hard time trusting the numbers anymore. Itâs just an easy way to check âOh my over all death rate is down, good.â
Polling data is garbage and only reflects the reality of a miniscule percentage which cannot be extrapolated onto the massive populace.
Any attempt to extrapolate data in such a way will always end in failure with 100% certainty.
But is the sample size selected from a uniform distribution? That is just as important if we are treating statistics of the sample to be an estimate of the statistics of the whole.
Iâd like to see some data on the distribution of private profiles if any exists.
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None of the stats on Overbuff are important anyway. The only reason to use it is if you donât want to or donât know enough about the game to understand the meta.
Overbuff was always opt-in. And in order to make it function, you have to have a public profile. So there is an actual incentive for people to public their profile provided by Overbuff.
The sample bias is largely just people who care about stats.