So I have a WR with butcher at 58%, but only in QM. Does that mean im better than most people in my skill level with Butch?
Though QM has its own Hidden MMR, the heroes I practice on and I am bad at, lowered my MMR but then its QM so it just teams up anyone these days…
The players of equal skill level is subjective
There is a high chance yes.
You dont have to win to get better. Premades are in a small amount of your games. But in the end if its QM and you play for practice, I think you have no real problems with that, right?
I 've noticed the better you are, the more fair the games feel (for you :D).
Coincidence, but not correlation.
Progress: if you get better at executing your hero, macro, or coaching, you can make more of matches over a longer time and improve your rating. Depending on your limitations you may never make it to GM #1, but you can get better. Easier to observe the other way around, if you intentionally just fool around, you’ll keep losing.
Influence: If you are at your exact rank, then you are perfectly average, so you have a 50% chance to win. If the MM succeeds at putting together perfectly fair matches, then there is a 50% chance for either side to win. By design, by definition. It is all decided by a tip of a needle, and your influence is exactly zero.
But, having lost, you are now rated a little less, so your influence is a tiny bit above zero.
It’s a bit hard to figure out what’s your influence when you are the weak or the strong link in the team, given it all adds up, and it’s zero, but from an execution perspective you may feel like you keep it together by carrying or not failing.
Also, the MM doesn’t always create exact 50-50 and it’s up to you to capitalize on it.
Also, some people do it in a volatile fashion. So their influence is zero over a hundred matches, but they have throw days and then tryhard days. OTP countered and OTP abuse days. And they can change the ratio. But it’s not like you can step above your limits. You can drink an extra coffee or two, but then it either becomes your baseline or you’ll fall back.
So it’s 99.99% about the macro game, improving yourself, OR, very big OR, just having fun, shootin arrows and wearing people down with your beam, or impaling people with nasty spikes the 13932th time, because it’s fun how they fly up a little. Just think about Orb Mings. Whoosh, bam! They’re having the best time! Alongside cheery Tracer.
And don’t forget the big one: what the hell does Blizzard gain by forcing you to lose matches?
It only serves to have people make conspiracy theorys about matchmaker nothing els.
I’m going to venture a guess that you haven’t bothered to have read any of the other topics claiming “50% win rate it real” for this, or any other game, as people make the same claims over and over again.
The functional problem with that is the sort of players that ‘think’ they found it to be ‘real’ keep posting the same tripe, don’t read how their claims have been repeated for years on end, debunked, and shown how their grasp of ‘proving’ the ‘forced 50%’ all falls into the same rut of skill levels by players that keep refusing to observe better, think more, and improve their play to get out of that rut.
The basic just falls into presumptions that so long as they can blame ‘the system’, then they can forgo their own contribution, faults, and neglect typical mistakes in favor of professing how much better they are, and everyone else is dragging them down. After enough back-and-forth replies, it comes out they were less-than-honest with their assertion of game play patters, personal contribution, and made bigger mistakes, while allies made better plays then they’re willing to accept because the whole ‘proof’ is a cycle of confirmation bias that people don’t bother to consider because they lack the skill and experience to notice that crap, let alone realize how players further up the ranks than they are don’t belly ache over this stuff for years on end.
Besides of your coward behaviour you will also never climb too fast because of losing rankpoints after dodging. This way you make sure that you won’t ever reach the rank where your actual skill level is. So cogratz to you for staying bronze forever at a winrate of 70%
Also claiming that there are no comeback mechanics and that the game is lost by draft is proof of poor knowledge base.
I don’t loose rank points; for each draft dodge 200 points are withdrawn and returned 50 at a time. This stacks.
MMR, not rank, is equivalent to skill (at least according to B*).
Your argument is that I have poor knowledge, whilst I am able to predict winchance of my matches beyond 50%? Do enlighten me then how I can stage a comeback from the terrible draft and win those ~20% of the matches. Remember: I’m “stuck” at 50% without draft dodge, so doing anything better is out of the question (and also dumb given the skill disparity between me and people I play with).
I know the 50% win rate isn’t real but it does feel like it sometimes.
Playing in a stack normally I have a ~53%+ win rate. Examples from the other night:
As soon as we go 4 stack instead of 5 we get matched with the worst players etc. The B3 that refuses to play anything but Chromie and lose ~150 points (ok they were favoured).
We get a Silver (They get all Diamonds, Plats and a Gold) who decides to ARAM all game and then flames us when he dies alone. Lose another ~190 point (ok they were favoured also I guess)
Go back to 5 stack. Proceed to win all the rest of the games.
While I know there isn’t a forced 50% win rate: How does the game know they would lose? Some days it certainly feels like it.
Side note: A couple of our regulars have decided to quit after those matches (and the amount of smurfs in ANZ).
I’m certain you lose 500 when you draft dodge and you get back 50 over 10 games BUT it does not stack
The problem with the system is that it does often expect higher MMR players to carry lesser players instead of pitting equal skill players with and against each other.
I’m not so sure if its a population problem either. This game had matchmaking like that even when it was more populated. I guess the lower population and changes to MM amplified it a bit though.
I don’t think Blizzard has it out to make you lose but at the same time I believe that they do have an objective to make fair matches and 50% might be the representation of fair that they have chosen for this game.
It’s a system that can seem like an anchor wrapped around your neck! Would be nice to have a system that brings you from a child to a soldier fighting with other well trained soldiers! Sometimes it feels like your the well trained soldier playing with the children!
I’ve been saying it for a while now: The system will intentionally take Good players who are winning a lot, have good stats (average number of kills, typical damage output per match), etc, and stick them with the chumps who are losing a lot, in a bid to balance things out.
Some call it the “Mentor-ship Que”. Those instances when it seems like you can’t catch a break regarding your teammates? How it seems the system always matches you with these losers that can’t hold their own for anything, leading to devastating loss after loss? It’s not in your head and, you aren’t having a “string of bad luck”. The system is intentionally drafting you to play with the garbage players out there.
My best advice: If you suffer (3) terrible matches in a row? STOP playing. Take a break. And come back later. If your keep playing, those losses will just rack up. The idea is when you log-in later, you’ll be out of the mentorship Que by then and, can start having ‘normal’ matches again.
Edit: For the record, i’m fine with losses if we were legitemently outfought. What makes the salt mines flow is when i’m consistently being matched with garbage players and, i never had a shot to begin with.
It’s not hard to notice some obstacles/difficulties and just giving up.
But you have no proof you’d lose the games you abandoned.
And since you keep getting Dodge penalty (which affects your MMR), you’re technically just Smurfing, keeping your MMR lower than your actual skill lvl. Honestly it’s weird that your winrate is only 70% this way.
I am no draft dodging expert but I also thought that the punishment gets stricter the more frequently you do it and at some point you won’t get back full of the lost ranking points. No idea how it has an impact on your MMR as well…
Anyways, bragging around with a 70% winrate in 50 games, therefore abusing the mechanics by dodging all the unpromising drafts is just embarrassing and doesn’t require any ‘prediction skills’. On the top of that, this guy is also missing out any relevant informations (rank placement, where did he start at, smurfaccount (?), which modes is he playing resp. on which modes did he achieve this winrate).
I’m not sure how but I think I’ve had the 500 points loss with only 300 gained back (50 each game over 6 games) but I am not sure how this happened or why.
“Blizzard doesn’t force a 50% winrate, they just make sure you only win 50% of your games.”
Glad you joined the party! 
ya mean, if you ignore all the other times people have posted those, and get tired of repeating stuff that people are going to read anyway cuz they’d just as soon as think they’re already ‘right’. The sort of people that made bad cases for stuff aren’t going to win a Pulitzer over an ‘argument’ on a game forum.
Funny how people that don’t pay attention don’t bring an ‘actual argument’ but keep demanding everyone else have one instead.
So you just admitted that there are unpromising drafts, therefore making games not a 50% match but rather an uneven show in which your impact has to exceed the negative impact of the bad draft to win the not-in-your-favor match. That’s a natural 50% gravitation, causing MMR~skill failure within the system by means of a local maxima (creating pooling). Glad you agree.
I turned a 50% stable winrate into a virtual ~70% winrate whilst me and my assigned fellow players were steadily going up in rank (within bounds of the stable winrate deviation). That is to say, I threw ~15% of my matches away that I know are going to end in a loss and I did not take a hit. Those matches are lost, or I would have been going down.
Also, 100 games with 15%, gives 1 out of 5 played. So my dodge penalty is gone.
Think less yolo and more experiment setup.