Is this intended? When I look at my match history, nearly one complete page are loosing matches or winning matches.
When I loose 2 games in a row I can say that I will loose the next 4-8 games too. No matter what I do, which hero or game type I play. No matter if I take a break from the game and relax meanwhile. Same for winning streaks.
It’s not a question of game performance.
Am I wrong when I say:
The chance for 1 win is 50% (or should be)
The chance for 2 wins in a row 0,5x0,5= 0,25 = 25%
The chance for 6 wins in a row are is 0,5^6 = 0,015 = 1,5% ( nearly)
Easy math. Even if you add some bias there shouldn’t be all these streaks in a row…
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How many ppl play in your opinion?
Surely enough that 1,5 out of 100 is not that rare anymore.
Plus your mindset that “I know I’ll lose” doesn’t help.
I don’t face big streaks, so there’s nothing ingmae that leads to it.
The factors are the players (which are rather random).
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I think my mindset don’t count that much if I set my game performance in contrast to the other players.
Statistics don’t lie. Math is always true.
Streaks are intended. The HotS devs thought people would get “bored” if all of their games had a 50% chance of winning so they give you easy stomp games and unwinnable games to make you enjoy the game more.
I wish I was joking but they actually announced this in a Q&A.
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The math based on my own experience and gaming history tell me that losing streaks or winning streaks being part of something specific or intentional is completely bogus.
Yeah, math and statistics are “never” wrong. Except when humans try to understand it. Especially when they have huge bias. Or maybe they don’t see all the math or statistics.
Continue to believe that there’s some huge conspiracy or that Blizzard are weirdos and love to put massive amounts of time making an unnecessarily complicated matchmaker just to mess with a few specific individuals.
If that helps you sleep at night.
There’s a lot of potential reasons for why you have these back-and-fourths. And the basic solution would just be to git gud.
Fyi, I’ve had 10-win streaks before. Had them up to 12, too.
Based on your math, the chance for a 10-winstreak is: 0,00097 or 0,097%. My 12-winstreak was 0,024% chance thing.
Source?
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It’s not just you.
I have had a recurring experience ever since I started playing. Every. Single. Time. I want to preface by saying that I earnestly try to be positive in every game, but it is very, very apparent by the attitudes of players when the system has blue screen’d.
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Start playing solo queue, have 3-4 days of enjoyable matches, mostly balanced on both sides. Everyone has an idea of how to play at worst, are usually stellar. Regardless of who’s winning, people reciprocate positivism, fun is had by all.
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No matter my win record or performance in these games, start getting matched with utter mouth-breathers for teammates every. Single. Game. This goes on for at least a week, often two if I let it. Any win that scrapes by is, quite frankly, on my back, and I do not claim to be an amazing player.
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Quit game, usually in disgust by one week. Reinstall several weeks or months later. Back to stage one of enjoyment for a while, disgust soon after.
Hypothesis: matchmaking was designed by a new intern on a Friday and will never be fixed. Company should bite the bullet and hire someone who knows what they’re doing to fix it, but that’s not an option anymore either.
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Why don’t u try really hard to lose after u win 1-2 games?
I’m sure u will lose. It will break the winning streak and break the curse
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I am a scientist myself. If you want to talk about conspiracy or my night sleep I am the wrong discussion partner.
But the fact that wins and looses are clustered is hard to deny. If I look at the match history of the other players it’s very common.
Surely we can talk about bias. But if you play well, let’s say 90-95%of your max performance your influence of the game result isn’t that high.
Yeah I see the same thing. win a bunch in a row, then boom…cant win for anything. no matter what…im GOING TO LOSE.
Source?
https://imgoat.com/uploads/872ed9fc22/185195.png
There and…
start watching at 44:20.
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I feel same to. But i guess its just the way it is
It doesn’t happen to me often. I don’t have big streaks (be it win or lose) a lot of times.
But even when I do, I can know why.
If you [a scientist (pretty vague)] would take your time to try to understand the influences your matches have instead of trying to just sweep the whole “problem” under the rag as “Blizz does this to me”, as someone with a critical mindset would do, you could already see some reasons.
Some basics that can help you:
- Your overall winrate with the Hero you’re playing atm influences your outcome (even if you play at your “max”, for example, if you play with a Hero you have 40% wr, you are more likely to face losing streaks).
- If you win, your mmr gets higher, if your mmr is higher you probably end up more and more in matches where the MM think you’re the best of your team, which might not be true and you fall back to your place.
- If you lose, your mmr gets lower, so you get easier and easier time to win, because you got lower than where you can climb up.
- Believe it or not, your mindset does influence you! As a man of science, you shouldn’t exclude this possibility. If you think you’ll lose, you cannot play your max. Defeatist mindset doesn’t help to get wins.
And math:
- All your matches have an individual chance of (around) 50% to be a win or lose, regardless of your previous matches. That’s how statistics work.
- Streaks have a lower statistical chance (when you’re aiming to have them), but the more you play, and the more ppl play, the more guarantueed those “outliers” become (law of large nubmers).
(Sidenote: toss some coins and see the outcomes, see how often streaks occur or not.
And monitor your match outcomes to see truly how often streaks happen to you, tho binary system are not known for diversity, if you can only W or L, streaks will always happen, especially if someone counts even small streaks too.)
Nice try, Alex Jones, but nowhere does it say anything even remotely close to what you claim your sources say. Unless of course you are deliberately trying to misinterpret what is being said.
First the dev post. It was said that people on winning streaks get matched with people on losing streaks, which - I admit - sounds really stupid on paper. Dices and memory sort of thing. Might have been due to MMR and rank being separate that time, which apparently complicated a lot of things. Dunno, poorly written post. The important thing however is right in the end: the matchmaker still tries to make it a 50/50 game, which to my knowledge isn’t exactly the same thing as forcing a win or loss.
Then the video from 2016 and discussing matchmaking and ranking systems in general, as in not necessarily in HotS (The game probably doesn’t even get mentioned once). When asked about uneven matchmaking, he says he has heard good and bad suggestions on why and how it could be done. According to his own experiences, he sees it could work in some games. Again, never saying this is what is happening in HotS. And never does he say uneven means either guaranteed win or loss, just easier or harder.
My personal take on all the conspiracy theories flying around here: there’s no conspiracy. Coding a fair multiplayer matchmaker is hard. Coding a deliberately uneven matchmaker would require a fair matchmaker as starting point. You can complain about us having the worst matchmaker or you can complain about us having an extremely sophisticated unfair matchmaker but you can’t complain about both without sounding like a fool.
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What would be the point of designing such a system? What would Blizzard gain by doing so? If there is an intention to create streaks, there would have to be some benefit to it, otherwise it is just a misunderstanding of statistics when applied to a single data point, your match history.
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If I had even streaks of 3+ alternating for a couple weeks, I would be wondering, too. My case is more random, except for a trend at the beginning this season, which seems to have normalized.
I do notice that the game tends to give me easier and harder matches based on stuff, but there is another dynamic I don’t understand, but the part of me believes in conspiracies finds curious.
What’s funny though is how hit & miss it is. I got stomped yesterday once and as usual, lost extra. I was complementing a 3 stack, but I don’t seem to remember to get an adjustment when queueing alone.
Something I notciced is that player skill and rank seems to desync at various points in the season, but I don’t know a reason. Time of day might also be a factor, or weekends. But, it’s not like weekend or morning is easier or harder: one time it’s this, then it’s the other. Smurfs do have an effect but they shouldn’t push the entire population by a whole tier (e.g. Gold becomes Silver). In any event, if you find yourself playing out of sync with this waving effect, you might see streakiness.
(I’m tracking my season stats and it’s certainly visible at a macro level.)
Doesn’t your win streak support the claim blizzard gives you artificial ups and downs? The odds of all wins or losses for 10-12 games is extremely low.
ROFL, If I’m Alex Jones, you are a flat-earther trying to deny reality. I will never understand how desperate folks are on the forums to not believe the truth.
Can you say with a straight face that you would not have complained the same if you had a 1win 1 loss pattern over and over instead?
Or would you come saying it is MM way to “enforce 50% wr”?
What winrate do you think you deserve? 80%wr at the bare minimum?
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It’s not about winning every game, but my last (and current) losing streak was around 12 losses in a row, but the game would tell me “GoOd JoB, YoU hEaLeD BeTtEr ThAn 70% oF AvErAgE” each match.
Like that’s supposed to make up for my teammates diving solo into 5 person fights for 12 games straight. 
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It’s not about winning, and yes I probably would complain if it was always win loss win loss.
But that isn’t the point. It’s the fact that the game would rather give you lower quality matches instead of higher quality matches if you do well, and then eventually flip-flop if you are doing poorly. If I’m “overperforming,” I don’t want to be given “underperforming” players to try and artificially get my winrate lower. It doesn’t feel good and it doesn’t belong in any game.
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