Forced 50% winrate

Almost as real as Bigfoot.

But seriously, why is this game’s matchmaker so bad that it always either grossly underestimates or grossly overestimates my skill level?

My last 2 games were even on a Surface Pro 2 which is a glorified tablet connected to University WiFi. Even with the client locking up every 2 seconds I still managed to pull out easy wins.

Can you please do a better job of assessing skill in this game? I know this is going to be met with a huge loss streak eventually when the game grossly overestimates my skill level.

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Nice casual flex
I personally don’t believe in the forced 50% winrates. I think it just honestly is trying to put you into the fairest games possible, but the accuracy is as good as an ai can get and the available people online at one time to put you up against is very limited

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Here’s the thing, though.

That’s what, a 12 game win streak? (I just happened to casually notice I had a 12 game win streak when trying to get the comp of my last match)

If I were truly at my skill level, the probability of me winning a match should have been 50%.

The probability of a streak of 12 at 50% can be quantified by the binomial distribution.

nCr ( P )^n ( P )^( n - r )

12 choose 12 (.5)^12(.5)^(12-12) = (.5)^12 = 0.000024 = 0.0024%

Streaks like this shouldn’t happen as often as they do, but they do.

The point is matchmaking isn’t working.

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Well, I’m not really seeing any solutions being suggested, and i’m sure anyone who plays the game is quite aware of the issue. I’m sorry if I lost the point of this discussion, but it really does feel like you’re just showing off your win streak then trying to make it about a topic discussed to death. The best you can do for this topic is talk about how you feel about it, which there isn’t going to be too much to that. If you’re winning a lot, then you weren’t in a place you should’ve been, so these games will keep adjusting you until it fits you into a better skill level.

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I’m giving a data point of reference.

The point is, after what, 4,500 games played in Quick Match at some point the game should have correctly measured my skill level.

I’m ALWAYS in a place I shouldn’t have been… That in a nutshell is the complaint.

It’s also not really my job to fix it or suggest ways to fix it, I’m merely pointing out it’s broken.

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Alright, you did your job. This hardly is a thread for discussion. I would’ve just posted this in a thread already covering this topic, rather than have a vague title on a hot topic and just have it be your personal experience.

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Mine’s stayed pretty even at 50%, actually. Then again, I don’t particularly care to increase or decrease it. I just want to have fair and fun matches.

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50% win rate is normal when you play against people of the same skill. Unless you are way too good than the rest of playerbase you’ll always have a higher than 50%.
Complaints about 50% forced win rate are ludicrous. I have heard it in LoL, Dota, and now even here.
It’s a denial reflex by people who don’t believe they simply need to get better.

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I’m not complaining about a forced 50% winrate, I was making a joke.

I know… just saying because I have heard way too much recently

this is something that most people can’t understand
common sense isn’t so common

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I’m on the other end of the spectrum. I’m at 29% win rate right now compared to 54% last season.

I don’t even want to play anymore. Doesn’t matter what mode I try, it’s just awful.

League? My team loses the draft every damn time. Like, why would you last pick Illidan when they already have Jo and Cassia.

I dunno, it’s hard to enjoying the game anymore when I’m always losing and if I’m forced to play with an Abathur that picks Monstrosity again, I’m gonna lose my sh*t.

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But monstrosity is actually amazing for offlane pushes on maps with a objective that appears on one side of the map or the other, and you lose the hat ability with his other ult, while monstrosity can auto push. In fact 9 out of 10 games I take monstrosity, especially now that it has global movement and you can bring it into a fight once it is buffed.

So you played 12 QM in 3 days with mostly good QM heroes (except Stukov, but hey he’s not bad either for clowfiesta) and you came here to brag first plus making a joke that forced 50% isnt a thing. We can agree: it isnt. It’s an excuse for players to not look in the mirror.

Let talk about what you did:
You used your 12 streak QM winstreak (again with heroes who generally good in QM) to make that joke. I really don’t see why you did this, i mean lots of folks go for these kind of streaks, happened in everybody’s life.

But I guess it’s QM forum. I only saw 1 (1!) good high ranked player here (from EU), so you did good come here and brag about your meaningless 12 streak QM wins.

Let the brag begin:
210k dmg with Mephisto in SL yesterday. Again: Who cares?

But to be fair if you post 12 games (make it 10) win streak in SL then i will upvote you and tell you GJ.

It does not, naturally, over small sample sizes (12 is small)

It does over hundreds of games.

What are all the team comps? QM mostly bases on MMR, rather than team comp. so you could happen to find 12 games where the MMR/etc suggests a 50% winrate, but in reality “MMR per character” and “team composition” == much higher than 50%.

The fact there are a few heroes reenforcea that point for me, what are you individual winrate son these heroes in QM?

For example, I did dozens of games as Murky in HL with an old version at nearly 70% winrate.

I think I was 68.5% winrate over 80 games of something.

My “average” MMR was lower than my “effective MMR” as murky.

But to little information (of the little information we can get easily) is given to even rule our other possibilities.

Give more info… overload with info!

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We’ve been there before, that part isn’t the issue, it’s the part that comes after.

You played 12 games in Quickmatch in a row? Even with them all being wins, that sounds beyond painful…

Actually that picture shows nothing.
What league approximately are you?
Were you playing solo?
Were you playing with 4 teammates?
Were you playing with 4 teammates, out of which 3 made a smurf and your games were pure stomps on new players?

With right circumstances, I can show you a streak of 20 wins, or 10 wins 10 loss games or 20 loss games. Picture proves nothing.

QM is not the right environment on which calculate skill level, because there you cut out a basic part of the game itself: pick / counter pick. Without that you may win or loose by almost only team comp (or at last have a big advantage or disadvantage) and that has none to do with skill of both team.

QM can only have a very approximate level of MM but it will always be far worse than the Ranked one (that already has its own issue).

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a 50% win rate is the defining characteristic of a successful match making algorithm. It is precisely the goal of the system to get you to win half of your games. It is an indication that you are where you belong in terms of MMR.

It does feel too streaky though. I was 12/13 the other day and then last night i couldn’t win a match to save my life. A little more balance game to game would be nice.

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