6k QM matchs, 48.9% win rate across roles, nice algo blizz

No I’m pretty sure this game expecting me to main tank as XUL, SOMEHOW, is actually the reason why I lose most QM games as Xul actually.

I think this is another extention of should-healer-solo/off-lane-if-need-be debate. In short, debate was about if you as a healer should soak off lane yourself if none of your teammate does.

My opinion was no, you shouldn’t in that debate. I would say the same thing in this, no, you shouldn’t tank as Xul in QM.

What does it even mean to tank in QM in this context? It more or less means acting as a frontline. I say you don’t necessarily need it (if your team doesn’t have a tank, so doesn’t your enemy). Other than during obj of course.

It’s such a waste to put Xul in 4-man. Either stay solo/off lane (in large map) or double soak (in small map) and let your 4-man bombard the leftover lane, forcing enemy team to do the same (which, not many solo laners can double soak efficiently, putting your team in an advantage).

and then you lose every single team fight in the game because you are your only teams Melee, and they have 2 mages and also a Thrall and Sonya

Team fight and skirmishes are not really the same. I did go over the obj part, which is the team fight (I basically said you should participate in it). If your team gets hammered everytime in skirmishes, that’s on them.

And if Thrall and Sonya in the enemy team are in their 4-man, who’s their solo/off laner anyway?

Lets put this in ranked terms using quick (and very tired) math. 6k matches at 48.9% WR leaves a deficit of 66 matches. Which is about 13 full divisions. So if OP started from Gold 2 that kind of net loss would put him into Bronze 5. And all kinds of weirdness happen in that ELO that may seem like cheating, soaking for example.

They did and made a huge post explaining the matchmaking and how it works like 4-5 yeras ago or something. It was even posted and pinned here, but I can’t find it. If someone would please share that again, I believe it was AzJackson who posted it.

EDITED:

Found it! Here

Because of low playerbase. There’s just not enough players for a fair match, specially when the matchmaking still has to consider not only mmr, but also groups, roles, somewhat fast queues etc.

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I appreciate the imitation of my speech patterns/ideas. However the fact remains that the algorithms are not as they pretend to be.

Agreed, to these posters, Blizzard has both completely abandoned Hots and is “cheap”, yet at the same time they claim that Blizzard “puts illegal bots into my game to make me lose.”

I mean, the cognitive dissonance is real, but anyone with a modicum of critical thinking skills would understand it takes money to tinker with the algorithm and make “illegal bots”, simply to hurt the player experience.

Again, I don’t like Blizzard or many of their practices, but I feel confident they aren’t spending any time/money on Hots, other than the bare minimum. If Blizz wanted to pull the plug on Hots, they would just do it straight up without needing to resort to convoluted methods.

I suppose it’s more comforting to think of Blizz scheming away, to explain why you have a 48% wr in QM, rather than, you know, blame yourself, or try to improve.

The pure one is gonna call you a “normie” now, watch out!

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It is pretty obvious they are as that is fundamentally how serious competitive games work.

For someone to be winning significantly more than 50% of the time it will usually be the result of them stomping significantly lower skilled opponents. This could be seen in all the “bronze to master” series various HotS streamers made in the past where the streamers had well over 80% win rates in bronze. Logically the system notices this is happening and pushes up their MMR. By the time they reached platinum the skill gap had closed massively and their win rate was dropping closer to 60%. Once they reached diamond and masters their win rate pretty much reaches 50% as they are now starting to see people close to their skill level as opponents.

The opposite can happen as well. For example when unskilled players somehow managed to end up in high ranks like platinum they are likely to have win rates below 40%. This causes them to lose MMR and rank and so start to be matched with/against less skilled people, closer to their skill level. Eventually they will start to settle around the rank/MMR that produces a 50% win rate.

One can also think of it from a purely logical perspective. If someone is winning more or less than 50% of the time, it shows that the match was not fair. If someone is winning >80% of the time it would mean they are stomping people a small fraction of their skill level, and like wise if they end up losing 80% of the time it means they are being stomped by people vastly more skilled than they are. The purpose of MMR is to try to generate seemingly more fair matches to try and keep the chance for either side winning at 50%, with any deviation from that representing someone not being matched at their skill.

QM does use MMR, Blizzard has mentioned it at multiple times and new players do not appear in most QM matches with regulars. However, QM is QM so the match maker does cut corners, often favouring matching time over perfectly balanced matches. For example, it might throw a well coordinated team against a bunch of random people due to a lack of similar team to fight. Such a team might have an insane MMR variance, so finding appropriately skilled opponents might be difficult. There might not even be enough opponents of matching class types to balance the match up, causing class types to be unbalanced.

However given that both yourself and the topic creator have ~50% win rates it shows that the MMR system in QM is doing a fairly decent job of avoiding throwing absolute beginners into all your games, or always throwing you against far more skilled opponents.

ARAM has no match maker as far as I am aware so it throws people of any skill levels together. As such it is fairly normal for skilled people to have over 60% win rates in ARAM while unskilled people will be below 40%. This is what being allowed to stomp newbies does.

QM tries to push you towards a 50% win rate as match count goes to infinity, but due to factors I covered above it is still possible to deviate from that. For example playing in parties, or using heroes that are hard for random comps to counter. Even playing a variety of heroes can skew it as your skill level may vary between heroes in a way the system cannot guess. Still it has managed to keep you around 60%, which is roughly in the same ball park of average skill as opposed to just letting you stomp newbies.

It likely does not have any logic for “main tank” and instead just sees a bruiser and throws it against another bruiser or possibly even tank.

QM is QM, if you do not want such randomness thrown in then I recommend playing ranked. Your team can choose heroes such that there are main tanks and if you are forced to main tank you can choose a more suitable hero.

The system has a method of “balance” in place. Basically if you win too much, as soon as you leave your 5-stack and dare to jump in alone? The system immediately starts to stick you with the chumps. Till you eat enough losses to bring down your win-rate to at LEAST a 50%.

A while back some members here theorized that this is done to “help” weaker players out there. By having these intervals where the really good players get stuck with these chumps for a time, it’s thought to have a “Mentor-ship” effect. Those crappy players will see what you’re doing and they’ll learn better.

On the flip-side, as long as you can maintain at LEAST a 50% win-rate consistently? That’s the mark of a GOOD, competent player in this game. Nobody can say you suck. If you have less than 50%? Well that’s a sign you need to STEP your game up.

In the end, the ONLY way to no longer be at the mercy of the matching systems “balancing” tactics: Is to ONLY EVER play as part of a 5-stack. That’s how peeps FINALLY manage to climb ABOVE 50%.

Rule of thumb: Anyone you see in QM with higher than 50%? That’s isn’t somehow a Godly-skilled player but, rather they play most of the time in a 5-stack of their buds. Afterall, the system can’t force a 50% Win-rate on you, if it has no control over who you’re getting matched with…

Or this game can stop pretending Xul is a Bruiser. Dude is easier to kill then Tracer and he’s supposed to be some amazing front line LMAO

as a solo player with i dont know how many games level 2k+ i have a 50.5% average win.

The way the matches are i believe they “average” out the MMR so you have some people on your team who understand the game mechanics and some people who don’t even know what globes are.

I think this is where it’s not as “fun” or “balanced” because you see some people on your team and you think “how did i get matched up this guy?” but over a series of games this exact new player is also on the enemy team.

So yeah, it’s balanced in a masochistic way.

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Anyone’s gut is wrong if they disagree with him, and on point if they believe what he does, duh!

Or a melee dmg dealer but not enough to be be called it from a balance perspective.
Heroes like Rag,Matlhral, Xul, Thrall are still bruisers in role but they dont get paired up against real bruisers like Sonya/Imp 1 for 1.

They are either paried up against other melees or other semi bruisers to make it fair.

Xul is nowhere a hero that ca frontline effective and if he was paired up against a real bruiser while your team had none then its a sign that MM now just throw whatever it can find together cause playerbase is so low now.

From what matches I can find on your Heroesprofile, none of them are exceptions to the known matching rules.

this sounds like you’re making things up to complain about for the sake of complaining. It wouldn’t be the first time someone hadn’t correctly conveyed what heroes where in which game, but sonya is a ‘real’. bruiser and has matchmaking rules for that while Xul is not.

One of the typical issues with QM complaints is that they rarely, if ever, actually post the entire team composition or a screenshot/replay to show their claim. What has happened, from my experience, is that they either find the game and reveal they didn’t accurately remember the teams, or they posted a 5-game stack, still lost, and are complaining about that. 5 stacks do break QM rules, but that tends to be another detail people won’t convey in their complaints.

I really don’t consider it so much a population issue, so much as it is a skill issue.

For many games, there’s usually a direct correlation between doing one action, and then winning for repeating that. eg. In sportsball the goal is to get more points, so people learn how to get points. In HotS, there isn’t a single indicator for winning behavior, so a lot of players muck-around and complain that something has to be wrong with the game because they’re losing more than they’re winning.

Without examples for directing ‘good’ skills, the average person is just average and looks for anything else to blame instead of learning how to improve: that’s why they’re avereage.

“algorithms” are just a scapegoat: people complaining don’t know what the matching rules actually do, but they want something to blame. That’s why topics like these are rife with examples of people that don’t convey all the details of the match: they don’t know what details matter, so they can’t convey that information. They’re also not looking to increase their knowledge because they’re already convinced that they’re ‘right’ and therefore don’t need to learn anything else. So the much about at the lowest common denominator and get stuck with other players in the same rut, but with a different and ‘incompatible’ knowledge set, so they argue over superstitions.

“Pure logic” doesn’t conclude that someone winning more than 50% of the time as an indication that the match isn’t “fair”. “Fair” is equal chance, not equality of results. “Free will” still exists, so it’s logically possible for the match to have ‘equal skills’ and one side still win more often than not.

According to spazzo, aram does have matching, but it drops rules faster than QM does to prioritize fast matches. So based on time/region, some players will experience better aram games due to it’s mmr working, while other areas will see more of a ‘rainbow’ matching to keep the wait times low.

However, aram is less likely to also reflect ‘skill’ due to the ‘luck’ of select compositions, so their match rating may be very divergent from qm/sl

Sure are a loooot of people in this thread that never played Xul in QM, and boy does it show

Xul has one of the higher win rates in QM, you might want to stop scapegoating that as a reason why you are personally performing poorly with him.

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feel free to provide ‘evidence’ instead of more of the same.

Then again, there’s a good reason why I keep repeating the same stuff on people that keep on repeating their complaints.

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For sure, for sure. I just meant that a low population might be why sometimes one team has a support and the other doesn’t, or a bruiser. Or when one team has 3 tanks and the other just 1 and 4 assassins. Like crazy comps that sometimes break the rules for bruisers/supports (at least 1 healer and tank is still followed no matter what).

At least this isn’t that frequent, unless you play on low population servers or outside of peak hours.

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I have no idea where “Heroes Profile” get their data, but I checked it out and that’s either not me, or it’s cherry picking data. Zag is my 2nd most played hero and she’s not even listed.

Plus I’ve been on a massive losing streak for most of November. Finally, I haven’t played support/healer in QM in years. I purposely leave that quest unfinished.

But thanks for proving my point that all sources except for Blizzard (who are too cowardly/bad to share their data) is nothing but a huge pile of feces.

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