1,000 Loot chests opened

General Discussion
1

I’ve been using a spreadsheet to track the contents of my chests. The shard value of a chest is based off how many shards would be collected assuming every item of the chest was a duplicate, not based upon how many shards it would take to craft the items. The rough idea is that it is the theoretical maximum amount of shards that would be collected assuming that you owned the entire collection and every item was a duplicate. The total collected amount is how many shards I could actually spend. Here’s the results:

Number of Items
Common: 2,293
Rares: 1,202
Epics: 397
Legendaries: 108

Average of:
1.2 rare items per chest
1 epic item per 2.52 chests
1 legendary item per 9.26 chests

Shards
total value: 119,925
total collected: 49,335

average shard value per chest: 120
average collected per chest: 49

Chests
Common: 793
Rare: 173
Epic: 32
Legendary: 2

Number of re-rolls: 847
Average rolls per chest: 1.85 (this includes the initial roll)

Chest with the greatest shard value: 905
It contained 2 legendaries (dark nexus hound mount, wolf & stein greymane), 1 epic, 1 common

Chest with greatest shards collected: 805
It contained 2 duplicate legendaries (goliath D.va, Tyrael’s charger mount), and 2 commons

26 Likes
2

This is kind of cool info. I never thought to track my chests.

3 Likes
3

Wow that is really interesting. I would have expected the epic and legendary drop rates to be much less frequent. Thanks for sharing.

1 Like
4

This is really interesting, thanks for sharing.

5

So you have a roughly 50% chance of getting a rare.
17% of getting an Epic
4.7% chance of a Legendary

6

Did you do any chest rerolls? If so did you notice any difference in original chest value vs reroll value?

1 Like
7

Yeah, but how many of them were rare, epic, or legendary chests?

2 Likes
8

That was going to be my question as well: What were the rarity of the chests? For a study like this you should have ONLY used common chests… or I guess all rare chests if you wanted to see if buying chests was worth it.

9

This was my first question as well.

I appreciate that the OP took the time to collect all that data, but if there’s no information on the distribution of chests the data becomes less meaningful.

10

I generally re-roll chests, generally to the point where the chest value is maximized. Has to be balanced with the gold cost of re-rolls, of course (i.e. the third re-roll is very inefficient).

Number of re-rolls: 847
Average rolls per chest: 1.85 (this includes the initial roll)

Chests
Common: 793
Rare: 173
Epic: 32
Legendary: 2

Chest with the greatest shard value: 905
It contained 2 legendaries (dark nexus hound mount, wolf & stein greymane), 1 epic, 1 common

Chest with greatest shards collected: 805
It contained 2 duplicate legendaries (goliath D.va, Tyrael’s charger mount), and 2 commons

2 Likes
11

Ok, that screws the stats a bit. All chests types are mixed up.

Which means the numbers only apply for that exact distribution of chest types and re-rolls.

Would be interesting to see this for only common chests without re-rolls.

1 Like
12

I mean, that wouldn’t be very realistic anyways as the game awards rare and epic chests at regular intervals. I’m my experience, rare and common chests are functionally the same thing as its extremely rare not to get at least 1 rare item from a common chest. You probably save a little bit of gold on fewer average re-rolls from rare chests, that’s about all.

13

Seeing your Greymane portrait makes me think you were pretty stoked to get the Halloween themed GM skin. I know I like that skin, although I didnt get it in a box.

14

I’ve gotten plenty of common only boxes. Because rare chests are guaranteed a rare, the stats of rares vs number of boxes is no longer representative.

If we group things together because they’re about the same, and then count them together, it defeats the purpose of having those stats in the first place.

2 Likes
15

Cool. That pretty much lines up with my expectations and experience from opening chests, averaging about one re-roll per chest.

I also will only re-roll a chest twice, unless it is a rare or epic chest and I’ve only gotten rare items so far.

Thanks again!

16

If you want to spend the next 2 years gathering data to write a dissertation about common loot chests in HOTS, then be my guest. My goal was not to create a perfect data set, but to get skins. I was roughly interested in how many shards I get per chest on average, to give me an idea of how many chests I would have to collect to craft a particular skin.

1 Like
17

I said it would be interesting to see common loot chest data. I didn’t say “ZOMFG n00b do 1t 0ver!!!”

Maybe someone else will take it up.

I personally always keep chests where there’s 1 rare item I don’t own, or any chest that has 40 shards and up. My one automatic re-roll are all common, all duplicate chests.

18

Heroes of the Storm economy :thinking:

19

Not only that, they’re also rerolling which further skews the droprates.

20

I mean, who cares? Are you seriously never going to reroll chests just to try to empircally measure drops rates? That’s stupid.

Furthermore, I have recorded every chest opening - meaning chest rarity, how many times I re-rolled it, and the quality of items therein. So yes I can sample the commons, rares, epics, and legedary chests individually. I can normalize for re-rolls as well.