For every HS rigging conspiracy, there’s probably at least 20 in MTG Arena. The most common complaints are about lands.
I could find very little YouTube HS rigging content. There’s a plethora for MTGA, and HS is more popular.
Here’s what happens when people actually do the math.
MTG Arena actually adjusts starting hands.
Here’s the test for the 3 card copy draw. You will notice in the comments section that people don’t understand the correct %. They keep using the percentages for a specific card (1.25%) without understanding that there’s multiple cards and not just one specific card. This misunderstanding has led to a lot of rigging claims.
Additionally. Here’s a one hour rigging conspiracy video. I kept waiting for any data, significant evidence, testing. Nothing. It’s one hour that sounds like the typical conspiracy theory in this forum. Why am I condescending? Because it’s you who should be doing this!!! I shouldn’t be watching two hours of MTG content for a reply!
It’s stuff like this that makes me want to make “you shouldn’t even be able to post here unless you have x qualification” type nonsense.
But in all seriousness, here’s a list of mathematics concepts where, if you don’t understand ALL of them, THOROUGHLY, you probably have no business talking about whether the game is rigged or not.
probability - combinations
probability - Pascal’s triangle
statistics - standard deviation / variance
statistics - margin of error (including confidence interval)
This is pretty close to saying, frankly, that if you weren’t at least minoring in math at university at some point in your life, kindly shut up.
One thing that comes to mind with Paper magic is that you get less games in per unit of time. There’s the social aspect of hanging out with people with similar interests so you spend time with friendly chatting. You are out in public, so you hold back and don’t get over emotional about it. Then there’s the time difference in playing through a game. Everything takes longer due to using manual Human Labor vs a computer that does everything instantly. Stuff like Shuffling and Tracking life totals and Game States. You do remember your bad beats of flooding out or drawing no land but they are space out over longer periods of time even if they are happening at the same frequency combined with being in public where you hold your emotions in check. Also its easier to internalize these events because you are acting as the computer in live paper events rather than an unbiased AI.
Comparatively Digital card game you are in private you go through games faster so more frequency for the bad beats and you can table flip without causing a scene. You invest more emotion into games and see the bad beat more often over the same period of play time. IE Say you play 9 Digital games in an hour and have 3 of those being bad beats it sticks with you more than playing 3 paper games over an hour and having 1 bad beat. Even though both instances you have 1 in 3 games being bad beats. You have more emotinal investment over the 3 bad beats you had over an hour in Digital vs the One bad beat an hour you had in Paper
Another good reason to being up MTG is because we don’t give a damn. We don’t have an emotional investment and can look at the issues within MTG more objectively (admittedly not 100% objectively).
Then we can have introspection and figure out who in that community we appear like. Is it the tinfoil guy? Or the guy actually crunching numbers.
I dont know what education you guys have had and which people are around you.
But all of these things and more we did learn here at age 14-18 pre-university already (if you do the highest lvl of “highschool”).
Maybe the world has changed to much. People acting like calculus and pascals triangle and standard deviation are some high lvl math that virtually noone understands.
This condencing elitist nonsense lol. Its laughable and the hallmark of mediocrity.
Haven’t they admitted this, though? I thought for sure they said they adjust lands to smooth out the curve, avoiding bad starting hands or something.
I don’t have the citation handy, but I thought this was proved by the community and then MTG admitted after being pressed, but maybe that’s just the Mandela Effect. Idk.
There’s no universe where HS rigging isn’t discoverd by maths from the widely available data sets. It would have been blown wide open long before now.
That’s why I said “thoroughly.” I was introduced to all of these concepts in high school, but wasn’t taught them thoroughly until college. The high school intro does NOT count. The AP calculus you take in high school is NOT Calculus II in university.
You mean to tell me you didn’t watch 1.5 hours of MTGA content chosen by me?
Honestly you should watch that first video if nothing else. It represents the best of us. Then see how even showing the math perfectly does nothing, his comments section is littered with “totally rigged” comments.
Anyway i am not gonna write down my credentials here just to convince some people who got no clue at all. At one point its to much to deal with i hope you understand.
Back to the topic of this thread
@below:yes i do apollogize for my now edited and also my previous post. I should not have said those things because it also is somewhat condensing (an attitude that i despise). Somehow i got triggered which is pretty rare.
“What a fool believes he sees no wise man has the power to reason away. What seems to be is always better than nothing. There’s nothing at all.”
— Thomas & Patrick Doobie
But the comments on all 3, they’re enlightening. There’s the comments about the 3 copy draw and percentages. He corrected people and they ignored his corrections and kept spamming the 1.25 percent that was incorrect.
All of this talk about the videos reminds me of something I came across long ago about randomization. What I came across was people being shown a series of coin flips and then identifying which of the sets were made up and which were actual results of a series of coin flips. One series was filled with longer streaks of the same results such as 5+ Heads in a row here and 5+ Tails in a row there and the other was more back and forth with steaks topping off at 3 in a row.
Now which series do you think was the actual random streak? The streak that went back and forth with short or no streaks or the one with longer streaks.
Summary
The answer was the series with the longer streaks and people mostly guessed wrong.
It was under 20 minutes. I thought it was going to be hella long just because you said so.
The math in the first section of the second video is wrong. The “57 choose 7” includes the possibility of getting 3 of a kind of a second card in the next 7 cards. This means that some hands with two or three triplets are being counted twice or even thrice — for example, triplets of card A is counted both in the triplets of card A subtotal, AND partially counted again in the triplets of card B subtotal. This is, however, a very minor error, because the chance of getting two or three triplets in ten cards is extremely low. I’m only pointing this out to call attention to how combinations are almost absurdly complicated to calculate accurately, and even people who seem to understand the mathematical concepts involved often get it wrong.
That said, the video is basically empirical evidence supporting that rigging of that sort doesn’t exist, but the comments are entirely the opposite. It’s utterly ridiculous.
