After doing a data analysis on 1200 battlegrounds matches, multiple patterns consistencies in the data have been found, enough not just to suggest this mode is rigged, but to accurately predict the outcome of the match before it even starts.
Gathering data in this mode was initially a major challenge due to the time constraints of each turn, so i ended up taking screenshots of each turn to enter the results into a spreadsheet later. This may seem ridiculous, but i do data analytics for a living, and so this is just part of who i am.
After having discovered the patent owned by activation, i became less interested in the game, and more interested in the challenge of finding the applied usage in hearthstone.
Compared to the previous analysis in arena, the findings in battlegrounds are far more consistent, they were lazy when it came to masking the methodology here.
If i had to guess, the patent was deployed in this mode at the directive of someone in a leadership role in order to provide a level of satisfaction to later be reported to upper management.
In other words, there’s no monetary advantage to rigging battlegrounds, but they did it anyway to make it look like a job well done to the higher corporate heads.
Initial Findings
The rigging effects 3 various factors of the match.
- Who you’ll be matched against
- Card selection
-Minion attack pattern
Similar to the system deployed in arena post 2021, this system utilizes a gambit-like tagging system which “tags” various players based on their current win/loss%
You may experience altered gameplay in none, one, two, or all 3 of the functions listed above, depending on your win/loss%.
Who you’ll be matched against
This tag represents the likelihood of being matched against a favored opponent after turn 1. Each match is divided into 2 groups of 4, you’ll only be matched against the 3 other opponents in your group until the first 2 players are eliminated. Within this group, you’ll be matched against favored/unfavored opponents who are tagged with favored or unfavored versions of gambit #2 and gambit #3 based on your win/loss%
Card selection
This ones straightforward and easy to identify as an all or nothing tag. A big giveaway were the few instances of a 3-of-a-kind appearing upon refresh, which led to a game of generally favorable matches within the players current tavern tier.
Favored=multiple matches and matching minion types of your current tavern tier
Unfavored = nearly zero matches of your current tavern tier, most if not all matches will be of a lower tavern tier only
Minion attack pattern
This was the final tag to be identified and the most difficult to verify. The initial finding occurred when comparing the attack patterns in games with an avenge minion present. But it doesn’t stop there. The favored side of this gambit will also find that their minions are mathamatically sound in their attack patterns, meaning that 40/1 minion won’t be finished off by a 1/1 anytime soon, and will instead be more likely to clash with a healthier minion E.G 40/40.
As for how these tags are determined based on win/loss%, that’s the special secret sauce i’ll keep to myself, for now.
