Everyone has noticed it. It’s just that some people of the forum has the dumbs and can’t see the obvious. While others have their head stuck somewhere which makes them blind. Then there are those whose livelihood depends on this and they’d do everything in their power to defend it.
Point is… you’re wasting your breath.
You do it as well,same as everyone. You claim there is plenty of raw data to proof,i claim there is not plenty of raw data to proof. If there is plenty raw data,then where can I find this data?
I specifically listed some of the data that I would need to make a claim about draw rates being “rigged” and not even all of the data,just a very small and very basic amount of data that could show this. BUT THIS DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE.
And if it is available,then show me where.
Data about winrate kept on mulligan is no use for this,nor is winrate data or whatever data that the data site tracks.
There is millions of recorded games and a lot of data from those games in data bases,but not the data that I would need. It isn’t extraordinary data that I ask for,just a very simple mulligan and average turn drawn data.
“Unfortunately they aren’t interested in proving it for anyone but themselves”
I am very interested in this by now lol,and I do have the statistical know how. What I do not have is the data,despite claims that this data is there. Well then show me where the data is or admit that the data needed to prove this indeed is not there on public forums. That’s the whole point and it completely invalidates the main argument which is:
There is enough data so someone would have proved this and no one did so its not true.
There isn’t enough data or the right data publicly available,i not gonna repeat it again. If you cant see this then I don’t know what to say anymore.
Btw you are right,i mostly want to prove this for myself. I have a suspicion but I want prove. I don’t even care how others see this,i am not on a mission to convince everyone they are wrong and I am right. I honestly don’t care for that,all I want to know is how this works in the game.
Today I really can’t help but shout “RIGGED” at my monitor a lot.
I get the SAME freaking cards out of “add random cards to your hand” every time. I have seen Boomship and Cloning Gallery in every second match today out of 10 matches I have played (4 Boomships/ 6 Galleries).
If it is so sophisticated that a data analysis can’t detect it then people certainly aren’t detecting it with their naked eye lol.
So if we want numbers n such, all you need to do is look at HSReplay and see that in Highlander Hunter, Shimmerfly has an average turn played of 4.4 and an elaverage turns held of 0.5. Clearly, the card isn’t always given to a player on turn 1.
The term “raw data” refers to the simplest unaltered aspect of an experiment that is collected. In this case I’m referring to the 7 million+ games played and recorded every week on HsReplay. For niche and specific elements of gameplay (for example, % of games where something is/n’t drawn) the person doign the analysis would have to go through 1000+ games on their own and get the data themselves.
True. This is why I didn’t specify those stats when I brought it up in my last post.
Average turn drawn can already be extrapolated from the stats available on HSReplay (take average turn played and subtract average turns held). Mulligan rate is something that you can tabulate by looking at a randomly selected number of games played by a specific deck, as I mentioned above.
I’m reasonably certain this entire misunderstanding is founded on the fact that we’re using the term “data” differently. When I say “data” what I’m referring to is the millions of recorded games available on sites like HSReplay. Anyone what wants to prove the game is rigged can take a fixed portion of these games, record what did/did not happen inside of them, then do a statistical analysis based on their findings. The data you’re asking for requires a vast majority of the legwork for such an analysis to already be done.
That isn’t what I’m saying though - already went through this with Dsh. My entire argument so far has been that the logic that led people like Bobsydie and Wildwolf to the conclusion that the game is rigged is inherently flawed, and while the “no one has proved this” argument isn’t strong enough to demonstrate that the game ISN’T rigged, it’s still enough to place the burden of proof on people who believe the game IS rigged.
I’ll gladly admit to this: Things like “draw rate after mulliganing x, y, or z cards” aren’t stats that are generally/publicly available on most sites. In this sense, there aren’t enough of the already-processed games and statistics to definitively demonstrate whether the game is rigged or not. My point so far has been that the burden of proof is on people who believe the game is rigged, and that burden of proof has not been satisfied. Until then, the status quo will continue to be the simplest one: The game isn’t rigged.
Godspeed lol, it’ll be a long journey.
This is a noble endeavor. I play a lot of physical card games, and there is a German poker game where you can be accused of “over shuffling” believe it or not 
the way you deal is also special to try and give “groupings” of cards that accumulate from the previous round. Card games are brutal because of the non determinism, hearthstone is no exception. Best of luck. You may even uncover bugs like the famous nat pagle draw bug 
If you only need a very small very basic amount of data then just record your own games with Hearthstone Deck tracker for a like a month and analyze that data.
Add yet again Pilfer gives me Boomship … guys seriously, what the hell are you defending this system for? xDDD You can’t tell me you don’t see the same cards out of random cards all the time …
I’ve literally never gotten Boomship from Pilfer, though.
I’ve rolled two dice only to get a total of 5 four times more than 7, even though 7 is the more likely total, over the course of a Catan game. Rigged? Or just one of many legal outcomes of a non deterministic event?
There are hundreds of thousands of people playing this game, if you got everyone to flip a coin 10 times hundreds of people would be getting all heads or all tails. And people play this game all day… getting a statistically unlikely outcome does not inherently breach the expectations of probability schwifty.
Not Boomship but I bet that you see the same cards over and over if you’re honest with yourself 
See, the thing is, you’re complaining about getting the same cards you get from generated cards. The OP is complaining that people draw the same cards at predetermined turns. Those are two different things. While it is possible the randomnizer for generated cards is (by lack of better term) biased (which is something completely different to figure out), the draw randomizer isn’t rigged.
For every perfect turn two card played on turn two, there are dozens of times people draw a useless card.
Oh yeah, true ^^
Nah, the draw also isn’t biased from my experience. Drew all cards from all decks in totally random order.
The card generation on the other hand … phew, that is total bs 
As we speak I got Boomship for the 6th time today. Galleries is still at 6 as well and Starfire is close with 4 “random” draws).
Not from the replay data would be more precise.
There is also always the possibility of being right with the wrong reasons. As such I would still discount the “would have been found out already” argument.
I would argue that if people haven’t found it yet then even if it does exist it is so close to true random that it doesn’t matter.
They could always introduce something in the future, so all the years of not finding it would mean nothing.
That’s why I always encourage people to look for evidence — because it is important that we remain vigilant. I just have zero interest in worthless anecdotes and conspiracy theories that presuppose their own validity.
If the government kills one person each year arbitrarily it also doesn’t affect you statistically. Does it matter?
Edit: better example: Statistically it doesn’t matter to treat xxx disease. Should we research it?
Very much this. Every single one of these “rigged” threads have been nothing but evidence-free drivel from people on a tilt. There’s no truth to any of it.
That’s a negative, Ghostrider.