A lot if decks have a 5 percent difference in winrate between going first and second, anyone have suggestions on how to get this percentage closer?
Only one i can think if is to get rid of the coin and give the second player a mana crystal to start
Sometimes it’s an advantage though. E.g. I’m pretty sure the typical handbuff paladin preferred to go 2nd, because it preferred having more minions in hand to buff than a super fast curve …usually.
It’s a very complex subject to be sure though, so nobody can answer it by just guessing and I doubt it even has an answer without some deeply complex statistical analysis.
I did think like you, but the fact is going first always bring higher winrate. Even with decks prefer more card, or the coin (like combo rogue in the past, or handbuff pally), it’s still true.
About OP, I think the effective way to bring it closer is adding more coin for the player who goes second at start of turn 1 (like now), turn 4 and turn 9. So they have more room for swing.
If you give him an extra mana crystal, so he become the first and the other become second, things don’t change at all. (just a free and cheap ramp)
Another example of preferring to go 2nd (potentially), might be all those decks that required having coins in hand, e.g. Wishing Well rogue or Big Spell Mage or Lynessa OTK Paladin.
E.g. I had some experience with Lynessa OTK paladin and that deck rarely cared to have 1 more round. It mainly cared to have coins and other enabler cards.
is that true? i neverthought anything of it other than maybe doing someting cheesy with the coin as a rogue
I don’t know but do you have any data record to prove it?
I did think like you, but in fact my own record did not say the same.
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Not the same in that the first player still gets a chance to play a minion first, get board initiative first which is a big big deal. Maybe also take away the extra card the person going second gets since he starts at two mana
The win differential will naturally depend on multiple factors:
- sample size (the higher, the lower the differential),
- meta (tempo prefers going 1st, reactive control prefers going 2nd, some aggro decks prefer going 2nd - when compared to others, obviously, no decks actually prefer going 2nd, that’s a myth),
- relationship between the deck and the meta (when’s the deck’s peak power, and when’s the average meta deck’s peak power? Early > Mid > Late)
So I’d say, the sample size is too low AND we are in a control meta AND you’re talking about a tempo deck
Obviously, it’s ridiculous to attempt to predict the exact example. The differences can be very high.
Take my Elemental mage, for example. In a sample of 107 games, I won 63% going 1st and 43% going 2nd. That’s 20%, lol
Weapon rogue’s diff is 17% (74% vs 57% in 187 games)
Ahemmm sample size on the weapon rogue? And what were the splits,
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Ahh, good question! Thank you for asking!
I was looking at the wrong sample of 37 lowrolls
74% vs 57%, so 17% differental in 187 games on weapon Rogue. Editing the previous post
JAlex was showing a 64/34 split on going first/second with protoss rogue over almost 200 games as well.
It’s a bit of an extreme point in some spots.
Idk what to say on that
That’s a non-deck basically, so xD
Yeah, no, I don’t know. It seems everything points to one simple conclusion: the game is increasingly favoring 1st mover, probably because of the powercreep making it harder to regain lost tempo (games are too short, removal too lacking)
You can’t prove that just with data. You need a very complex statistical analysis after you have the data and I doubt any official or third party does such high level analyses in this game (and I include VS in that group). I was mainly throwing ideas there that have a high potential to be true.
PS In the case of Lynessa OTK paladin I’m almost certain, because that deck cared way too much to have coins and it really didn’t bother too much for the opponent to have 1 extra round especially if the opponent was not super-aggro (most opponents).
for aggro or tempo deck it does matter particularly deck without comeback mechanics (lack of efficient removals) but for control or combo deck the coin could sometimes pay off for tempo swing in the future turns.
this is why i really love spamming zerg discover hunter this season, going first or second doesn’t really matter that much.