This comment says you have zero understanding of what I’m talking about and that’s a you issue at this point.
Take a stats class or ten. Learn something.
But for starters… there’s only 366 game in D4-1 in the rogue category for the calculations. By their own numbers:
That
366 could be the play of three total players and just three players. That’s the point about sample size can be a HUGE factor.
It totally is, and you don’t even understand how. That’s the point.
No, they must because as the pool of total players dwindles, the likelihood that you’re actually recording both sides of the same game in your data increases. How many top 1k players do you legitimately think don’t use trackers? More than half? Less?
But even beyond that, it’s not a case for every deck because the meta changes.
Winrates are a snap shot of a specific set of parameters and are only relevant to the sample you took them from. They don’t generalize and you know this because you frequently remind people how bad the bronze data from HSReplay is everywhere that isn’t bronze.
You’re trying to generalize them to a different population, and it doesn’t work with any real validity because it’s just you playing with numbers.
This was your premise.
And that’s just not the case and can’t be determined from your numbers.