Summary of yesterday's VS podcast

These are done courtesy of EvilDave219 on the CompetitiveHS Reddit, I’m just reposting them here. Everything in the summary from this sentance onward is their wording.

As always, glad to do these summaries, but a summary won’t be able to cover everything and can miss nuances, so I highly recommend listening to their podcast as well. Next VS Report should be out on Thursday, January 6th, with the next podcast being out sometime next weekend.

General - The most recent meta report took a lot of work because there were so many decks. We’re in a very diverse meta right now primarily because Team 5 changed their design philosophy and by opening up new card draw options to most classes, and no longer printing pack filler. ZachO thinks there can be even more diversity if they open up additional card draw options to Warrior, or late game lethality to Priest. “Kibler said the meta is solid, we can move on guys! If Kibler is happy, I’m happy.” They can still make some additional balance changes, but with some classes having 5+ viable decks, there’s not a lack of diverse options to choose to play from. This is probably the best December patch they’ve ever released when you look at issues with Galakrond, Evolve Shaman, and Rastakhan metas over the past few years. Both Hat and ZachO think this is the best meta since Scholomance and may go down as an all time great meta.

Rogue - With Thief Rogue’s popularity, you can almost assume that a Priest or Warrior opponent at high legend right now is presumably a Thief Rogue player. Clear best deck in the game right now, and will likely dictate the format. No deck in the format seizes early game board initiative better than Thief Rogue. They point out that one of the deck’s strengths is the fact that it doesn’t have to spend much mana on most of its cards - the vast majority of the deck has cards you’re playing for 2 mana or less. Deck has a strong matchup spread, but not unbeatable. Decks with strong defensive tools and removal options can deal with the deck. Decks like Fel Demon Hunter, Handlock, and Libram Paladin are favored in the matchup, and if more people play these types of decks, Thief Rogue’s winrate may drop. Thief Rogue is likely the only Rogue deck where Shadowcrafter Scabbs isn’t the best card in the deck due to how strong early Gnolls are. While Gnoll may be a target for future nerfs (and both point out Gnoll is nowhere near as highrolly as things like Drek’Thar or Incanter’s Flow), both ZachO and Hat seem to be a fan of Thief Rogue as the number 1 deck in the format since it does promote more defensive oriented decks to be in the meta to counter it, and helps slow down the meta. “It’s an honest Hearthstone deck…that doesn’t spend its mana on cards.” It’s a fun deck! Reconnaissance gives the deck the Galakrond/Descent of Dragons era feel to it that makes every game feel different with some of the outcomes you can pull, but it’s a 1 for 1 card without being near as offensive as Galakrond Rogue was with all their card discovery. Both Hat and ZachO are big fans of these types of discovery cards. Prep very strong in the deck, especially in combination with Reconnaissance and Swindle. Quest Rogue still strong, just being overshadowed right now. Does have a different matchup spread than Thief Rogue. It’s much stronger against Paladin due to their sap gizmo and single target removal. It is a slower deck than Thief Rogue, so struggles more against aggression than Thief Rogue does. Poison Rogue looks very good, clear tier 1, strongest it has ever been. In previous metas Poison Rogue only looked good at top Legend due to the field - this is the first time Poison Rogue looks like it performing at all rank brackets. Scabbs is absolutely busted in this deck in combination with Cloak of Shadows. You have so much card draw you can consistently find Scabbs. Additionally, there’s so much burst damage from hand you don’t even have to rely on the weapon to close out games. Garrotte Rogue has dropped significantly in play, and while it’s still a good deck, it feels like there’s not a reason right now to run it over Poison Rogue. Secret Thief Rogue and Cute Thief Rogue are just inferior versions of Thief Rogue - no reason to play them over Thief.

Mage - ZachO feels justified in worrying about Mozaki Mage. While players will always counter it if it becomes prevalent, it still leads to a very polarizing experience where the only way to beat the deck is by killing it by turn 6-7. They expect the deck to get nerfed, because if Poison Rogue wasn’t around, it’d be a Tier 1 deck. For Wildfire Mage, the Multicaster build looks like the cleanest way to go. While the deck isn’t top tier by any means, its stats look worse than they actually are since so many lists being run aren’t refined. A couple more new cards and/or buffs could push the archetype into being even more competitive. People running the higher curve lists should run the VS list since unoptimized versions of the higher curve lists seem like they get punished more in their performance. ZachO points out that Rune of the Archmage is performing better than Puzzle Box ever did during its heyday.

Shaman - There were 7 Shaman deck lists in the most recent VS Report. For Freeze Shaman, deck really needs 2 cards for the final 2 slots that are better than Serpentshine Portal. Bolnar Shaman looks like the best Shaman deck at higher levels of play. Stronger defensively than Freeze Shaman, and one of the better answers to Thief Rogue in the format. Burn Shaman hype looks like it has somewhat died out. Maybe Brukan is worth running in the deck? Elemental and Quest Shaman very good, just old decks that people are less likely to play. “Quest Shaman is so much more fun with card draw”. ZachO points to Quest Shaman as a big reason why he’s such a big advocate for card draw with Multicaster. Evolve Shaman was initially somewhat of a meme, and while it’s not near as strong as Evolve Shaman last year, it looks decent. A lot of decks cannot deal with evolved boards. Build is still preliminary, may be underexplored options in the deck. ZachO goes on a rant about how Quest Shaman and Bolner Shaman are clearly control decks the same way someone will passionately say that Die Hard is a Christmas movie (which it absolutely is).

Hunter - Turns out, Iron Deep Trogg is the best mulligan WR% card in Face Hunter post nerfs! Team 5 was correct in going ahead and nerfing Trogg. The card is still extremely powerful turn 1, to the point they dropped Arcane Anomaly for True Aim Crescent in the most recent VS report build. ZachO predicts Face Hunter will drop off from Tier 1 at top Legend over the next week due to its bad matchup into both Thief Rogue and Fel Demon Hunter. Big Beast Hunter looks good, but both ZachO and Hat are sad that Owl is cut from their most recent list. Very underrated, a competitive viable alternative to Face Hunter. Quest Hunter - Bunker is probably bait, you’re not spending mana in your early turns to progress the quest. You run secrets only for fodder for Spring the Trap. Running Tavish is fine in the deck, in some matchups getting 0 mana Animal Companions is a winning line. Secret Hunter is a deck that likely won’t get better for good reason, it’s too highrolly with Drek’Thar.

Druid - Celestial Alignment nerf opened up so much design space in Druid. Quest Druid looks like bait, ignore Habugabu hitting rank 1 Legend with the deck. Habu’s list doesn’t run Overgrowth, which the deck does want to run. Samuro could be good in the deck to help deal with minion pressure - they’ll look at the data next week. They point out that some of the deck’s current power comes from a bug with Guff, where if you play a card that gains you attack and then play Guff, the game will give you double quest progression (Gallon confirmed this will be fixed). Ramping Druid decks - you can either go the Glowfly/Arbor Up route that’s spell heavy, or the Old God variant. Malygos looks like bait in the spell heavy deck, you don’t normally want to run Fungal Fortunes and Malygos in the same deck. Abominable Lieutenant looks like its worth running in the Old God variant, ZachO calls it the Ogremancer of the expansion in terms of being a viable card that no one thought would be good. Both ramp decks look Tier 2. Clown Druid underrated, another Tier 2 deck. Vandarr build an alternative you can run, looks strong. Hat points to a line of play where you play Nature Studies on 1, Overgrowth on 3, and then Guff + Hero Power on 4, which turns Guff’s battlecry into a Shield Block + Overgrowth. The Kibler C’Thun ramping build looks like bait. Aggressive Druid decks may be even stronger. Trogg very good in Taunt build, Taunt Druid w/Drek’Thar is Tier 1. Beast Druid - if you want to have more game against Rogue, then Matriarch helps a lot with the matchup. Might be better than Taunt Druid. Thorngrowth Sentries are better in the deck than Pack Mule is, the card gives you two ticks towards Matriarch for 2 mana. Beast Druid doesn’t have the explosive openings that Taunt Druid can have, but its midgame is a lot stronger. Drek’Thar Druid with Glowfly + Arbor Up looks like it could be a potential Tier 2 deck.

Demon Hunter - both Hat and ZachO call Fel DH the meta breaker of next week. It beats Thief Rogue and Face Hunter. Adding Magtheradon helps with the Paladin and Quest Warrior matchups, and is a win condition by itself. Apparently everyone forgot Magtheradon was previously a top 3 card in the deck. Brute DH feels like it’s close to being competitive, but still struggles against board heavy matchups. Looks close to Tier 2. Deathrattle DH good, just low interest in the archetype.

Paladin - They originally thought last week that Paladin would want to look at a 1 drop alternative to Trogg in Libram, but now it looks like the class is better off aiming for the late game with buffing a Mr. Smite after playing Cariel hero. Murgur looks like a better card than Mr. Smite in the deck though. Hat says the experience of playing against Cariel feels similar to playing against Barrens Priest where you know you’re eventually going to lose, but the game will get dragged out. ZachO likens it closer to Dr. Boom Control Warrior. Decks that have natural tradeable synergy can natively run Viper, but other decks in general can’t afford to use a deckslot on Viper to counter Cariel. Libram actually looks a little underrated at higher levels of play, even though its winrate drops off compared to lower ranks. Has strong matchups against Face Hunter and Thief Rogue. Buff Paladin is okay, just no compelling reason to play it over Libram.

Warlock - Handlock is the top counter to Thief Rogue, so it will definitely stay relevant in the meta. Some people are still not running 2 Soul Rends, which is a big mistake. Soul Rend can almost win you the game on the spot if Thief Rogue loads up an early board. Hat points out Handlock is probably the most Scabbs resistent deck in the format because your minions will either cost next to nothing, or they have strong battlecries like Bristleback. ZachO points out that Demon Seed Tamsin win condition is nearly irrelevant now, to the point that Fel DH with the expendable combo and Magtheradon means you’ll rarely have games go late enough to a fatigue win condition. Handlock matchup against Face Hunter does not look that bad if you’re running 2x Soul Rend with 2x Full Blown Evil to prevent any sort of board development.

Warrior - Quest Warrior is unprecedented at how much it dips in performance at higher levels because the deck is so linear and telegraphs all of its plays. ZachO does point out that how you’re individually performing against Quest Warrior is an indication on how much you’re improving at the game. One of the harder skills in Hearthstone is making the best plays against your opponents expected plays, and not just the best plays for your own deck. This skill starts to really ramp up at Top Legend, and this explains why the deck drops off at those rates. Quest Warrior just curves out with Pirates every turn, they can’t ever deviate from that gameplan. What good players should do is be in a position where they exploit all the telegraphed plays of Quest Warrior before Juggernaut comes down. Decks with favorable matchups will outpace the Warrior and put them into a spot where they have to play Juggernaut behind on board. That’s not to say Team 5 won’t make adjustments to the deck based on its performance at lower ranks, but learning how to play against Quest Warrior is a good learning tool to getting better at Hearthstone. ZachO reiterates that if Control Warrior had better draw options, it’d be viable.

Priest - Priest is actually good? ZachO says Rally Miracle Priest is a better deck at Top Legend than Quest Warrior. The Malygos build is apparently dragging down the winrate, and that deck runs into card generation issues when your opponent can answer your one big blowup turn. Rally build gives you multiple turns to go off, plus you can put Drek’Thar in it. ZachO says he’s just now noticing in the data that Shadow Priest is looking decent, around the Tier 2/Tier 3 level. He mentions that the builds for Shadow Priest right now look suboptimal, so having a better build will help it out. Apparently people are still playing Illucia in the deck, and Hat points out the only Shadow Priest deck that’s showing up on HSReplay still shows Illucia, so that might be why. ZachO says you probably want to run Najak Hexxen in Shadow Priest, it looks like a strong card in the deck.

Podcast:
https://www.vicioussyndicate.com/vs-data-reaper-podcast-episode-73/

4 Likes

I actually think Quest Rogue will do better because theif Rogue exists lol. You kinda just clean up all the control trying to counter Theif Rogue… just don’t get matched into Theif Rogue itself and you’ll be fine xD

yea, apart from mage and priest everything is great.
Just makes it somewhat hard to find a deck that actually beats enough of the other 40 decks you run into, it´s really easier in a narrow meta.

Still not buying the Thief Rogue hype, it´s handlock matchup is really bad and it´s not like too many other decks are holding handlock down, it´ll come back once people have enough of the diversity, especially if mozaki gets killed before she rotates.

I kinda surprised they did not nerf mozaki mage during past patch actually.

Also they should be more open to early rotation Just because the main card has literally less than 3 months left.

If you not want people to play something stop pretending you’re trying to balance that “thing”.
Everyone gonna be satisfied with their refunds and move on.

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Or only bad players play it because it is boring and/or it’s the deck they came with so they’re dancing with it.

I don’t see how you play around a deck that’s basically “did I draw my good curve” beyond the really, really basic stuff.

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I feel like a lot of people who play it aren’t necessarily bad. They just like the raw consistency of the deck. PW strat is to just threat check and hope more often than not that your opponent runs out of answers before you run out of pirates. I don’t like PW mind you, just trying to see it from the other sides perspective. I’d rather play a deck with a higher skill ceiling myself, but everybody has their own strategy.

I just don’t see how skill enters into how you play around such a linear deck. You either have the counters or you don’t. And it’s pretty obvious either way so I don’t think there’s a ton of 4d chess going on there where grandmaster level people are going to be better than diamond players.

If anyone has examples or data showing why I’m wrong, I’m happy to hear it.

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Oh I agree with you. I’m just saying people probably play it because they expect the curve to be more consistent than their opponents is all

Exactly what I said like 2 weeks ago. Soul Rend is 100% the right card. The list that VS gives is THE list to go by. It’s crazy good.

My guess is that it’s easier to beat if your deck has excellent curve and you know how to play that curve. If you’re losing to Quest Warrior because you homebrew, then it’s because your curve is way off. You really have to be curve heavy in the 1-3 mana range or be able to play minions for 1-3 mana from discounts (much like Handlock does)

If you’re playing a meta deck, and that meta deck loses to Quest Warrior normally, you can’t “git gud”. Your deck is just likely going to lose.

I think part of the problem with them looking at Quest Warrior is at High Legend. Even though Quest Warrior beats Thief Rogue according to the data, a High Legend player playing Thief Rogue is likely 10x better than someone at Gold playing Thief Rogue. So, at higher ranks, they beat Quest Warrior more often. But this only pertains to decks that are skill heavy.

Non-skill heavy decks (Like Face Hunter) will lose to Pirate Warrior at almost any rank. It doesn’t matter if you’re a High Legend or Gold player - the way you play Face Hunter is almost always the same. So the data might be a bit skewed at 1kLegend, because people at 1KLegend generally play more skill-heavy decks. And that makes perfect sense…after all, even though Quest Warrior and Face Hunter and Libram Paladin were CLEARLY dominant decks, almost no one brought them to worlds. Instead they brought skill heavier decks like Garrote Rogue and Lifesteal Demon Hunter - decks that people aren’t really playing in Bronze and Gold because it’s much easier to just rank up with easier decks like…Quest Warrior and Face Hunter.

Making a mistake while playing Garrote Rogue and Lifesteal Demon Hunter will almost certainly cost you the game. Making a mistake with Quest Warrior or Face Hunter won’t be as punishing.

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That’s reductionism. A part of being a good player is understanding how and what with you can counter your opponent.

I don’t think there’s a ton of 4d chess going on there where grandmaster level people are going to be better than diamond players.

Then explain the WR discrepancy. Your “only bad players play it” is a bad argument since it somehow assumes that legend players magically become worse when they start playing QW.

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If mage isn’t good why is nearly everyone playing it? Literally 2/3 of my games this morning are vs mage, and that is guaranteed nerf.

Also, they need to stop discounting spells as a plan for classes. All classes, but specifically mage. Seems like all they can figure out is ooh, how about we just cheat some more mana and that is half the reason people hate to play against it. Nothing like unstoppable, lethal face damage from hand for three mana, hur dur.

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The legend population isn’t a static set of good players. I’m saying that, as a refined deck during a new expansion, QW players surged to legend early, where the bad players failed to adapt and switch decks once the meta there became hostile to it. Also, since it is so boring, good legend players who had been there before stopped playing it the second it was a liability. So the population of legend players playing QW is people stubbornly persisting with the deck after reaching legend with it. I’m assuming those are bad players.

Though looking at the data, it really doesn’t fall off much between low diamond and legend generally. Maybe it’s just sampling error in high legend then?

Your and VS explanation is that top 1k legend compared with all legend players are able to produce a 7 point swing in win rate. That’s massive. And I’m not saying it’s wrong, I just want to understand it better, cause that doesn’t fit my intuition (which is, of course, fallible).

Is a much more stable group than you are giving it credit for being.

The majority of top 1k is a pretty stable set of good players, though.

And the preference is for high skill cap, flexible decks at that level, most of which have the tools to stop pirate warrior.

that’s is true.

when you play as quest warrior, your decisions dont matter. they are premade for you. it really is like the meme “50% chance: you either win, or you lose!”

most competitive decks at those ranks want to have outs for different occasions, because this is how you climb, by beating the odds/being a better player, quest warrior doesnt allow for that.

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I understand that, but it is a small group where small, idiosyncratic fluctuations have outsized impacts. And it must be unstable on its bottom edge, right?

So it’s just a difference in deck prevalence in the top1k legend? That would make sense, but that’s just a manifestation of micrometa in a small population. It isn’t due to a vast difference in skill difference between top1k and regular legend players, that allow top1k to better counter qw. They’re just playing different decks (I.e. you have counters or you don’t)

Also, everything you just said kind of suggests that someone that would keep playing pirate warrior at high legend would be a bad player, right?

You seem like you are fishing for evidence to support your conclusion rather than drawing conclusions from the evidence.

Playing a deck doesn’t make someone good or bad.

The same decks at low and high legend have different win rates when piloted by different players.

One can’t make judgements about players based on only deck choice in a vacuum.

What does this expression mean?

This more than any other VS report sounds like they are playing an entirely different game from what I played this past month. It feels like there’s 1 completely new deck in this meta (thief rogue) and two half new decks that use a large part of the shell of old decks but throw in a package of AV cards (freeze elemental shaman and beast aggro druid).

The disregard they seem to have for anything other than the top 1000 legend bracket is really telling. I like hat, he’s funny, friendly, smart, and interesting so I don’t wanna slag off on this report so much but it’s really hard to see how anyone can see this meta as anything other than month 5 of UIS.

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For now they could Go buffing priest , non Quest Warriors and maybe big Hunter.

It would be Far better than any nerf for real.

Honestly I am so sick of playing in a meta that consists of libram paladin, face hunter, quest pirate warrior, and quest handlock with only 1 real new deck for another 3-4 months.

Of those decks the only one I don’t mind being around still is face hunter because I’ve basically just accepted that it will be a part of the meta in some form forever. The rest of the meta are decks that I was bored playing with and against by mid october. I’d much rather see major nerfs to the lot of the current decks so something else can define the meta rather than the UIS garbage decks

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