Target shows mechs on the warband. The options are:
-micro machine
-pup bot
The opponent did tie the first round against togwaggle which did show 1 elemental.
If togwaggle had the option between sellemental and reroll elemental he would pick sellemental as it is slightly more flexible. The card that ties against sellemental is micro machine. So micro machine is slightly more likely based on logical deduction.
Yet it was pup bot.
Did i miss something here or does he just screw you over on turn 2 at times?
Had this situation happen twice already on turn two in what must have been maybe 10 games with holmes.
pup bot ties with the 1/4 tavern elemental as well. Probably just bad luck. Sometimes Holmes gives you different tribal options which makes the guess obvious sometimes its really a coinflip.
Yes pup bot ties with 1/4 elemental. But it does win against sellemental.
Micro mummy does lose against the 1/4 elemental and ties against sellemental.
Its a very binary situation. The question comes down to: Is the first opponent of my target more likely to have sellemental or the 1/4 elemental.
This is not a 50/50,because if both where in the tavern heistbaron would have bought the sellemental. This makes sellemental slightly more likely.
Its supposed to be a cool mechanic where you can make an educated guess. Which my guess was based on the reasoning above (but feel free to have a different opinion and explain why pup bot is the logical pick,or even a 50/50).
And then he screws you over by making the choice such that the most likely pick is also the wrong pick.
Like if it was a 50/50 ok. (though he gives me 50/50 on turn 2 like 20% of the time which seems a high percentage based on what i see happening elsewhere).
But ok 50/50 i could live with. But making the most likely pick the wrong pick,and actually screwing you over for making the logical choice,ya thats lame.
Maybe holmes would have bought the reroll elemental on t2,he is new to the game so maybe he still has to learn. I hope he learns fast and stop giving those options on turn 2 where the most logical pick is also the wrong pick.
There are heroes that give you free gold (or slightly more) or equivalent advantage, and without a condition. Holmes’ only advantage is that you can save that gold. Is that enough to offset the chance to get nothing?
That sometimes it is random i can understand. Like when i had to gamble what togwaggle had on 6 gold which is virtually 100% random. Even here you can make an educated guess as lower tier minions are more likely then higher tier minions , but on 6 gold and in this situation i can understand that the choice can be such that the most logical pick is also the wrong pick.
But to have the most logical pick be the wrong pick,on turn 2 already,that imo defies the purpose of the mechanic. Which as developers said,is supposed to be rather consistent if you make the right deductions.
Anyway,it doesnt make or break the game for me but this i found quiet disapointing.
It’s both more probable that the opponent had sellemental and the other player had pup bot (better than micro mummy), since they were the best choices.
Since you know they tied, you had to choose which player got lucky.
It was basically a 50/50 based on what you felt was correct
It’s boring, but probably powerful, since you can level up to tier 3 just by guessing correct one time in the first two turns.
You never lose gold, unlike with barov, but you also gain less
This is actually a good argument i have to admit. I did consider only one side of the equation. I have to think a bit about this lol.
The options are:
Pup bot vs reroll elemental
micro mummy vs sellemental
I think it is very close in this patch,maybe even favor micro, but i will concede that if both pup and micro is in the shop pup is probably more likely still (if only because pup has been the autopick for a while and most players would probably still pick pup).
The value of micro did increase significantly with this patch because it summons a minion which can help quests and because mechs are a quiet decent midgame option.
This would make it a 50/50 indeed. Though i can then argue:heistbaron will always buy sellemental no matter what while there might be situations where a player would pick micro mummy over pup bot. For example a shop with 2xmicro and 1 pup bot. He might go for double micro and hope for a token on turn 3 to level or he might be eco hero and do it naturally (i forgot what hero it was).
(and to consider the other side,going for a pup bot pair is less likely i think as it is not a particulary good pair).
It is still very slightly more likely to be sellemental imo but i have to admit that this is such a fringe case that it can be discarded.
Anyway:ty for pointing out what i did miss that was definitely helpful.
I like the mechanic and making such deductions,its quiet interesting to try figure it out in detail. Which is why i was a bit disapointed and made this post.
But you are correct,it is not unreasonable to asume this is indeed a 50/50 ty.
More likely it’s the Sellemental. Tokens are almost always the turn 1 pick, especially if they level turn 2.
Also most will pick a different 1/4 over the Elemental 1/4 (The Dragon and Murloc are generally better), so you wouldn’t get that choice. That’s how I’d view it.