Two things lead to a phenomenom I call “Mulligan meta”:
a) early game board control seems to be more important than ever before, which includes last summer when hyper-aggro was dominant. This is because unlike then, we’re lacking removals and comeback mechanisms as its early in the rotation.
and
b) Meta highly unstable, changing, due to no single decks having dominance on the ladder, due to extreme balance and lack of synergy in decks.
a) + b) lead to a phenomenom where how you do your mulligan can make or break a game, and one of the direct results of such a meta is at the same time the proof of the concept:
If a class has 1 strong deck on the ladder, it significantly raises the chance that at least 1 other deck of the same class will become strong as a consequence of people doing wrong mulligan against them.
That’s why we continually see more than 2 decks of the same class in top decks/meta tab on hsguru, and why those seem to appear and disappear suddenly.
Remember DK, anyone? Where are those decks now? What about hunter? I’m afraid it’s at least 2 or none, because if you know exactly what you’re up against, you win.
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Dude, sorry if this seems rude… but what honestly are you talking about?
There’s 4 dk decks in the meta with above a 50% wr.
Hunter has 3
Ah yes.
Don’t worry about it, we’re not playing the same game, apparently.
Cognitive bias is a systematic thought process caused by the tendency of the human brain to simplify information processing through a filter of personal experience and preferences. The filtering process is a coping mechanism that enables the brain to prioritize and process large amounts of information quickly.
Uh thats how its been throughout hearthstone history… play midrange vs something like old school treant druid and if you drew any of your top end you were dead.
If anything this is one of the most forgiving games right now of a bad mulligan… with all the tutor cards/relatively benign early game damage as long as you top deck a tutor card on curve you’re not completely out of it. Go play a game like MTG arena where the mulligan is literally the game.
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Not only that but we also see this on really strong early game cards that tend to form a shell where the decks aim for the same early game with a really diferrent lategame plan.
Classic druid being one example with unnerf wild growth being that strong to even nowdays. Similar to what rogue does nowadays.
The challenge here is how to make decks look different when some cards are auto include.
So this is current as of this hour. Keep in mind i had to filter a smaller sample size for top 1K legend because there’s so few games played at that level. The 7500 at top 1K yielded 3 results for decks. Not surprising those were in Order Paladin, Demon Hunter and then Rogue.
If you search by last 3 days or 6 hours you see basically the same thing you pointed out here
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yeah i thought about posting that but i prefer to look at a weeks worth of data. The meta is really starting to get settled in those two brackets and the difference is interesting. The only constant are the 3 decks i mentioned above as the most dominant. Not exactly shocking news to most players.
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This happens a lot in wild with paladin or shamans…
Sometimes you have the perfect hand to combat any of his otk but for fear of it being aggro, librams or totems i ended up changing my hand and losing that game…
I think that helps Paladin a lot to be on top and we should aim for all classes to have that variety of decks…
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The only reason i filtered for a shorter time frame is because of all the changes happening like you said. Hs replay(free version) is worthless its like 2 weeks behind xD
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Interesting observation. Basically a dominate deck of any given class influences others into bad mulligans against less popular decks of that same class. Also think that mulligan in general and starting hand currently have too much influence on the outcome.
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This happens across many different TCG. If a certain deck becomes dominant then it allows something to sneak in. This happened in Universal Fighting Systems. A certain character was seeing a massive amount of play as an aggressive deck. It could win on turn 1 with a perfect opening and normally ended the game turn 3 at the latest if there was no disruption. So, people started teching heavily for the deck. This allowed for a control version of the deck to sneak in and catch people completely off guard. You HAD to mulligan as if you were seeing the agro version so you don’t just lose turns 1-3, but then you would be in an awful position against the control version.
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Finally, a few people that understand
So, how to deal with that issue? Playing a homebrew spin on one of the netdecks with 2+ decks represented?
There is no real solution in all honesty. You have to ask yourself, “Does my deck do better against X or Y without a hard mulligan for answers?” The next question is, “Which of these 2 decks is seeing more play?” Then you do a risk analysis.
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Stop caring about what your opponent plays when things get shady.
Just play something that can hold itself alone and Mulligan based on your own plan.
It looks like a teching issue at First glance but then you remember that It only happens because the first variant is powerfull.
When this start happening It is Just better to play the odds since even the most powerfull don’t always start with it’s better hand.
This is incoherent.
20 characters.
No.
This is understanding that you can’t really read it and find a better Gamble.
The odds of my opponent not have a perfect hand are for sure higher than me predicting what deck my opponent is using even If It has only 2 options(also not true because he has more than that).
If you are forced into that type of analisis you already started your match with real disadvantage.
Not being sumb enough to lose time finding an answer sometimes is the best answer you can give.
Honestly, of the two, TheDuke’s answer is much more useful in this situation, but yeah, I kinda understand where Minami is coming from, too
The thing is, slower meta aren’t actually my cup of tea so I’m at a loss here, even with Firestone mulligan guide (not to mention I seldom netdeck anymore, as well, because I find all of them ultra boring, what can I say, it happens)
Sooo, unfortunately that means I’m not even sure my deck is viable from one day to another, let alone if my mulligan-ing is sound or not, and I need any help I can get
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Almost forgot.
Since the draenei deck you posted here i kinda got tired of imbue so i started iterating with different mage builds.
Hilariously enough i found myself playing a dark gift Variant of big spell mage to legend this month.
It is Just virtually impossible to target with other decks due to the sheer randoness and can have some really Crazy moments like a turn 3 Double 7/8.
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