Loser's queue and hidden mmr ('rigged matchmaking')

Multiplayer Discussion
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We have ‘possible’ example, a guy who is Legendary with 80% win rate, one lucky dude. People loosing does not mean, they are bad and will change decks. They might still win other matches, there are a lot of combinations. But our lucky dude, beats them and has better deck compared overall players or skill.

No, but he the best odd deck builder with skill. Could average with very high win rate, still loose some but maintains 80%.

They could still cycle between at average decks at that rank and counters. Some decks have good value and that always been the base. If he has good deck, skill and others don’t start to play it, there is no fear he should start to loose more then usual.

Not all are hard counters game gives, which would be way to obvious. More he passes 50% harder the game makes it.

You could times x100, makes no difference. You could had that luck when new cards came out, game was still poor at evaluating decks powers.

That’s the point, could be why some people post about rigging. Does not feel equal.

Riggity rii is the only way!

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Help me Tom Cruise! Use your black magic to get the fire off me!

65

yeah… that’s not how card games work.

you know, there’s this slight issue of RANDOMly drawing cards and all.

you can take the absolute definition of a coinflip, a coinflip, and if you randomly do 100 flips, you will have in there plenty of series of heads and plenty of series of tails. You wont be having a perfect head-tails-head-tails sequence.

the same is true for card games, “favored” comes around 55%-60% for the vast majority of the decks.

that means that getting a winning, or losing, streak, is actually quite the normal stuff to happen. No conspiracy theories.

And that’s exactly why i said that with a small sample size, “statistically” there’s a HUGE chance of that to happen, because the overall chances need big enough sample size to normalise.

But sure, you can pat yourself on the back, and say that the game is cheating you (and specifically you, not your opponent for some reason) instead. That sounds about reasonable for this level of conversation.

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  • In coinflip you won’t get 8 win and then 6-7 loose. You get lucky and get 8 heads, then 2 tail and 3 heads again, ie in real RNG way. Your flip RNG does not get manipulated, more heads or tails you get, to favor other more.
  • I really don’t know what you mean by 55-60%. In real RNG you raise only by win streaks, otherwise it’s close to 50%.
  • No conspiracy, but winning and loosding streaks don’t follow eachother.
  • game is cheating(specifically you, not your opponent) - no, while game counters you, he took player which has lost to others. So it cheats both. Giving you stronger and him weaker.

Riggity rii

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the only thing that says that something is getting manipulated, is you saying that it does.

“real rng” as you say iut, works exactly like that: chance of having 2 streaks, one loss one win, following one another. That’s actual REAL rng.

so, a normal 55-60% winrate deck, is as manipulated as a coinflip more or less.

and both have a chance to result in winstreaks and losestreaks.

as long as you cannot manully edit your deck to have the exact same cards drawn each and every time in the same exact order, card games will have a tremendous amount of rng based on that alone.

what i mean by 55-60 is the average winrate of a deck that is suppossed to be favored.

when you say you get “countered” in most cases (fringe cases aside) you get matched with decks you still have 40-45% chance to win (that is, if you are a good enough pilot of your deck).

“tier 1” decks are basically about that winrate.

most definately win and lose streaks can follow one another based on simple randomness.

again, even in a simple coinflip you can get streaks of one followed by streaks of the other. no manipulaiton necessary, just randomness.

what you call “2 folled by 3” is actually not random, but rather stacked odds. And it’s not your fault, the majority of people fail to grasp what actual randomness means.

i.e. after the coin lands on heads, it is still exactly 50% chance to land on head the next time.

or, in your case, after you face that deck that is 20% in the ladder, it is still 20% to face it again after that. The chance to run into it doesnt decrease (or increase) based on what happenned in the past.

“so it cheats both”

that’s mathematically impossible since it would result in a net loss of mmr across the ladder over time.

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68

Thank you for bringing this up. This is the fallacy that unfortunately haunts gamblers. Prior outcomes do not statistically affect the probability of future outcomes in a coin flip, or at roulette, or when opening card packs, or what have you.

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While you are right about coin flip and roulette, I disagree with that one. But you profit from the “rigged card opening.” Because the more packs you open without getting a legendary, the better your chances of getting one (always the same set) are.

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No. The pack you opened previously does not affect your chances of drawing anything in the next pack you open. I will grant you, however, that there is a pity timer.

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Ok, I might be wrong about it, because I could not find an official note, but I thought the chances of getting an legendary increases after 20 packs (or so) without one, until you are guaranteed one after 40 packs

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