Let's talk MATHS

Let’s talk MATHS

Let’s! But are you ready?

I’ve been doing some estimates on a couple of occasions, such as: Mercenaries tasks question - #16 by SparkyElf-2852 , Warlock shifts the meta in an unhealthy way - #62 by SparkyElf-2852 .

In both of these cases, I asked about confidence intervals for the binomial distribution — usually you’d want some software or at least tables (sounds old-fashioned, yes) to calculate such things. Speaking of which:

Your question is directly related to the issue raised (see above). In case you didn’t get it, the ‘true’ answer is something along these lines: the win rate lies in the interval of (expected value +/- stochastic error) with the X% probability (confidence level), i.e. the ‘confidence interval’, sometimes measured in ‘sigmas’ — usually for the normal (Gaussian) distribution, though, not the binomial one, which I was asking about.

As for the reaction, well, what do you know? Not a single substantial answer from self-annointed (sic) forum’s maths ‘gurus’, who’d usually scrunch their noses and talk about ‘SaMpLe SiZeS’ as if they understood anything about it. Verdict: either the local audience has got no clue — or those few who do are completely silent.

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