Incorrect drop rate and double legendary cards

Translation with Google (German / English)
Good day,
I have two different problems to report, I hope to get help here.
Problem 1: Latest expansion
90 card packs for money bought in €
Bought 58 packs of cards for gold
12 card packs opened before expansion
= 160 packs if I have not miscalculated.
Only 4 legendary cards were there = all 40 packs
Blizzard must have miscalculated, this value corresponds
every 30-40 packs, not all 20-30 packs, or is mine
Drop chance about wrong ???
Problem 2: package of the dragon
I bought the shop offer package of the dragon, now the following happens.
I get several legendary cards at once, I think there were 5.
But I got 3 legendary cards twice.

  1. Legendary master thief Togwaggel Gold + Normal
  2. Legendary Kronx Dragon Hoof Gold + Normal
  3. Legendary Shu’ma Normal + Normal
    Unfortunately, what happened here feels very bad, I wanted legendary cards
    from the latest expansion, but they drop very badly, then I buy a mix
    Package of card packs, I then get 3 legendary cards that I don’t at all
    I need to disenchant 2 Golden Legendary cards and a double one
    Disenchanting the legendary card is very unfair. It can’t be that already
    drop existing legendary cards again, I can’t see which ones myself
    Packs of a legendary card are included. The following scenario, you get every week
    in the card chaos a classic pack, I have all classic legendary cards, but it is allowed
    be no punishment that now, of all times, a legendary classic card is dropping, I have
    not feeling good opening a classic pack every week. Now I have a lot of money
    bought the latest extension, then I buy the next shop offer, the result is
    very bad, my money is wasted, i don’t get enough legendary servants from the
    newest expansion, but with my second purchase many legendary duplicates.

I would like to ask you to examine this once, I also wish that my duplicates
into dust, and Blizzard should rethink this mechanic, which leads to
the players are frustrated, I’ve been a Hearthstone player since the very beginning, I thought that
it can no longer be possible that double Legendary cards can be dropped, but I get 3 doubles.

I am very grateful for feedback and a solution.

Best regards, Stomfire / Germany

The documented knowledge about legendary drop rate is:

  1. The average drop rate is 1 legendary per 20 packs. But remember, the problem with average is that half the people do worse, and half the people do better. You never get complaints from the people that do better, but the people that do worse often feel terrible.
  2. For new expansions only, the first legendary is guaranteed within the first 10 packs.

Not documented, not official, but supported by large amounts of observed and tracked pack openings, is one more relevant point:

  1. A “pity timer” guarantees that at most 39 consecutive packs can be opened that have no legendaries (i.e. worst case is once every 40 packs). This pity timer is tracked for each expansion individually, so it is still possible to e.g. get 60 packs without legendary if they are from multiple expansions.

When opening packs from a new expansion, the absolute worst case for a player is to find legendaries in packs 10, 50, 90, 130, 170, and so on.

Problem 1: You write that you had 160 packs and 4 legendaries, which means that you are on or very close to this worst case; if you are on the worst case then legendary #5 will be in pack 170.
However, you also write “12 card packs opened before expansion”, which suggests that they are from a different expansion, and hence on their own pity timer.
Either way, 4 legendaries in 160 packs is definitely very unlucky. But unlucky happens, just as lucky sometimes happens. (My daughter recently had 2 legendaries in a single pack).

Problem 2: And here is another example of lucky. Getting 5 legendaries in 45 packs is way better then average. In fact, if we take problems 1 and 2 together, you have 9 legendaries in 205 packs, which is only very slightly worse then average.

Hearthstone offers duplicate protection for legendaries and triplicate protection for other rarities. If you already own (or have owned) one copy of a legendary, or two copies of another card, then you should not receive another copy.
But of course, the card pool is not unlimited. Once you own or have owned all legendary cards from, for example, Descent of Dragons, then when the game rolls a legendary for a Descent of Dragons pack it has of course no other choice but to give you a duplicate. Which is what, apparently happened for you for Shu’ma and Kronx. And I guess you also already own (or have owned) all legendaries from Rise of Shadows, hence the duplicate Heistbaron Togwaggle.

Not sure if this is due to the machine translation.
I fail to see how receiving a legendary in the classic pack is a punishment. If you already own all classic legendaries, then I guess you also already own all epic, rare, and common cards. Which means a classic pack is automatically only dust for you, and a legendary is more dust than another card.
Finding a legendary in a classic pack does not affect your chance of finding a legendary in another pack. The 5% chance is individual and not correlated to other packs. The (undocumented) pity timer IS correlated to other packs, but this is tracked within each expansion separately. So if your last 39 Ashes of Outland packs had no legendary and then you do find a legendary in a Classic pack, then the next Ashes of Outland pack will still be #40 for the pity timer and hence guaranteed(*) to have a legendary.

(*) “Guaranteed” … but I do need to repeat that the pity timer is not officially documented or acknowledged, so this is not a Blizzard guarantee.

1 Like

Not just 6 legendaries in 45 packs. Two GOLDEN legendaries and four normal ones. That’s ridiculous luck, over FOURTEEN TIMES the normal golden legendary drop rate. Your regular legendary drops were three times as common as normal. You got incredibly lucky, and you complain?

no, there are no 6 legendaries, instead 3 normal legendaries, I already had my own servant, but doubles have been dropped

… which is to be expected if you already own (or have owned) all legendaries of that expansion.
If you got a duplicate legendary while you still miss (and never previously owned and then disenchanted) another legendary from the same expansion, then that would be a bug. If that’s the case, then please provide screenshots of the duplicate legendary, as well as a screenshot that shows which legendaries of that same expansion you miss.

many thanks for the answer. Here are the screenshots. I already had the golden legendary servants in my inventory, a total of 3 normal and double legendary cards have been dropped.

It is depressing when I buy new packs of cards for money so that I harm myself.

I would be happy about a solution.

many Greetings

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You forgot an important part of Big Hugger’s request, please show a screenshot of the legendaries of that set which you are missing. In English, the search keywords would be “missing rarity:legenadry”. I am not sure what the exact words would be in German, though. Alternatively, you can activate crafting, search for Legendary and select only the card set for which you opened packs. Example:

https://imgur.com/a/4h7NNbO

Remember that duplicate protection for Legendary cards does nto care about regular and golden! If you have every Legendary cards of that set, regular or golden, then the next ones you will open will be duplicates! Actually, I read that is you do have all cards of a certain rarity, new regular duplicates will be in priority cards for which you only have golden copies, and new golden duplicates will be cards for which you only have regular copies. But otherwise, duplicates are random.