I feel like cheating - HSguru mulligan stats - fake news

Multiplayer Discussion
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EDIT: I’ve taken a look at mulligan stats for other decks, and they’re completely delusional.

DO NOT FOLLOW them. The stats are very wrong.

Today’s the beginning of a new era of Hearthstone gaming for me xD

I’ve finally found mulligan stats for free

Go to hsguru, decks, filter for legend/top 1k to get the best lists, click on a deck you wanna see the stats for, scroll to the bottom and click on Deck stats.

Now you see Mulligan impact, drawn winrate and Kept impact. Ignore those for now, you’re not interested in general stats. We want to filter:

a) filter for top 1k (unless noone in top 1k is playing your deck, in which case, filter for what you can, or better yet, change decks)
b) filter for class you’re up against.

Enjoy!!

I literally feel like cheating. I’ve always known a big part of me getting stuck and learning decks too slowly compared to others was the mulligan.

Without these stats, it takes me hundreds of games to see what’s working in each matchup.

Now I should be pretty much unstoppable.

Let’s raise the quality of this game - let’s cheat together.

Good luck!

P.S. D0nkey says “Mulligan impact” is the stat we want to follow, so I’ll listen to him, although to me it makes more sense to follow the “Kept impact”

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In Magic The Gathering knowing how to mulligan is what sets the good and great apart. It is one of the most overlooked parts of card games in my experience.

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If I’ve known about these stats, I’d be top 20 player long time ago, lol

As I said, it takes me hundreds of games to learn how to play decks which others call “easy to play”

And yeah, of course mulligan is important, even more so in faster metas such as this one

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The vast majority of players do not actually go back through their plays/decisions and try to find out how they could have done better. Let alone analyzing what opening hands/cards do the best vs certain classes/decks.

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It’s so funny…

I got showdown + sea giant + zilliax in hand against warrior, and I kept all because it’s a full combo, despite mulligan stats claiming that keeping zilliax against warrior is a losing play.

Turn 3 he played dirty rat and pulled out zilliax. If I had listened to the stats, he would have (maybe) pulled the giant instead.

Wow. Just wow. And yeah, I lost.

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Not that data will disagree but Mulligan in HS is easy.

You’re looking for explosive starts, rest of game effects that can be cast early and temperate that with basic gambling skills so you not end bricking yourself while looking for that stuff.

Other than that sometimes you have cards like Khadgar that are broken in a vacuum.
You try to get those too.

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The data are bad, I checked them with top 10 players on stream.

Also, if it’s not easy for me who’s playing in higher ranks than you, how can it be easy for you?

The fact that you think it’s easy is part of the reason why you’re not top level player.

Dunning-Kruger!

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I have my own issues that are different of yours.

But Mulligan for hearthstone is easier than other games because you don’t need to consider stuff like mana in your hand for example.

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Well, I don’t play other card games, so the comparison is of no interest to me

It’s really not that easy, as it’s extremely matchup dependant. The higher your rank and the faster the meta, the higher the impact of mulligan on your winrate.

I used to be able to just pick up any deck and cruise to top 2k legend years ago. Now, I need 80-100 games to warm up to it, and even afterwards, I still have mistakes in my mulligan, which are hard to spot and correct.

It takes watching top players play the exact same deck and finding the situation where you would make a mistake, which is not often, but often enough to make them rank 10 times better.

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What? Are you sure you weren’t just looking at low sample stats?

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The sample size IS low, and there’s nothing that we can do about it

For insanity warlock, it says symphony of sins is one of the best Mulligan impact and Kept impact cards in individual matchups (against mage, paladin, warlock, etc)

I’ve talked to mrYagut and MakiahTime about it and both of them say they never keep Symphony

I don’t know who does that or how they win with it, but it taints the data

Idk which data I’m supposed to trust and which ones not, so it’s confusing

I see some logical stuff like keeping Domino effect against priests and mages, but then I see some completely nonsensical stuff like keeping fracking against hunters or felstring harp against warriors, when you want early minions for pressure against them

And again, I’m confused about:

a) which column to choose from - Mulligan impact of kept impact, and
b) which subset of data to choose from - Top1k or Top 10k - both of them have small samples and differ in the results

Let’s say I’m a top 500 player who picks up a deck for the first time - how do I filter which of these data will make my winrate higher than not using them, and which ones will make it lower?

Is it possible, or is it possible to make it possible, to find mulligan data from specific streamers? For example, I know mryagut hit 2x rank 1 with insanitylock last month, and I’d like to only see HIS mulligan data

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I’ve pointed this out multiple times over the past 3 months

You’re literally looking at the proof that they’re wrong, but you can’t shake the hero worship

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If you wanna be the best, you learn from the best, not from the average

Stats have that strange characteristic of pointing out the average

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The averagely good, or bad, or mid.
Not the average.

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Anyway, it’s a chaos

Take for example, insanitylock vs paladin, top 1k, says furnace fuel mulligan impact 2nd best (+16,7), kept impact +66,7, the highest

What’s that supposed to mean? It’s a terrible play. You don’t wanna play furnace fuel, you wanna see it burned

How am I supposed to know that if I’ve just picked up a deck for the first time?

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If this is the only way to learn, then you can’t get better than the people above you. True learning is not from other people at all, it is from one’s environment

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What it means is that you’re looking at something with super low sample. Are you looking at a specific list that has a low sample?

None of the examples you have given in this thread hold up when you look at archetypes card stats for insanity warlock. Not even for top 1k past week.

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The list and the stats I’m looking at:

https://www.hsguru.com/card-stats?deck_id=12512828&format=2&rank=top_legend

I filter for class I’m playing against and yeah, mostly the samples are low, but I’m not really interested in looking at legend, or diamond-legend ones, as that’s sort of a different game entirely, isn’t it?

Which stats do you look for when you pick up a new deck?

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It’s definitely not a different game entirely. If the sample at top 1k is low it’s much better to look at legend or even D-L mull stats.

Anyways, you can use archetype card stats to increase your sample size. That’s what I generally use.