Hearthstone really is rigged. Here's how to beat it

I’m going to sit on the fence on this one, yet point out that if there is some secretive programming going on it would be just that, a secret. It’s well known these games are addictive, there’s treatment centers for MMOs in some parts of the world.

As for the conspiritorial denial outright, seems foolish to assume either way on a subject that we couldn’t prove either way without raiding some corporate headquarters with a team of top notch computer programmers. Could make a bad movie about it, someone probably already did.

This is like trying to guess at or deny God or gods, for most of us. Conspiracy or no conspiracy there would almost never be a confession to mass psychological manipulation by any organization. Even though it’s well known much of psychological research is used both against and for people at the same time, how to use people buttons is taught in colleges, with neutral approaches to avoid ethical debacles like this subject of blizzard possibly playing players minds like fiddles in every way possible. I wouldn’t be surprised though, lots of money goes into psychological research in the name of business and advertising (persuasion psychology), and there are literally textbooks hundreds of years old on these subjects (Machiavelli anyone?), but it’s not like most people have ever gone out of their way to see the not so attractive, or simply bland, side of truth.
Like money not being real (it’s paper and ink, or metal or what have you, in “physical reality”, money itself is something that only exists in our minds as a social construct / imagined reality, like lines on a map, nations, or corporate entities. Ironic that corpus means body)

Maybe blizzard doesn’t have to cheat that hard though, these games sell themself after all. Like chocolate, or worse things. It’s our choice, and so long as it’s legal, people will escape/cope/vent/live vicariously in whatever ways possible, in mass.

None of these speculations against blizzards tactics matter though, unless it’s slander/libel taken to a courtroom in the name of the god of reputation. Must be in cahoots with the god of intelletual property.
Logos is the new Ethos, so to speak. Lots of altruistic/optimistic nihilism going around as religion and spirituality in general go out of favor, with science and business picking up the remains and shaping our future cultures. Must keep ones intuiting and ampliatative reasoning unspoken until further notice…

I should note, I have been up for a day or so. There’s shadow people in my room somewhere. Maybe they programmed the algorithms. Maybe the algorithms are programming themself, and only targeting people they don’t like, out of spite for taking too long on their turns!

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We’ve been over this multiple times within this thread and others. While it’d be difficult to demonstrate with 100% certainty that the game is/n’t rigged, It is possible to demonstrate beyond reasonable doubt that something is occurring (hence the reason why the entire field of statistics exists). If someone believes the game to be rigged, then it should be easy to assess the likelihood of how matches/cards/etc should be distributed, record a statistically significant number of games, and show that they are so far out of the norm that you can reject the status quo/null hypothesis that the game isn’t rigged.

There’s a difference between an omnipotent/omniscient/by-definition-can’t-be-evaluated-by-science being that supersedes reality, and a simple pattern in a video game. If it’s obvious enough to be seen with the naked eye, then it should be obvious enough to perform a basic statistical analysis.

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how they rig their game.

1- mulligan pull wight system.
each card in hearthstone has 2 hidden numbers in them. the higher the number the higher the chance to get pulled (Draw) early in the game.
the other number is for it’s role. special number is given to cards that are removals and tech.

example
Paladin [Air Raid] (2mana) this spell have really high pull weight number early on than [Lay on Hands] (8mana)

before each draw the system rolls your cards. and see which card got the highest number it get pulled.
based on Current turn - current mana - card weight - card mana - and finally board situation.
these gets into the calculation it’s still random
as there is a chance you roll bad cards or none optimal cards. the card weight is a number that gets added to increase the likely hood of getting proper result.
like - Roll 100 + card weight


now that I got that out of the way, back to how the game is rigged.

the game messes with those hidden numbers based on your win rate. Pick only one deck as OP stated.
play it. and get few wins.
what would u notice is that your “winning” cards don’t gets harder and harder to get pulled to a point they become the bottom of your deck.
and your opening hands would be reversed in mana. you would get the Highest cost cards in your mulligan, and the cards that you didn’t play previously.
you mulligan 4 highest costs cards. only to receive almost the same cards back.

that’s Step one
step two
the match making itself also matches you with people with similar winrates.
you won 5 games in a row. the game matches you with people winning 5 games in a row.

the game doesn’t want you to win hard.
as OP suggested playing different dicks and switching between them would fix the and minimize the Card weight rigging. and you’d be matched against people with similar consecutive win rates.

want proof ?
Play Pure paladin libram deck. and only that deck. play 10 games in a row and see your opening hands. after each win. once you lose. you’d immediately giving good opening hands.
Again it’s still RNG. for computing there is no such thing as pure Random. they have to calculate it somehow.

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Wow this thread refuses to die. Only thing dumber than denying rigging when it is allegedly “so obvious” (even though ya know statistics and data is openly tracked on many sites) would be to continue playing it when you “know” it is rigged. You brilliant people do realize it can’t simultaneously be “obvious” to the naked eye and yet also unprovable right? If you can clearly see a pattern you could easily generate data showing it is there on your own. There’s so much stupidity on display here it is embarrassing. So why is it oh prophets and champion of the masses is it that you can see it and realiably trigger it and yet somehow can’t provide any actual evidence? It’s such a stupidly obvious contradiction inherent in your claim that it is mind bogglingly insane you’d voice the claim in the first place.

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Hold on, wouldn’t these two steps be counter-productive if they’re both implemented? Why pair 2 winstreakers against each other if you’re just gonna be causing them both to have poor opening hands?

Also, as an aside, 10 games is way too few to get reliable data.

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so they are guaranteed to lose. no one can win indefinitely.
let’s say everyone playing DH and u play Warlock that 100% counters them and win.
you wouldn’t be able to win 100% of the time against them if the odds of getting good cards diminish over time.

it’s not about getting a reliable data. it’s about replicating the pattern.
one of the scientific method is reproducing the pattern. and I can tell you. playing and winning 10 games with that deck would replicate the results I mentioned.
why that deck in particular ?
cause paladin is the most Basic deck there is. and it’s more apparent there

So what are you predicting then. The cards being drawn?

My opening hands were not predicted like that in the games I played. I will keep track of them over 10 games and write it here.

You state those things as if they are mutually exclusive but that is false. Identifying a pattern REQUIRES good data to validate the claim.

Are you saying you have to be on a win streak? You realize that’s an argument from final consequence. Since you are more likely to win when you get your low cost cards first, you are basically saying wait until you draw your low cost cards multiple games in a row and then just watch, you will get bigger cost cards over time. You are not predicting half of what you claim to be.

If you get surprisingly good opening hands for a few games it should be no surprise that you will get worse hands afterwards that are closer to the average opening hand.

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The amount of stupidity in this thread is astounding.

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And yet you keep coming back to it.
And looking up a bit i see you are not the only one.
The amount of people who dont like this thread yet keep coming back to it to complain about the thread over and over,yes that is an astounding amount of stupidity.

Game is rigged,sometimes.

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this is interesting i will try this out.

This is a great thread tbh,all the rigging nicely compacted into 1 single thread.
The people who enjoy the thought of the game beeing rigged,me included,can come here to discuss it and have some fun with it without bothering anyone else.

And the people who dont like this discussion,they can simply ignore the thread. Though for many that is easier said then done. Maybe one day,we can hope.

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except…any statistician worth their salt would tell you that 10 games is not enough to reliably detect patterns. And if we’re looking for patterns that don’t even appear until you are on a winstreak, then we would certainly want to acquire more data.

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Not rlly…

for example:

DH is OP, so the players build counter decks, the counter decks are Priest / Big & Embiggen Druid, so of course. you often play for example as every Class most of the time against Priest or Druid. Its just logical.

i dunno why ure talking about rigged. Like seriously, idk. :face_with_raised_eyebrow:

That’s totally not my point.
There are two Major argument points in this thread.
A- wither the game is Rigged or not.
B- How the game is rigged.
C- why anyone care if it is or not.

If you don’t think the game is rigged. GOOD for you. have a nice day. (you are unable to see it. and ignored all those people and posts of people claiming it is)
my point is… Many people are saying it is… but none of them were able to tell how. The OP’s point of this thread. he said based on his experience that it is. and he found a workaround.
If you think the game is rigged. then read my post. and see how I think the game is rigged.

More data are always better than no data and fails claims.
I’m not providing a proof that the game is rigged.
I’m providing proof of how the game rigs the Card Pull Weight System
with minimum 10 games its all it’s requires for these patterns to appear.
if you continue over the coarse of 1000 games. you’d get better results that’s for sure. and I’m not denying that.

here I played 10 games using (Auto complete) paladin deck.

Test paladin

Class: Paladin

Format: Standard

Year of the Phoenix

2x (2) Air Raid

2x (2) Aldor Attendant

2x (2) Hand of A’dal

2x (2) Libram of Wisdom

1x (2) Murgur Murgurgle

1x (2) Sandwasp Queen

2x (2) Shotbot

2x (2) Subdue

2x (3) Aldor Peacekeeper

2x (3) Bronze Explorer

2x (4) Lightforged Zealot

2x (5) Aldor Truthseeker

2x (6) Libram of Justice

1x (7) Lady Liadrin

2x (7) Lightforged Crusader

1x (8) Tirion Fordring

2x (9) Libram of Hope

AAECAZ3DAwT6BpamA/y4A4TBAw2PCZasA5CuA5uuA5yuA422A5a2A8q4A/24A+q5A+u5A+y5A8rBAwA=

To use this deck, copy it to your clipboard and create a new deck in Hearthstone

not the most balanced deck but I managed to get 6 out 10 wins with it in Sliver rank (made it to gold with it lol)

( imgur. com/gDG2GEP ) to see my opening hands and mulligans for each game.

the more constrictive wins the worst the card draws are.
I know this deck is not that great and it’s not optimized. stuff like this does happen. but it’s not random if you can predict it happening.

How the game rigs your winrate.
1- messes with your (Card pull weight)
2- matches you against people with similar win rates.
3- gives you bad matchups

I mean seriously what other variables Hearthstone can do to force you stay near 50% winrate ?

they cannot control how you play.
they cannot control how other people play.
they cannot control which decks people near your rank plays.
If you win a lot . the game have increased chances for you to be matched with players who are also winning a lot. (not 100% chance but an increased chances) losing a lot? you’d have a very high chances of getting matched with other players who are also losing a lot.
pretty simple.

then the game also rigs your Card Pull Weight giving you increased chances of drawing bad cards.
this bad chances increases when u are near winning your 3rd game in a row (so u don’t get the 10 gold) lol

I’m honestly agnostic towards the question of if the game is rigged or not. However, if you think I am ignoring the posts of people who claim that it is, that couldn’t be further from the truth. The reason I engage in these threads is to encourage those who are convinced that the rigging is real to put in the time and effort to show others that this rigging is real.

Except, no. At only 10 games, it is actually impossible to tell if any apparent pattern is real or simply the result of randomness.

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what do you mean no ?
did u try it ?
did you get different results ?

what I’m saying actually align itself with what OP said.
2 people saying and getting similar results. but I’m providing more context to what’s happening.
it’s align with what most people where saying over the years. especially with the paladin class. cause these card pull weight is the most apparent and relay heavily on good draws.
what they say was a phenomenal that is. (you either win hard or lose hard as paladin) playing same exact deck.

I explain it.
I provided the means to replicated these results
i did get same results most of the time (cause there is still RNG involved)
then
I manned it and did it just now. and got same result
yet you say it’s random.

if you are not convinced. (well you shouldn’t ) but if you want to prove me wrong.
go ahead play Conservative 1000 games using the same deck i provided (changing your deck once. would ruin the results) . and show me why I am wrong.

if u over flow water into the glass it will spill.
NO
ok here’s a proof (puts a glass under a tap. and it spills)
No that’s just random
ok here I do it again
it’s random
I do it again
it’s random …

This is what I am talking about. Sheer Lunacy

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Why should I be the one who has to put in the effort to provide your evidence? If you’re so convinced that the rigging is real, why would YOU not be willing to put in the time and effort to collect the evidence required to convince those of us that are skeptical.

Just because you think that 10 games was enough to count as convincing evidence does not make that actually true. Any statistician who claimed that they had found a trend with only 10 points of data would get laughed out of the room.

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This is assuming someone hasn’t already thought of this and taken precautions against detection via statistics, using randomization and/or selective targeting methods based on player behavior.

I’m not saying Letsurf’s specific hunches are correct either. I’m saying there could easily be any number of hidden programming operations going on behind the scenes we wouldn’t know about, for intentions we can only guess at. Could just be programmers having fun, with or without company consent.
And if they were caught, we might not even know, because that would be bad for reputation, which is everything.
What’s the secret is one thing, how it’s done, another; and why… oh why.

I find the most likely answer to why a game would mess with their players to be psychological information gathering funded by people with interests in knowing more about human behavior. Lots of money to be made in knowing how people tick, and each target audience / stereotype has it’s own kinks in addition to general primal insticts.

The only reason I even say anything about this conspiratorial ideology is that I find such speculations to be amusing, the same way most people chat about things they can’t or won’t do much if anything about. Like politics, gossip, or rehashing current events without practical reasoning. Except all of that casual stuff bores me so, here I am.

I apologize if anyone takes this stuff too seriously. Unless you think there’s something you could actually do about the powers that be besides trying to “make people more aware” (as someone might say), which is often dangerous or outright destructive when done directly unless they would already agree with you anyway.

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This is why I advocate for people to gather large amounts of data. If, even after analyzing tens of thousands of games, we cannot detect any signs of possible “rigging,” then how is the way they’re rigging the game functionally different from pure randomness?

I think there is something that people can do. If someone goes through the effort of analyzing thousands of games and DOES find evidence of “rigging,” then there are consumer advocacy groups they could bring this evidence to who would have the capital required to press charges against Blizzard.

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There is rigging. It’s just not in the way you think. You can generate volumes of data for statistics and whatnot and not a single one will be valid unless you know what you’re looking for.

What really matters is player experience. They feel the system is terrible. It is, if that is their experience. The game isn’t making the money it needs to. That’s true too if that is what’s happening. And the game has been and will be rigged to address those things.