This is been too often the case…and it actually happens in games multiple times back to back to where I’m tightening the tin foil headband once more to make a shoutout about this:
Four games in a row. Four. I’ve mulliganed high cost cards to y’know, try to ramp appropriately. Yet lately they’ve been the first or second card I draw. This is in Standard, and Wild. I’m starting to think I’m hacked or it’s a bug because of how often it oddly occurs, suspiciously, frustratingly so.
Do I file a bug report? Do I reinstall? I’m at a loss at how either the back end “shuffling” is bugged, or if I am alone in this endeavor. It’s legit making it hard to climb and that also is what’s got my eyebrow raising, with full “This is impossible” levels of suspicion.
Sadly I couldn’t find anywhere online to figure out the odds of shuffling X:2 or 1:1 (Legendaries) copies into a 30 card deck and that card being on top. If anyone knows that math or odds or how to figure that, just so I can get some stupid “rate/odds” closure of this happening, I’d be very appreciative.
Suppose you shuffled 3 of them away in mulligan and drew one of them next turn, and that happened 4 games in a row.
After mulliganing the 3 high-cost away, assuming none of them are legendary (which is probably incorrect, but it will play in favor of your argument more than mine), you still have 3*2 = 6 of those high-cost cards you can draw the next turn, and your deck has 27 cards left in it, so the probability of drawing one of them next turn is:
6/26=3/13 = 23%, or about 1 every 5 games, so if you haven’t seen it happen this often, you know you were long overdue a correction
anyway, that happens 4 games in a row about:
0,23^4, and I can’t make myself calculate this because there’s a bunch of other assumptions we have to take into account to calculate it, and the result of this won’t really tell us much
Anyway, you’re tripping, so enjoy the trip
EDIT: it’s 0,28%, so about 3 times in 1000 games. Honestly, these are rookie numbers. I’ve been known to hit ~1 in 10k chances regularly
I had this problem long ago, turned out I had like 10+ to almost 15 of my 30 card deck in the 6+ cost zone. Some doubles some legendaries. So it was a constant problem for me to see either the exact same hand I discarded for a mulligan come right back to me, or be even higher costing ones. lol
Wasnt til i started to take a look at some of the HSReplay decks that I could make without crafting anything that I started to see decks with curves that had less than like 5 cards in their 30 card total costing 6+. Helped out tons.
I dont try to 100% rely upon the netdecks but I do use them as a starting point so I can benefit from the the general structure and reliability of them and then I expand from there. Most the time all my changes to the netdecks are for completing quests like imbue x times or summon y minions with dark gift, etc.
But yeah, having a deck that is mostly on the 2-cost and 3 cost majority of your deck and then the further you get away from those two the fewer of those cost cards you ought to be running. doesnt need to be this way for every deck out there but in general to avoid those terrible mulligans that turn into another terrible one or worse one, this approach i use tends to be the solution.
