In my opinion, being forced to go first is usually an automatically loss. Getting the coin and being able to get to your win-condition card first is a gift. For instance warrior vs warrior, whoever gets to brann first (which it’s usually whoever has the coin) or in the case of mage vs mage, not being able to play counter spell cause they are holding on to the coin. Meanwhile they CAN play counter spell. It’s just little things like that, that make me prefer going second. What about yall?
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Going first has around 80% winrate, going second has around 20%
You might wanna rethink that perspective xD
Going second is better sometimes like when you can make a power play curve like I had this beast druid today going second I got 4 spells in my opening hand but I mulliganed 3 of the cards and only kept Azsharan Gardens which I played on turn 1, and then since the game had decided I was going to win I got to coin out this 2/4 (now 3/5) card called Oracle of Elune I think, on turn 2. And the opponent understandably couldn’t remove it. So then I got to play this card called Addled Grizzly who was not only Azshara Gardens from turn 1, but also got to summon another copy of it, which also got +1/1 because of Addled Grizzly the first one. And then with my remaining 1 mana on turn 3 I got to play this Druid of the Reef card I think it’s called, who got double buffed by the double Addled Grizzly and then the second one from Oracle of Elune got another double buff.
None of this would have been possible had I gone first. I would have had to play 1 addled grizzly on turn 2 instead (and maybe it gets removed). Then the oracles of elune on turn 3. But by that point it would have been too slow probably. Only going second with the coin was such a play possible. There are many other examples of this sort of thing where going second is better and maybe even an auto-win like I had.
If I’m playing against a Druid in wild it doesn’t matter how I start. I’m usually like 4 or 5 mana crystals behind with their mana cheat abilities.
I’d prefer going second though. Going first has no real upside imo.
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I love how people like you automatically start calling someone a troll when someone says something you don’t like. I even said “I prefer” then I asked what everyone else’s opinion was. I know reading is hard but try to do so next time. Also, please grow up.
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Either or, no preference.
You’d be interested to know that when they designed this game, they instated the coin rule plus extra card as a “fudge factor” correction, that is they looked at the data and things roughly looked even after they instated the coin plus extra card.
That was way back at the start of Hearthstone. It’s completely unclear if this fudge factor is even a reasonable thing to do anymore, but then again, it’s unlikely the devs will even bother to look at this again.
This video discusses one of the few datasets Blizzard ever released that discusses this: https://youtu.be/MLQwa8610sM?feature=shared
Hsguru recently added The Coin to card winrate stats. So I’m going to figure out what it actually is.
But I think I can say with confidence based on just Painlock and Highlander Warrior that it’s nowhere near 80-20. It’s going to be fifty something to forty something.
Yeah I just checked my stats and got surprised
There’s a lot of variance between matchups, but in overall it’s almost 50-50
Funny, cuz just 2 months ago it was literally 80-20
I guess it depends on the meta?
In both cases I took a sample of over 300 games with Sludgelock, so that part is consistent
EDIT: maybe those stats were tainted by playing against bots on NA and Asia. Nevermind then.
Dang it hsguru changed days and updated in the middle of me trying to collect
Whatever I’m not starting over, some of the numbers will be from yesterday.
It’s quite tedious to get the coin winrate for every single deck then do a weighted average by deck popularity
Don’t bother, it’s around 50-50, I got plenty of games as a sample xD
My stats were tainted by playing on NA and APAC first time
Apparently, bots don’t do well going 2nd at all
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Yeah but at this point I’m genuinely curious what it is precisely. Or at least precisely enough
Going first for sure. Going 2nd is so awful in HS. The fact some moron in here is claiming going 2nd takes skill or something, please… Having the advantage of going 1st is gigantic. Win a F TON more going first than going 2nd.
Depends on the deck I’m playing.
For quicker decks, I prefer going first. Get on board first is huge!
For slower decks I prefer going second. The extra card in opening hand offsets having to catch up on board.
Eh, probably not.
I just got done running the numbers with the actual data from hsguru.
Overall in top 1000 Legend going second is a -3.9% winrate disadvantage, and in Diamond 4-1 it’s a -4.9% disadvantage. So in general, the Coin is bad but not THAT bad, and the better you get at the game the less the Coin matters. There DOES seem to be some skill element to how much drawback there is to going second, but not that much of one.
Here’s a class chart:
| Coin Effect | T1KL | D4-1 |
|---|---|---|
| DK | -5.6% | -5.0% |
| DH | -4.8% | -5.1% |
| Druid | +0.5% | -4.5% |
| Hunter | +0.6% | -6.5% |
| Mage | -4.7% | -4.8% |
| Paladin | -6.1% | -5.6% |
| Priest | -3.1% | -4.0% |
| Rogue | -2.1% | -4.2% |
| Shaman | -9.7% | -3.5% |
| Warlock | -5.8% | -5.5% |
| Warrior | -2.2% | -3.4% |
So there are two classes right now where at high levels the Coin could be considered an advantage (albeit a very small one), and surprisingly Rogue is not one of those classes.
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Data seems to back up your hypothesis
This part was and is correct.
These parts are incorrect, which makes me sad. I’d have enjoyed hearting your post here.
Oh well, back to ignoring.
Did you capture deck level? Or just class. Curious about control decks vs fast.
Also I don’t know the current meta
It definitely depends on your deck’s tempo swing cards and current meta
There’s no general rule in the likes of “faster decks are hurt less/more by a coin”, at least not one I can see
But hunter being able to coin Rampage or Saddle up is a huge tempo play
If I had to create a rule which passes my experience (don’t know about the data), it would be:
“Faster decks which have huge tempo plays prefer the coin more than faster decks with no huge tempo plays and more than slower decks”
Old sludgelock liked the coin more than today’s, because it had bigger tempo swings. Newer version plays like a full blown aggro, and you don’t wanna go 2nd as a full blown aggro deck
Just my 2 cents from limited experience I have
But then again, it’s a complicated thing to calculate.
Which deck has bigger tempo swings on average - Flood Pally or Handbuff pally?
That would depend on the average tempo swing turn and average game duration, I guess
It’s not the same in every meta.
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Thanks for the chart showing %'s.
I get Druid being barely a positive just because they use Mal’s Gift into Wild Growth turn 2 with coin only.
I still think those %'s overall are massive in the scheme of things. Especially because this game isn’t making sure you even out on going first and second. If you streak going 2nd over and over, that disadvantage becomes way more enormous overall.
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