Early inventions stats via hsguru

Multiplayer Discussion
1
Stats explanation

So my two custom stats here are:

  • Adjusted winrate: this is equal to a deck’s hsguru winrate minus the average winrate of everything on hsguru. The website uses tracker side data only so this everything average is over 50%.
  • Irrationality: this is equal to the best winrate of any deck minus this deck’s winrate, then times popularity times a constant that makes the Irrationality of all decks sum to 100%. So if you look at the meta form the perspective that playing anything but the very best deck is losing winrate, then Irrationality is a percentage of how much winrate is lost by choosing this deck, compared to the total winrate lost by everyone’s deck choices.

Sorted by adjusted winrate:

Diamond 4-1
Archetype Adj. WR Irrationality
Zarimi Priest +6.6%
Aggro Paladin +6.0% 0.4%
Handbuff Paladin +5.2% 1.0%
Dragon Druid +4.7% 0.2%
Shopper DH +4.6% 0.3%
Naga Shopper DH +3.4% 0.2%
Highlander Hunter +3.2% 0.7%
Spell Damage Druid +3.1% 1.2%
Snek Warlock +3.0% 0.6%
Painlock +2.5% 2.2%
Highlander Shaman +2.2% 1.8%
Insanity Warlock +1.9% 5.4%
Lightshow Mage +1.1% 12.3%
Highlander Warrior +0.4% 7.4%
Zoo Hunter +0.4% 1.8%
Excavate Paladin +0.4% 1.0%
Thief Rogue +0.3% 0.2%
Highlander Paladin +0.2% 1.2%
Secret Hunter -0.1% 3.5%
Highlander Druid -0.6% 5.5%
Rainbow DK -0.6% 2.6%
Highlander DK -0.7% 2.4%
Excavate Warrior -0.7% 0.4%
Treant Druid -0.9% 0.3%
Spell Mage -1.5% 2.4%
Drilling Rogue -1.7% 8.2%
Sludge Warlock -2.6% 0.7%
Odyn Warrior -2.9% 0.3%
Highlander Priest -3.4% 6.5%
Plague DK -3.7% 5.2%
Rainbow Mage -4.8% 1.6%
Rainbow Excavate DK -5.0% 0.4%
Handbuff DK -5.5% 3.4%
Cutlass Rogue -5.8% 1.4%
Control DK -6.5% 0.7%
Highlander Rogue -6.7% 0.8%
Coin Rogue -6.7% 1.5%
Pirate Rogue -7.8% 0.4%
Highlander Warlock -7.9% 0.7%
Sonya Rogue -8.6% 0.9%
Riff Warrior -9.3% 0.5%
Highlander Mage -11.4% 0.9%
Mech Warrior -13.5% 7.1%
Owlonius Druid -20.7% 1.7%
Top 10000 Legend
Archetype Adj. WR Irrationality
Odyn Warrior +9.3%
Excavate Paladin +9.2% 0.0%
Aggro Paladin +8.2% 0.3%
Handbuff Paladin +7.9% 0.5%
Painlock +5.3% 2.8%
Zarimi Priest +4.9% 1.2%
Nature Shaman +4.7% 0.3%
Highlander Hunter +3.4% 1.0%
Dragon Druid +3.1% 0.2%
Insanity Warlock +3.1% 3.2%
Zoo Hunter +2.5% 0.4%
Highlander Shaman +1.9% 2.9%
Naga Shopper DH +1.7% 0.8%
Lightshow Mage +1.3% 14.8%
Highlander Warrior +1.2% 6.6%
Highlander Paladin +0.7% 1.5%
Highlander Druid +0.3% 4.0%
Cycle Odyn Warrior -0.2% 0.4%
Shopper DH -0.2% 0.9%
Drilling Rogue -0.3% 9.6%
Spell Damage Druid -0.4% 1.1%
Treant Druid -0.8% 0.3%
Highlander Priest -1.4% 5.6%
Cutlass Rogue -2.6% 1.3%
Secret Hunter -2.7% 4.6%
Excavate Warrior -3.6% 0.7%
Handbuff DK -3.7% 3.3%
Rainbow DK -4.0% 2.9%
Sludge Warlock -4.4% 0.6%
Spell Mage -4.7% 1.4%
Highlander Warlock -5.0% 0.7%
Plague DK -5.2% 1.7%
Cycle Rogue -5.2% 0.7%
Riff Warrior -5.3% 0.7%
Highlander DK -5.3% 2.3%
Rainbow Mage -6.5% 2.3%
Snek Warlock -6.9% 0.6%
Coin Rogue -7.7% 0.8%
Mech Warrior -13.3% 8.6%
Sonya Rogue -13.5% 2.2%
Pirate Rogue -17.3% 1.3%
Owlonius Druid -19.0% 2.6%

Sorted by irrationality:

D4-1
Archetype Adj. WR Irrationality
Lightshow Mage +1.1% 12.3%
Drilling Rogue -1.7% 8.2%
Highlander Warrior +0.4% 7.4%
Mech Warrior -13.5% 7.1%
Highlander Priest -3.4% 6.5%
Highlander Druid -0.6% 5.5%
Insanity Warlock +1.9% 5.4%
Plague DK -3.7% 5.2%
Secret Hunter -0.1% 3.5%
Handbuff DK -5.5% 3.4%
Rainbow DK -0.6% 2.6%
Highlander DK -0.7% 2.4%
Spell Mage -1.5% 2.4%
Painlock +2.5% 2.2%
Highlander Shaman +2.2% 1.8%
Zoo Hunter +0.4% 1.8%
Owlonius Druid -20.7% 1.7%
Rainbow Mage -4.8% 1.6%
Coin Rogue -6.7% 1.5%
Cutlass Rogue -5.8% 1.4%
Spell Damage Druid +3.1% 1.2%
Highlander Paladin +0.2% 1.2%
Handbuff Paladin +5.2% 1.0%
Excavate Paladin +0.4% 1.0%
Sonya Rogue -8.6% 0.9%
Highlander Mage -11.4% 0.9%
Highlander Rogue -6.7% 0.8%
Highlander Hunter +3.2% 0.7%
Sludge Warlock -2.6% 0.7%
Control DK -6.5% 0.7%
Highlander Warlock -7.9% 0.7%
Snek Warlock +3.0% 0.6%
Riff Warrior -9.3% 0.5%
Aggro Paladin +6.0% 0.4%
Excavate Warrior -0.7% 0.4%
Rainbow Excavate DK -5.0% 0.4%
Pirate Rogue -7.8% 0.4%
Shopper DH +4.6% 0.3%
Treant Druid -0.9% 0.3%
Odyn Warrior -2.9% 0.3%
Dragon Druid +4.7% 0.2%
Naga Shopper DH +3.4% 0.2%
Thief Rogue +0.3% 0.2%
Zarimi Priest +6.6%
T10KL
Archetype Adj. WR Irrationality
Lightshow Mage +1.3% 14.8%
Drilling Rogue -0.3% 9.6%
Mech Warrior -13.3% 8.6%
Highlander Warrior +1.2% 6.6%
Highlander Priest -1.4% 5.6%
Secret Hunter -2.7% 4.6%
Highlander Druid +0.3% 4.0%
Handbuff DK -3.7% 3.3%
Insanity Warlock +3.1% 3.2%
Highlander Shaman +1.9% 2.9%
Rainbow DK -4.0% 2.9%
Painlock +5.3% 2.8%
Owlonius Druid -19.0% 2.6%
Highlander DK -5.3% 2.3%
Rainbow Mage -6.5% 2.3%
Sonya Rogue -13.5% 2.2%
Plague DK -5.2% 1.7%
Highlander Paladin +0.7% 1.5%
Spell Mage -4.7% 1.4%
Cutlass Rogue -2.6% 1.3%
Pirate Rogue -17.3% 1.3%
Zarimi Priest +4.9% 1.2%
Spell Damage Druid -0.4% 1.1%
Highlander Hunter +3.4% 1.0%
Warrior -27.8% 1.0%
Shopper DH -0.2% 0.9%
Naga Shopper DH +1.7% 0.8%
Coin Rogue -7.7% 0.8%
Splendiferous Whizbang -21.0% 0.8%
Excavate Warrior -3.6% 0.7%
Highlander Warlock -5.0% 0.7%
Cycle Rogue -5.2% 0.7%
Riff Warrior -5.3% 0.7%
Sludge Warlock -4.4% 0.6%
Snek Warlock -6.9% 0.6%
Handbuff Paladin +7.9% 0.5%
Zoo Hunter +2.5% 0.4%
Cycle Odyn Warrior -0.2% 0.4%
Aggro Paladin +8.2% 0.3%
Nature Shaman +4.7% 0.3%
Paladin -0.8% 0.3%
Treant Druid -0.8% 0.3%
Dragon Druid +3.1% 0.2%
Excavate Paladin +9.2% 0.0%
Odyn Warrior +9.3%
2

remember how I said we’d just shift back to Odyn? Amazing, right?

Still, don’t really mind it, we’re still in very early experimentation (so far I’ve been having good success with a modified version of Excavate Rogue, and also like I predicted HL Shaman seems great atm, and does a good job staving off aggro if you care about that)

3

Not super surprising. Odyn was better against aggro / burn decks, and it’s worst matchup was Brann warrior.

Don’t worry though, it’s still only bad against Brann warrior, so those will come back to keep it in check if Odyn warrior takes over.

1 Like
4

Honestly, no I don’t. But I said that it was a possibility, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all that you said it too. It was a very reasonable prediction.

Schyla predicted it too. I thought that the (IMHO obvious) rise of Handbuff Pally would suppress Reno Shaman to Tier 3, but this appears to have a smaller effect that I thought it’d have and Reno Shaman seems to be a solid Tier 2 now. It still can’t be Tier 1 because Paladin though.

Honestly I remember from looking at matchup spreads and thinking “Reno Shaman is actually in a pretty good strategic spot with this spread” and some point a little over a week ago, so I feel like I really had the tools to call this one properly. Feels bad to miss.

Edit: also it’s a little bit difficult to predict Irrationality, and that metric can be used to work out what is good despite the way matchup spreads would interact with each other in a “perfectly rational” meta. In this case the two decks that are the most irrationally beloved are Lightshow Mage and Excavate Rogue, both of which are good matchups for Reno Shaman. It’s hard to tell when if ever that players will abandon Mage and Rogue for better performing archetypes, but if and when they do, Reno Shaman performance will drop along with that.

2 Likes
5

it seems rogue is going to die this expansion.

There is dorian- goldbeard synergy but it is really hard to pull other than that the cards they gave to Rogue are not things that will help alot.

6

I have an exca rogue list I’m currently 14-2 with that runs both Dubious and Dust Bunny. Rogue is fine rn (I’ll share code later if anyone is interested)

7

Watching Dane’s stream it was hilarious how Dorian was consistently on the bottom of his deck in each of his game as a Rogue :rofl:

8

yesterday I used gaslight 4 times and still couldn’t draw the Dorian. When there is no proper tutoring win condition as one card doesn’t work.