Day 2 Takeaways, Statistics, and Meta-Analysis

So after a few days of the expansion I have a pretty good idea what is and what is not strong. We’ve got some solid metrics and I suspect when the VS Syndicate podcast comes out this weekend they’ll have more or less the same take on things

– The strongest deck in the meta right now is currently triple blood DK. The post-rotation late game inevitability is extremely weak and there are no good combo decks in the meta right now so triple blood farms literally everything. It’s bridging into tier S territory. Expect some form of nerfs in a few weeks.

–Aggro undead DK with eggs looks extremely strong too, but is currently not fast enough to overtake a paladin board, and gets hard countered by triple blood (this is going to become a theme by the way).

–Frost DK is the same as always. It’s situated to become a top tier deck once nerfs hit in a few weeks. It only added a couple new cards but its burn game plan is as potent as ever.

–Paladin is the uncontested king of board based strategies. Nothing is capable of matching into paladin’s overwhelming stat presence. The divine shields and buff synergies are too much for any other class to bully pure paladin off board through minion trades. Its total dominance over the board chokes out any and every other strategy for classes wanting to develop minions. This deck will get hit with nerfs in a few weeks.

–Outcast demon hunter is oppressive and probably gets nerfed in a few weeks. You can’t leave ANY minions on board, otherwise you just get hit with a mega-bloodlust on a stick. But like all other decks… it just loses to triple blood. If it can’t have a board it cant finish a game with pure burst from hand, so hard control strategies can counter it. Still, for any other deck its pretty damn oppressive. It’s a tad overtuned right now.

–Big warlock is actually quite bad. It dies to the aggressive decks before it gets minions down and also doesn’t beat hard attrition strategies because they can deal with the jailer malganis combo and they can handle big demon summons pretty well too. However it is very polarizing and it is extremely effective at just shutting down any midrangey board based strategy. You can’t play curvestone into this…you get wrekt. It’s not likely to get hit with nerfes, but it is likely to become a common staple for form complaints.

-Control priest is actually quite strong as well. Much like triple blood it feasts on a board heavy meta with minimal from hand burst. Love everlasting + Sister Svalna with a robust thief package makes it quite obnoxious. The most impactful cards of the set for priest are by FAR and away love everlasting and harmonic pop. That board clear is nuts… You will see a LOT of that card in the coming 2 years. And I do mean a LOT. It fits in both aggressive and slow strategies because it isn’t a pure symmetric board clear — it always leaves a body behind for the priest.

Undead priest is also reasonable, but not nearly as good as it was before rotation hit. As predicted, losing voidtouched attendant hurt a ton. Still… it’s competitive enough. Overheal is a joke right now and needs far more support to become good. The shell is way too weak until we see better overheal cards and payoff synergies.

-Tony warrior is a meme. Menagerie warrior could be good if things slowed down. Bedrocknroll is actually a very strong enabler. If you follow it up with lorethemar theorin on 7 then a 34/34 trenchatalker just ends it. It’s currently too slow to handle paladin and big threats don’t work well into triple bloods removal and 70 max HP pool.

-Lightshow mage is too slow for the current meta, but may become extremely powerful if things slow down. It can’t handle an environment with paladin and demon hunter as strong as they are, but it’s statistics don’t represent its true strength. It could become very…very…very good post patch. It has phylactary warlock levels of damage as a finisher.

-Druid is another class that could become a lot stronger post patch. Currently its a bit too slow for paladin and demon hunter and loses to triple blood (theres a theme here isn’t there?). But it has potential to be really good after those 3 classes get hit.

-Face hunter is actually very strong. Its one of the few decks keeping up with the pack at a reasonable pace. Big beast is probably a meme. Its slow and looks pretty bad.

-Overload Shaman is sitting at tier 3. It’s got potential and isn’t nearly as bad as people expected. Turns out summoning a board full of 7 rags all at once is pretty powerful. Who would have guessed? But it does have one very massive achilles heel. The deck can’t summon a board full of rags unless it discounts criminal lineup to zero mana, and to do that it needs to power up and break Jazz bass. Weapon tech hard counters this strategy. A single rustrot viper can ruin its entire game plan.

-Rogue is a hot mess. Miracle has failed to be impactful. it’s too hard to determine whether or not it will be good post rotation. Right now it sees very little play.

TL’DR version

Triple Blood, Paladin, and Demon Hunter are so far ahead of the pack they are choking out the rest of the meta. Expect balance patches in 2 weeks for these 3 classes. The following meta has the potential to diversify a lot. There are a lot of strategies that could come to light once they get some breathing room.

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Good anaylses, but ya left out how mill druid can at least beat blood death knight. I love getting em with the deck

As a shaman player.

Totems are a surprise.

Control is dead. there’s no AOE removal. we have lightning storm. one the scourge or similar and you just lose. since running cards like sylvanas, dirty rat, hex, etc, just fills the deck up with no tempo.

You can get away with midrange decks, until you run into any class with removals.

The 3- card pool is smaller so school teacher is a lot better now.

Brass elemental was overhyped. it’s quite meh, if it had lifesteal instead of taunt, it would be a dream

currently testing the overload package. sometimes punishing. inzah is not a saviour, it just makes it a little easier, once the meta speeds up again, it will be too slow.

Jive is not that good. due to rag not being able to attack… it works now since couple of classes freak out when seeing it for some reason… guess they are scared people will play the copy card the next turn.

7 mana rag deck is a meme deck in my opinion.

Take aways: I am sick of DK, blood dk is a menace, and after seeing four in a row, I conceded and logged off. I won’t return for a couple days. If it’s still all blood dk I will uninstall this game and move on with my life.

This sucks. This whole game isn’t fun anymore.

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The problem right now is that everything either

A:) Loses to full removal piles, of which triple blood is uncontested

or

B:) Can’t contest paladin and demon hunter’s board development and dies to a bunch of hyper buffed 1, 2 and 3 drops

Control priest is a pseudo-triple blood and I was playing that last night with a fair degree of success. Climbed from diamond 5 to Diamond 3 with it, but then I started experimenting with other stuff and fell back down to D5 again. You really can’t experiment in a meta where the top three are as overtuned as they are. Ladder diversity is currently trending toward more and more of the same, with the other non paladin, DK, or DH classes diminishing in play rate.

We’re in a meta dominated by 3 classes. And while the other 8 do see a fair amount of experimentation and play because people want to try out new cards, none of them are working and are not likely to ever work until nerfs hit. This is a power level issue and only balance changes can fix it. Honestly it’s typical of the start of a new expansion. This meta post-rotation is actually the best launch we’ve had in the past two years. Last year we had deck of lunacy mage. As bad as the meta is right now… compared to that it’s actually less egregious.

Take aways: I am sick of DK, blood dk is a menace, and after seeing four in a row, I conceded and logged off. I won’t return for a couple days. If it’s still all blood dk I will uninstall this game and move on with my life.

Triple blood is literal tier S right now. NOTHING beats it. Nothing… and that’s a problem. And with the current iteration, in addition to a big pile of removal you also have banshee. Thanks to banshee triple blood doesn’t just remove all your stuff, it actually wins on board now too. Banshee is a ridiculous card… its power level is through the roof. The deck is guarantee to get hit somehow.

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I agree.

I also think Blood DK was pretty damned broken last cycle but it was hidden by other, more broken things that choked it out.

Has some major issues.

A big Marrowgar is about the only thing that can tame the stats, but even then you need some kind of burst from hand to finish the last little bit of health.

Its down right insane to play your card for health on six and then play a stack of over stat legendary cards on turn seven… without even getting into the new weapon’s effect on the game.

Can we PLEASE stop acting like limiting paladins to class cards is an actual limitation in their builds? People act like paladin has priest-quality minions or something, lol.

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Hahaha, I found the anti-blood dk support group.

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When your worst match up is the mirror, you’ve got a broken deck.

If this is beyond your comprehension, then maybe you should do some study or, idk, apply for disability.

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Or maybe, and hear me out, it’s early in the expansion.

But not too early to know when something is just flat broken.

Look, burry your head in the sand, cry, live in denial, whatever floats your boat.

None of that changes the facts that we have a three class meta that will require balance adjustments to open up space for things that aren’t blood dk, paladin, and DH.

Guess what? As soon as this happens, there’s going to be a new batch of broken crap that will need adjustments!

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It is, because the highest win rate deck is demon hunter based on consistency of play in diamond through legend, not dk.

Demon hunter’s win rate against triple blood is about 25-30%. Triple blood FARMS demon hunter. This is an important thing to consider, because demon hunter is feasting on the other 8 classes which are diminishing in play rate as we speak. It’s win rate is very high NOW… but what happens when its food dries up? Moving forward as the meta continues to trend toward the 3 primary classes playrates increasing and the other classes playrates dwindling demon hunter will do less and less well, because it will encounter an increasing number of triple blood DK players. And triple blood is a devastating red for demon hunter.

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Last night I was looking at the data, specifically matchups…I noticed a trend.

The number of polarizing matchups was nuts. There 90/10 matchups. 80/20 and 70/30 are common. This is probably expected on a new release, but it’s something to watch in the coming week.

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And all the polarization is coming from the 3 main classes.

Paladin polaraizes against everything else that wants to build a board. No other class can play minions into paladin and win. None.

Triple blood polarizes against anything that wants to play minions and doesn’t have an insane game ending burst combo to finish with… which is every deck now that post-rotation lethality went down. It has 70 max health by end of the game, banshee dominates the board, and its removal pile is second to none.

Outcast DH is just overtuned, and its token spam into bloodlust on a stick just gets you. You cant let him have a board for a single turn. If he sticks a couple tokens your already dead. But again… a deck that just hard control the board just wins. His from hand burst is massively diminished, and lady stetheno combos are only “middling” burst damage compared to the crippling game ending jace fell spell comboes we saw pre rotation.

The other 8 classes are just feeding win rates into the big 3 because no other strategy is as fast or as sturdy as those.

Well… big warlock is also polarizing. You cant play midrange into it. It cheats big game ending stats onto the board way too fast. However it does not have significant from hand burst, and apart from a few dar’khans and a movement it has no other burn damage, so while significant it’s not overwhelming (the curse package only fits into imp lock which is a completely separate deck and is far worse overall). That amount of burn can be healed through. So a removal deck that can just hard delete jailer and malganis and handles the big threats with targeted removal just wins. However if your deck is midrangey… you just lose. So yeah, its another very polarizing spread.

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its funny I been saying all along that blood was limiting creative deck design space, that it was always too good and people told me “meh it’s a tier 3 deck” “lol complaining about a tier 3 deck” well blood hardly changed but all the other classes did and now all of a sudden everyone is talking about how it’s S-tier!

Seems everyone else losing power is the straw that broke the camels back

Blood is doing what it always did, heal, remove, discover answers all day long is part of the fault, scale out of range of direct damage combos is another and that it has a single card that snipes a card from board hand and deck with discover multiple times makes it beat combo.

do you have deckstring ?

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The support group is growing strong in here. How’s the echo chamber going with incorrect information being thrown around? It’s like a miniature-sized reddit as this point.

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feel free to correct the misinformation and add something meaningful to the topic then ?

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Feel free to look at the correct data anytime you want within hs-replay. That might take away from all the crying though.

so your post is tldr “kinda wanna stop by to complain about to problem, but I can’t be arsed to actually do anything about it” ?

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Imagine taking the same amount of time looking at data around the decks then whining about them on a forum.