With the amount of minions offered in the tavern and the amount added each tier it’s an increase that is negated by the number of choices. Sure they might get less than 1% chance increase to get a specific tribe minion but that also means it may not be the minion they want.
They could be on tier 6 and rolling and see nothing but the tier 1 tribe minions that they don’t want. So yeah great they got a tribe they wanted because nobody else played that tribe but it’s worthless and as such it didn’t increase their chances to make their board better. Just getting a tribe because nobody is playing it isn’t good enough in BG’s. It needs to be playable and useful to your build.
The question should be reworded to say “Minions that are meaningful aren’t showing up for me”. Basically saying “Well i am on Tier 5 so i should be getting all tier 5 Dragons not worthless tier 1’s”. That’s not how BG’s works.
That’s just comedy. You remind me of the joke replies on reddit or 4chan where people say “every probability is always 50-50: it will either happen or it will not”.
No: if others are not picking dragons: you get a higher probability to see dragons the end.
Nothing should be reworded. The OP asks if others are not picking dragons: will he see more dragons. The answer is obviously: yes he will probably see more dragons (there will be a higher probability to see dragons) and there’s no way around that.
That’s just the point. The OP WANTS the high roll because he feels that if he is playing a single tribe his tavern rerolls should be providing him with something that isn’t statistically possible with a true random. He wants the moon and doesn’t understand why it’s not obtainable.
Theoretically he should be. Just getting a minion of that tribe doesn’t mean it’s playable. It needs to be useful and from a tribe they are looking for.
Probably not the best way to measure. Take the Poet Dragon for instance. It’s FAR better to not triple it even if you could buy the triple. There’s several minions that work like that and throw it off.
Best to look at the odds of getting the key build minions base don the tier they are at and their buying potential and how many are left in the tavern(which is always unknown).
I already asked you to do this, but know you can’t. What I am saying won’t make sense until you learn more math, and I’m not here to teach you to math.
I don’t believe I posed a very common example, but NeonGhost above says there is almost no disadvantage at all even if several others are picking Dragons, so I posed an extreme example to make a point.
It’s obviously a disadvantage to have several others competing for cards you need, and it’s kinda weird we have to explain that.
That’s why i said going by key cards is probably better. I mean cards like Brann and Titus can basically decide a lobby on who gets them depending on how good the player is and what are the tribes in lobby. Those are what you are looking for anyway not the throw away minions of the tribe/neutrals.
That person is being purposefully dense. If someone takes the higher tier cards (no one wants tier 1-2 cards) then the chance of you getting the same higher tier cards they have taken goes down significantly. So if someone has all the tier 1-2 quillboar it doesn’t affect your chances of getting tier 3 quillboar (pretty sure this is what neon was trying to articulate). Not to say your chances of rolling into a good unit are good, but the chance has gone down by up to 1/10 if someone has taken just 1 tier 4 unit that you need. Plus everyone else’s chance is lowered and everyone else is getting chances to roll the same card you need, and if it’s in someone else’s shop then rerolling again is giving even less of a chance. It’s obvious that this is the case if you just play even 1 game but also its common sense.
But it’s not that simple since other cards are being taken out of the pool, too. While there’s one less copy of hte minion you want, there’s also fewer minions.
But this isn’t what was asked.
And the answer to this is a firm no. Nothing about this scenario increases the number of dragons in your shop.
You will have rng just like everyone else and can easily go many refreshes without seeing speciific tribes or units.
While you might have some minor statistical change, in practice you won’t notice much of a difference if any at all in your rolls.
You are replying to two different people. And you’re still blatantly wrong. The probability of getting dragons is absolutely higher if no one else if pulling dragons out of the tavern.
Since you probably want to say “it’s not CERTAIN they will get more dragons”, learn to express yourself better on scientific subjects.
The details don’t matter. It was dumb to declare a firm “no” when they asked if they would probably get more dragons. If you wanted to say “it’s not certain they would get more dragons” learn to type more clearly.
I have more pressing things to do than to create Excel sheets for your personal Vendetta(s) on the forum, but on the DIFFERENT subject (moving of goalposts) on if it’s low significance: you’re probably wrong.
when they prove you flat wrong, we can ignore those pesky details, right?
Except for the fact that I’m 100% right and you look like the back end of a horse over this one… but we can continue to igore inconvenient truths, right?
twice of almost nothing is still almost nothing 