Tinkmaster Overnerf, is that you? 
Yep, with a 27% chance (1 - 10 * 9 * 8 / (11 * 10 * 9) = 3/11 ~ 0,27).
Is that even a word? 
As for what the nerf should be, in my opinion — dunno, it wouldn’t even be my prime candidate (Pipsi Paladin is the real meta tyrant (well, one of) ; a bit more seriously, perhaps, problematic Shaman stuff is still there), but I suppose making the Shopper a 5-5 would be just enough to make it less of a power outlier, although they might just kill it all to satisfy the community and make Rexxar the one true king of aiming for the face again. That’d be kinda sad, with yet another class disappearing into obscurity once again, since the DH has virtually nothing else in terms of good stuff.
PS Maybe I’d prefer something like 4-5 even, but tradeable.
UPD: The formula was not rendered properly, corrected it.