I just wanted to complain about the initial legendary draft in Arena. I am tired of seeing three neutral cards in the beginning and zero class cards. In my opinion, there should be two class cards and a single neutral card. I just feel a big letdown every time that I see three neutral legendaries at the start because generally I pick a certain class hoping to try out the legendaries from the recent expansion. Anyone else have any complaints or suggestions on the current Arena experience?
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Hearthstone: Hey how about Thalnos as your legendary?
Me: how about not a 1/1 that is replaceable by 12 other cards 
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The entire format is just too extreme at the draft randomness by inception. They should make a new format that is half-drafting half-non-drafting. That way you’ll have some kind of synergy to start with.
E.g. start with an excavation package and then draft the other 2/3rds of the deck or whatever.
The game is just dull if no synergy exists anyway.
There is supposedly a major overhaul coming early this year. Have to see if they can get Arena back on track as it’s pretty miserable experience ATM.
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The whole drafting portion is trash to begin with. You get to speculate on a legendary pick 1 and may see zero cards that go with it. How about picking the legendary last instead of first once i know what, if any, synergies i have.
Also i kind of wish they would let you draft more than 30 cards and make cuts before entering the match. Like draft 35 or even 40 cards and remove unwanted ones to land at 30 cards. Give you a better chance of having a functional deck in the end.
Or have 4 choices per pick instead of 3. Theres lots of tweaks they could make.
My last arena run I was a hunter and I drafted 5 costumed singers and 2 secret starbows and I was praying for at least a couple secrets lol I got none. FIVE costumed singers… I did it to myself but damn a couple secrets would’ve made it a sick deck
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Being last is no help, because you don’t know what cards you should be picking at the start either.
It’s just broken if it’s not partially synergistic and partially drafting.
The game has only the extremes of 100% drafting or netdecking.
There is a big gap in the “market” for a partly-drafted format.
I know other people have posted about Nebula being broken in arena but I thought that I’d like to confirm that it is very easy to discover Kologarn, sometimes multiple times. This sort of swing just feels way too extreme.
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You imply there, that the Devs might have tweaked it because I doubt the pool of minions is that small to get that too often.
I wouldn’t put it past them.
I had a recent game where I got Kologarn four times on the same turn. I was actually a priest and discovered Nebula from Hipster. Then I discovered Farseer Nobundo from Grace of the Highfather. Based on my overall game experience in arena, the pool of 8 mana minions does appear to be quite small and that Kologarn can be discovered easily. I would be curious to find out the actual odds however.
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Just open the collection (with crafting enabled if you don’t have all cards), and check the 8-drops of the expansions enabled this season (not the same expansions as Standard) and divide 100 by their number for the percentage chance.
If you have at least ~30-40 samples that show it way off the expected behavior it’s probably safe to assume it’s doctored because that’s not a skewed distribution so no much sampling is needed (if it works as advertised) .
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I don’t think that math is quite right since you are having a choice between three cards, two times in one play. Also, I never see the same card generated twice during a single choice between the three, which implies that these odds are not totally independent events (I’m talking about probability theory here when I say “independent”). Thus, it is not as simply as divide 18 (I did as you suggested and found that there are 18, 8-drops in total) by 100. So I’m basically thinking that the formula is 1/18 for the first card, 1/17 for the second, 1/16 for the third, since the odds should increase after each card. My knowledge of statistics is a bit limited, but I don’t think that the multiplication rule of probability would apply here since these are not independent events, so I am kinda stuck on calculating the odds. Could you assist me? The second discover is considered an independent event, so that should not affect the math.
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18 drops, you pick 1 out of 3, two times, so that’s
3/18*2 = 1/3 = 33%
As far as I know, you CAN get the same drop offered twice, so this should work
Multiplication here is actually an addition (3/18 + 3/18) = 2*3/18 = 6/18 = 1/3 = 33%
EDIT: Nevermind, looks too high xD This might be above my paygrade
EDIT 2: I just realized I was calculating the wrong thing (arena picks)
My bad. Calculation is 3/18* 3/18 = 0,02777… ~2,8%
They have to be independent discovers
The question if you can get the same drop offered twice is actually really important in the formula. I do not believe that it is possible so my math will reflect this. The probability addition rule seems relevant here, so I think that the way to do this is, (1/18) 0.055 + (1/17) .058 + (1/16) .0625 = .1755, or 17.5% of discovering Kologarn in arena. Also, there are two attempts so it appears to be reliable.
But it is
You can have 4-5 of anything in Arena
What are we even trying to calculate otherwise? Aren’t we calculating the odds of getting offered Kologarn twice in a row or something?
Although that’s kinda sus. I haven’t played arena in long time, but I think I remember there being some logical order by which you won’t be offered two late-game cards back to back
But if the pool is just 8-drops, we definitely calculated the correct solution.
I think there is some confusion. I was trying to calculate the odds of discovering Kologarn a single time after one use of the card. This has nothing to do with drafting multiple copies of Nebula. I was mostly trying to show Carnivore that the pool of minions is actually very small and the ease of discovering Kologarn in arena.
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Well, it’s definitely independent. So if there’s 3 cards to choose from, and a pool of 18, it’s 3/18~16,67%, and if you did it twice in a row in the same way, it’s 3/18*3/18 ~ 2.78%
You’re right with the 3-choice and I should had considered it.
18 is a VERY low number, So it’s normal to get it.
PS see the next post, for the basic math.
A helpful calculation in those things is to start with the chance for something to NOT happen, 15/18, so to get it in 2 tries is 1- (15/18)^2 = 30.5…% which is pretty high.
Now that I am done playing a couple of weeks of holiday brawls (Wacky Waxy Winter Veil & Gift Exchange), I am back to playing Arena, since Standard looks uninteresting.
I have picked two of the same 8-drop from Nebula a couple of times.
I finished one Shaman Arena run that went 5-3 and started second Shaman run afterwards. Both decks had one Nebula, and I could have drafted a 2nd Nebula for the last draft, but I chose not to, since I was going for an Asteroid build.
I don’t know how good Nebula is in Standard right now, but it’s insanely broken in Arena.
https://imgur.com/a/amevn8O
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