What a scam you got going on with this event. Completed the event and ranked the gem to level 6 and never saw a gem over three stars. Seen other gems drop that were not the gem I was going for even though the event has a 50% colossal drop rate on 5*. Wish the developers would be fired. Waste of money.
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When you use an eternal legendary or legendary crest, you have a 4.5% chance that the resulting gem is a 5-star gem. The event gives a 50% chance that, when that happens, the 5-star gem will be a colossal which means there’s a 2.25% chance, for every crest, to give you a colossal. Then you have to factor in the drop rates for the different qualities, i.e.
- Quality 2 - 75%
- Quality 3 - 20%
- Quality 4 - 4%
- Quality 5 - 1%
So, the chance of a crest giving you a colossal, higher than Quality 3, is 5% of 2.25%, i.e. 0.1125%
Let’s say you used 500 crests during the event…
- Chance that a crest gives you a colossal higher than Quality 3 = 0.1125% = 0.001125
- Chance that a crest does not give you a colossal higher than Quality 3 = 0.998875
- Chance that none of X crests will give you a colossal higher than Quality 3 = (0.998875)^X
- Chance that none of 500 crests will give you a colossal higher than Quality 3 = (0.998875)^500 = 0.56960243
In other words, roughly 57% of players wouldn’t get a Quality 4 or 5 colossal using 500 crests.
This is entirely down to players not understanding statistics and how rare stuff actually is before they spend their money on it. You got the result that over half of players would expect to get, if they spent 500 crests on this event.
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