When ever I try to temper my boots with mobility- paying the ‘random’ price of trying to get simple movement speed, I get ‘Mobility Cooldown Reduction’ 90% of the time- I have bricked several great boots over long spans of time. I don’t even know what this ‘Mobility cooldown reduction’ applies to (evade?).
I no longer believe getting this simple feature of fast movement speed is random. Maybe I will start counting but it feels like the odds of getting Movement Speed are very unfavorable. So I thought I would ask … what are other people experiencing?
We suspect that for some reason you get the temper you just got more often but this could also help you as well.
We have no evidence or confirmation tempers are weighted but we definitely know enchanting is weighted and its hard to find confirmation of that as well.
When you hover over the skills in the skill tree there are tabs with these tags. The ones that have the Mobility tag are mobility skills. Off the top of my head skills like Trample, Dash, Teleport… among others.
This is just pure fantasy and there is no proof here on this. WE can suspect you roll the same thing you just rolled ( I think this too) but it has no actual basis in fact. Could be human bias. They have not reported any bugs on this and its almost end of season. Probably just our brain playing tricks.
I agree with you but there is nothing to back it up with hard facts. Some streaks are expected and I had many failures early in season and then I hit more late. We are hardwired to remember the failures and bad streaks that we dont mention the good streaks as much. Any bug or tempering weights would have been found by now by the community at large with hard number evidence. Im an evidence guy. Show me the proof cause if not I just say my brain broke!
WE were guessing on the mythic drop rate. Its not like Bliz said its 2% and then we found out it was lower. It was us speculating on 2% the whole time.
another kooky theory with absolutely no data to support it other than biased human perception…
When I temper I keep junk items of the same type handy. if I get the same undesired roll twice I switch to a junk item and keep rolling till the streak stops and I get something else, then I go back to the item I actually want to temper.
Does it work? - I Dunno… it does seem that once I break the streak on a junk item I do not get the same result again for at least a few rolls
If it “works” is it just a voodoo mind trick I’m playing on myself? - most likely but I still do it
EDIT: One thing to keep in mind is that *(Traditional) computers are literally not capable of true random. they use carefully developed algorithms to emulate randomness, and can over a large enough sample produce a result that would be predicted by probability models.
Another personal observation: While developing loot tables and trying to tweak the rarity of certain items in Unity for a bad game that no one but me will ever play, I ran tests trying to get items to be about as frequent or infrequent as I wanted them to be by adjusting the amt of the range that landed on a particular item.
In these tests I had the benefit of executing the RNG roll method directly without having to click a UI so I could execute and record tens of thousands of “rolls” in a few seconds. upon analyses of the results, I can say beyond the shadow of a doubt I observed unexplainable streaks of the same result, while still coming close to expected statistical outcomes over the entire data set.
In some cases, an item that was .5 or less out of 100 would keep coming up over and over. This was implemented using the default Random() class in C# and I’d bet Blizzard is using something more sophisticated, but it seems entirely plausible to me that certain “Random” algorithms are prone to patterns.
EDIT - Correction (sort of)
As Urza pointed out in his reply there are physical machines and quantum computers that can use systems that are not entirely dependent on predetermined coding and can generate what their creators claim to be true random, but… there are researchers who doubt this and suspect there are still patterns, AND how many people think any game company is running physical machines or quantum computers in their datacenters to generate your tempering rolls?
Either way it meets their goal, which is to get you to gather backups (whether true junk or worthy backups)… which means they got us to stare at a lot of junk & a lot of stats… which means we were good and well hoodwinked.
The goal posts will keep shifting. More accessible Mythics & slightly more relevant uniques were one “correction”… next season we’re staring at ALL Ancestrals because ancestrals are ALL GA’ed. Which means before that, we’ll also be staring at ALL Legendaries again, like nothing changed.
I just can’t believe this was them bumbling into things. It has to be deliberate, which would mean dev team is Gargamels all the way down.
GAs certainly are weighted. I have found so many items with Life Per Second, Life on Hit and Maximum Health GAs it isn’t even funny. Anything else is far far more rare.
This is a fallacy. Computers can do random numbers but humans just normally use easier methods but they absolutely can do random numbers using entropy if they want. Pseudo random is easier and for most part 99.99% good enough.
“Engagement” as in “make people have to pick up & inspect more items” vs “make people want to pick up & inspect more items” is an icky choice. Idk how a supposed gamer dev chooses #1.
I’ve read enough testimonials of people rolling 14 characters per season, or slow-leveling 1 character & enjoying the scenery, or playing the loot grind even when there’s no “new” endgame just bc the game is fun (me in D2)… that idek who their target demo would be if they went with #1. Compulsive giga-blasters? That’s got to be like 0.01% of the player base.
Actually as I’ve said before it would have been/be better to have gone with D2’s unique rolls, Skills at least they worked and the players were happier😒 Tempering
Yes tempering and masterworking makes the game more fun. Exciting, and lasts longer. You get to do it all over again. Its good content. VoH will be so good because you can find the item and go to blacksmith and temper and masterwork the item.
Which means before that, we’ll also be staring at ALL Legendaries again, like nothing changed.
Tempering
A more worthless system I can’t imagine 