A lot of the Legendaries/Uniques drop are more focused base on the zone, maybe try elsewhere? I’ve just gotten to World Tier 4 and yet to see it drop (Knowing full well it is for WT4 only). Some Legendaries not able to be looted as Aspects are dropped a LOT more frequently in certain spots which I’ve had a LOT of luck getting that way.
After 30,000 hours, the only thing I never got my hands on was a Tyraels drop 
I pray I get a chase item here so I can vendor it for views. kekw
Do you like the idea of what he said though?
I dont want it to drop more, but i WOULD like to know what are the parameters for it to drop…
Whats the minimum character lvl?
Whats the minimum nm dung?
World dung?
World tier?
Etc…
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This response is the kind that just makes a person sigh in disbelief.
400,000 people is more than large enough for a representative sample size of a total population of 3.5-4 million.
Also consider that people that play D4 the most, are more likely to use Discord than the casual player.
If such a large sample size of the most ardent D4 fans have not confirmed a single drop, what makes you think that all the drops are just magically going to the people not on discord?
Using the provided example you responded to, if those 400,000 players all logged one hour in the content where the item drops, and even just one dropped, that’s the same as a single player needing to run a bot non-stop, with zero interruption for 45.5 years. But hey, it’s supposed to be rare right?
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They can do like “shards of Harlequin Crest” collect 10 to craft a full item. This is how many of the super rare uniques in PoE is acquired through divination cards.
But in PoE you can trade everything so you can slowly farm towards it. After a full day of farming then you can buy 1 out of the 5 divination card required for Mageblood. Then after a week of hardcore farming you can get enough to buy the rest of the cards and hand it in to get a Mageblood.
D4 is feast or famine. Either it drops or it doesnt. There is nothing to work towards here. There is not a goal you can set yourself to get a Harlequin Crest.
Diablo 4 also needs more items on the scale of rarity. Right now every unique is pretty easy to get. Which is like on a scale of 1 to a 100 of “easyness” to acquire about a 10/100
Then you have the very few “super uniques” that are like 100000/100.
The game needs more items in between. Maybe the only item that are slightly harder than the rest is Tempest Roar, just need more of those.
6 Likes
1st I would have to like the idea of OP stat sticks, I don’t. I played PoE from Metamorph to Expedition, then sent an email to support to have them delete my account. I vaguely recall having a HH drop using it a few times and thinking, wow this is stupid, and then vendoring it.
I mean, right now we just plain don’t have enough data one way or the other.
Here are the ONLY 3 facts we know so far, as of 6-18-23, regarding Shako’s drop rate:
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It is a unique item.
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It has been confirmed to have dropped at least once.
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It is not a “guaranteed” drop.
That’s it. That’s not a lot of information to work from, certainly not enough to cry “bugged rate” or “buff it now pl0x.”
Those 3 facts taken in aggregate allow us to infer that Shako won’t drop at all until at least WT3, which by default means “most people” (I use quotes because technically, someone managed to get into WT4 at character level 4 the other day) won’t be able to see this until at least WT2’s capstone dungeon is cleared. Which again means “most people” will be level 50+ and have completed the campaign. And There was an article the other day about how “most people” are still IN the campaign.
So the idea of “millions of hours played without a single drop” is flawed logic at best, if not intentionally disingenuous. An overwhelming amount of those hours literally do not count. I estimate spending at least an hour cumulatively in town between the past two days - I’m level 61 and in WT3 - just sorting through my stash, fiddling with Aspects, chatting with my clan, alt-tabbed to my build planner, etc. Yet those are “technically” 2 hours played at WT3. “Technically” that’s time played in a difficulty that allowed uniques. See what I’m saying here?
I can’t count the time I spent picking my nose at work the other day as time spent actively advancing scientific knowledge on aerodynamics. Especially given that I don’t even work in the airplane industry. I sell lumber for a living. So extrapolating that, we can’t necessarily use the first 200,000 years humans have been around, and count that against how long it takes to build an airplane. Similarly, we can’t even count “hours played” at WT4 unless we somehow quantify whether those hours were spent actually doing things that would create chances for Shako to drop, or whether those hours were spent spamming emotes near the Kyova waypoint.
Now, season 1 is allegedly coming out in a month or so, and will last for presumably several months. If we haven’t seen a significant uptick in confirmed Shako’s by the end of S1 (I’m guessing close to Xmas time 2023), even in Eternal realm, THAT’s when I would raise an eyebrow.
But right now? Not even 3 weeks into full launch? When most people are still chasing Lilith on WT’s 1 or 2? That’s just too soon. If anything, I’m actually surprised we even got the confirmed drop we did.
Equating time spent to coins flipped doesn’t really work unless you normalize the average flips per unit time in some manner. Like, the person who spends an hour killing 3 mobs because they’re trying some sort of silly proof-of-concept (like the D2 pacifist runner) is not going to have the same net chance per unit time efficiency as someone spending an hour killing 9,001 mobs because they’re exploiting the (now nerfed) NM dungeon reset glitch.
I liken it more to the lottery than anything else. To start with, not “everyone” plays the lottery. Secondly, even those that do, often have different odds because I might be the kind of person who only buys 1 ticket if I happen to notice the jackpot is beyond an arbitrary threshold, whereas YOU might have a regular set of 3 different numbers you play every drawing without fail. The mathematical odds are abysmal either way, but I think we would probably both agree that you should NEVER gamble money you actually cannot afford to lose.
If you can’t afford to flush the powerball ticket down the toilet, don’t even buy it to begin with. Similarly, if your time or effort or motivation or build or whatever is causing you to chase this carrot, is ENTIRELY dependent upon actually GETTING the carrot, you’ve already lost.
I don’t think we have enough information on the carrot to determine if it needs to be bigger. However I DO think that some people need to stop worrying so much about the carrot in the first place.
No, it doesn’t. Stop begging for changes to drop rates because you haven’t gotten an item you want yet.
And here ive spend the past 20 levels farming just for the Ice Brais sorc pants.
Wait a year or two. Blizzard will increase the drop rate. By then, there’s way better items.
You can trade for those items in D2 and PoE because hundreds of thousands of bots are playing 24/7 to farm them. That’s how the economy works.
It’s a crude example that would demonstrate how rare the item is.
Obviously the number isn’t EXACTLY 45.5 years of non stop playing for one Harlequin Crest. The example isn’t meant to determine an exact analysis of the average time it takes to find Harlequin Crest.
I would also say it’s safe to assume that the group represented on Discord have generated enough pulls on the slot machine to equal to several hundred thousand hours of gameplay in which the item should be able to drop.
The data clearly show that the helm is beyond incredibly rare. The data being 400,000 players, assuming those players have each logged at least one hour of monster killing in Torment difficulty with no confirmed drops.
5 Likes
The one confirmed drop I know of was in champ’s demise, so it’s not an uber lilith drop. And you can estimate the droprate by how there’s a single confirmed drop in over 2 weeks with millions of players playing the game.
There are not millions of players in WT4
Even if it is just 1 million in WT4, im sure that is slightly high but lets just use a whole number to make the math a bit simpler… 1 million people, and obviously they are in WT4 so they are not casual by any stretch of the imagination, so lets say at minimum 3 hours a day and some as high as 12 a day? We will average it out to 7 per day, thats 7 hours multiplied by 1 million players = 7 million hours played per day in WT4, minus say 2 days to get to WT4, is 10 days, not counting early access, with is 70 million hours and only 1 confirmed drop
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Even if there’s only 100000 players in WT4 (which is certainly not true), considering how those 100000 players have only found one harlequin crest in 2 weeks you would have to play the game for 200000 weeks to get one. Have fun with that.
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Here’s my issue: if we’re NOT doing actual analysis backed by hard data, but instead just “assuming” stuff and asking for changes to the game based on “how it feels” as opposed to “how it is,” then it really just comes down to a shouting contest. Whichever wheel makes the biggest squeak will get the grease.
And that’s fine, if all you’re trying to do is please people in the current moment. But people are fickle, and their whims may change on tomorrow’s wind. I think facts speak louder than feelings, and right now we have precious few of one and way too much of the other.
Current drop rate of WT4 uniques is absolutely, nonsensicaly low. End of story, as much as I love this game, there aren’t THAT Many uniques that game could sacrifice 6 of them to be realistically nonaccesible for overwhelming majority of dedicated no life players. I like to believe that WT5 is going to offer reasonable drop rate for WT4 uniques. HOWEVER I see no reason why to wait for that. Current state is simply a mistake.
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